US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135250 times)
TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #650 on: March 04, 2012, 06:56:29 PM »

Well, I didn't even get to church this morning because I have a bad head cold and stayed up all night doing homework, so you're probably marginally more right with God than I am at the moment anyway. Wink + Tongue I'm planning to go to Nones on Wednesday instead.

I was playing around with upstate and it's actually possible to make every district along the eastern border pretty likely Democratic most years assuming Bill Owens doesn't get complacent. You just have to make clever use of Westchester, Poughkeepsie, and the Capital District.

That's why the old map is not a Democratic gerrymander overall even though the downstate portion is somewhat (see pages of argument about Orthodox Jews). The old upstate map is quite friendly to Republicans in many places, in particular the areas around the earmuffs. From my perspective, New York politics is perhaps too strange of an animal for me to even be able to determine what a safe district for each party is upstate, but it certainly looks more like a Republican gerrymander upstate to me.
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BRTD
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« Reply #651 on: March 04, 2012, 07:04:33 PM »

So it turns out you don't even need the black areas, you can connect it to Park Slope and the area is already 62% Obama at less than 200k residents. I should draw that one too. By the line of argument being used here though Nadler's district is an anti-Semitic one since it's basically the same principle in neutralizing the areas in Brooklyn, though it does so in a rather ugly way.
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Nathan
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« Reply #652 on: March 04, 2012, 07:06:14 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 07:09:24 PM by Nathan »

That's why the old map is not a Democratic gerrymander overall even though the downstate portion is somewhat (see pages of argument about Orthodox Jews). The old upstate map is quite friendly to Republicans in many places, in particular the areas around the earmuffs. From my perspective, New York politics is perhaps too strange of an animal for me to even be able to determine what a safe district for each party is upstate, but it certainly looks more like a Republican gerrymander upstate to me.

Upstate politics is highly personal (see Carl Paladino approaching or breaking sixty per cent pretty much everywhere west of the Finger Lakes while losing almost two-to-one statewide) and if somebody, especially an incumbent, gets a district that's just a few PVI points towards his or her party he or she is pretty much impossible to expunge except in wave years. Districts that are considered 'safe' in upstate New York have PVIs around 5 or 6. The only non-Westchester upstate district with a PVI greater than 6 in either direction is the earmuffs.

BRTD, if you want to challenge yourself, you should also be using the Orthodox areas in Midwood and points south for this exercise.
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BRTD
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« Reply #653 on: March 04, 2012, 07:09:39 PM »

Ah well that too probably isn't too hard. Actually if Velazquez lives where Sam says she does she'd probably end up representing this district and it could even be Hispanic majority (though I'd prefer to keep it in Brooklyn, I really don't like the districts that spill all around multiple boroughs, especially since this is often done for no real discernible reason.)
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BRTD
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« Reply #654 on: March 04, 2012, 07:32:33 PM »

OK here is a combination of hasids, hipsters, Hispanics and some Asians. Though the Hispanics probably won't like it since it probably won't elect a Hispanic once Velázquez retires, (26.4% Hispanic VAP now) but it's 66% Obama and obviously still safe D. I even got the hasids in Williamsburg who whine about female cyclists in:

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NY Jew
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« Reply #655 on: March 04, 2012, 10:33:52 PM »

OK here is a combination of hasids, hipsters, Hispanics and some Asians. Though the Hispanics probably won't like it since it probably won't elect a Hispanic once Velázquez retires, (26.4% Hispanic VAP now) but it's 66% Obama and obviously still safe D. I even got the hasids in Williamsburg who whine about female cyclists in:


you do realize this seat could easily elect someone like Ruben Diaz.
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BRTD
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« Reply #656 on: March 05, 2012, 12:09:39 AM »

He is from the Bronx, so no.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #657 on: March 05, 2012, 12:17:06 AM »

like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"
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krazen1211
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« Reply #658 on: March 05, 2012, 12:21:37 AM »

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez. 

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat? Tongue

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?
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BRTD
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« Reply #659 on: March 05, 2012, 12:25:13 AM »

like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

Is there any such notable person in the district? I have a tough time seeing them get the hipsters' vote.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #660 on: March 05, 2012, 12:33:50 AM »

like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

Is there any such notable person in the district? I have a tough time seeing them get the hipsters' vote.
they wouldn't need the hipster vote.
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« Reply #661 on: March 05, 2012, 03:39:34 AM »

I'm almost done with a pretty interesting map:

-Borough Park, Midwood and the really conservative areas in Gravesend (though I understand the Jews there aren't Hasids) in a majority black seat.
-The conservative Russian areas in a plurality black seat.
-Staten Island actually in a Democratic-leaning seat.
-The long awaited Brooklyn white liberals seat, though it's actually a Brooklyn/Queens mixture with some distinctly non-liberal parts in Queens.
-A left overs seat which is also Hispanic plurality and Velazquez probably wouldn't mind.

Now here's the crazy thing, the white liberal seat that is majority white VAP also has the highest Obama % out of all of those except the Hispanic plurality leftovers seat that has few blacks. You can draw some crazy things in NYC.
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muon2
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« Reply #662 on: March 05, 2012, 08:49:12 AM »

Source from within the Cuomo administration on current proposed lines: "If they are drafting now then they are drafting for a veto."

Source

It appears that Cuomo is looking for a constitutional change to redistricting in the future in exchange for his support of a map this cycle.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #663 on: March 05, 2012, 08:55:28 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2012, 09:00:04 AM by traininthedistance »

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez.  

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat? Tongue

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?

NOTA.  A "hipster" district would be pretty similar to what I already proposed as the Ninth District here:


though it would withdraw somewhat from South Brooklyn to take in (the whiter areas of) Fort Greene, Ditmas Park, and more of East Village/Alphabet City- the one part of Manhattan that does belong there.  There would be various ripple effects, but the surrounding districts could mostly be kept as is.

I suppose Long Island City could also be a reasonable addition.
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muon2
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« Reply #664 on: March 05, 2012, 09:29:31 AM »

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

"Whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is" is Brooklyn's Chinatown (also sort-of considered part of Sunset Park), and it's arguably the main reason for the continued existence of Velasquez's district: they will raise holy hell if they're not in a district with Manhattan's Chinatown as well, and they seem to prefer being part of an Asian-Hispanic coalition district with Velasquez.  

I continue to maintain that "hipsters" are a coherent CoI which keeps getting unfairly sliced and diced in all of these maps.  There are plenty of white liberals in Brooklyn, why don't they have a seat? Tongue

Hmph. Would you attach them to the east side, the west side, or to Astoria?

NOTA.  A "hipster" district would be pretty similar to what I already proposed as the Ninth District here:


though it would withdraw somewhat from South Brooklyn to take in (the whiter areas of) Fort Greene, Ditmas Park, and more of East Village/Alphabet City- the one part of Manhattan that does belong there.  There would be various ripple effects, but the surrounding districts could mostly be kept as is.

I suppose Long Island City could also be a reasonable addition.

What are the BVAPs on your CD 6, 10, and 11?
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #665 on: March 05, 2012, 09:38:50 AM »


What are the BVAPs on your CD 6, 10, and 11?

45.5, 51.0, 51.7.  Enough voters in Meeks' district are either black Hispanics being counted as Hispanic, or "Other" voters from the Caribbean, such that in actuality he might be over 50%.  And if he isn't, I would be surprised and dismayed if it was required to take him into Nassau to hit a magic number when that seat will safely elect an AA anyway.
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muon2
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« Reply #666 on: March 05, 2012, 10:07:40 AM »


What are the BVAPs on your CD 6, 10, and 11?

45.5, 51.0, 51.7.  Enough voters in Meeks' district are either black Hispanics being counted as Hispanic, or "Other" voters from the Caribbean, such that in actuality he might be over 50%.  And if he isn't, I would be surprised and dismayed if it was required to take him into Nassau to hit a magic number when that seat will safely elect an AA anyway.

It's an interesting issue. The "Other" category is unusually large in that district, but I don't know if there are any cases that say that they should count as black or as a coalition partner for purposes of electing a black candidate of choice. The difference matters for voting rights purposes, but I suspect that Meeks would take your district if it was helping make other districts lean more D.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #667 on: March 05, 2012, 11:33:45 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2012, 11:36:20 AM by timothyinMD »

Any map that eliminates Bob Turner's seat is unacceptable.  If we have to bend over backward to draw Hispanic and black seats, they can keep two Republican seats.





This shouldn't be that hard, and the map shouldn't look like a piece of garbage, esp in NYC
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Brittain33
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« Reply #668 on: March 05, 2012, 11:43:06 AM »

Any map that preserves the earmuffs and makes them even more urban is a gerry, IMO. Those suburban towns in Monroe County you shed in order to make it more of a D vote sink include Louise Slaughter's home town of Fairport.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #669 on: March 05, 2012, 12:15:07 PM »

Any map that eliminates Bob Turner's seat is unacceptable.  If we have to bend over backward to draw Hispanic and black seats, they can keep two Republican seats.

Any map that:

a) keeps the earmuffs
b) splits the North Country like that
c) goes down to only one AA district in Brooklyn

does things WAY worse than dismantling Turner.  You could very easily make the case for a fair map that eliminates one of Crowley/Ackerman/McCarthy downstate and Gibson upstate, and turns Turner's district in the Orthodox South Brooklyn seat.  Fine, I'd be willing to accept that.  But the map you have is a total non-starter for so many reasons.
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« Reply #670 on: March 05, 2012, 12:45:25 PM »

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #671 on: March 05, 2012, 02:26:18 PM »

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.
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cinyc
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« Reply #672 on: March 05, 2012, 02:47:34 PM »

Any map that preserves the earmuffs and makes them even more urban is a gerry, IMO. Those suburban towns in Monroe County you shed in order to make it more of a D vote sink include Louise Slaughter's home town of Fairport.

The court is likely to draw a least-change map, meaining the earmuffs might actually end up staying.
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muon2
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« Reply #673 on: March 05, 2012, 02:51:04 PM »

Any map that eliminates Bob Turner's seat is unacceptable.  If we have to bend over backward to draw Hispanic and black seats, they can keep two Republican seats.





This shouldn't be that hard, and the map shouldn't look like a piece of garbage, esp in NYC

I have the same question about minority VAPs in the minority districts. What did you get for yours?
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muon2
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« Reply #674 on: March 05, 2012, 02:55:07 PM »

Any map that preserves the earmuffs and makes them even more urban is a gerry, IMO. Those suburban towns in Monroe County you shed in order to make it more of a D vote sink include Louise Slaughter's home town of Fairport.

The court is likely to draw a least-change map, meaining the earmuffs might actually end up staying.

It will be interesting to see since the court is not using political data or incumbent addresses. Much of the current upstate shape is precisely due to those factors. If they aren't there at best they can use communities of interest as a proxy.
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