US House Redistricting: New York

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure your changes to SE Brooklyn would be welcomed by local operatives or either of the two congressmen involved, Muon.

[muon2]

Here's one way to create an incumbent protection map for the downstate area. I assumed that downstate a D district is eliminated while upstate an R seat will go. I think I was able to find home locations for the incumbents, so let me know if I missed one. Here Ackerman and Weiner are placed together in the new CD 5. I also took the liberty of renumbering a couple of districts to better reflect the general pattern of increasing numbers from SE to NW.



CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55%
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54%
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54%
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60%
CD 5 (yellow, Ackerman D, Weiner D): White 52%, Asian 20%, Hispanic 18%; Obama 64%
CD 6 (teal, Meeks D): Black 52%, Hispanic 16%, White 16%; Obama 84%
CD 7 (grey, Crowley D): White 35%, Hispanic 30%, Asian 20%; Obama 74%
CD 8 (slate, Nadler D): White 61%, Asian 21%; Obama 69%
CD 9 (cyan, Grimm R): White 73%; McCain 54%
CD 10 (pink, Towns D): Black 57%, White 23%; Obama 85%
CD 11 (pale green, Clarke D): Black 54%, White 24%; Obama 92%
CD 12 (sky, Velazquez D): Hispanic 61%; Obama 85%
CD 13 (peach, Engel D): White 34%, Black 33%, Hispanic 26%; Obama 79%
CD 14 (olive, Maloney D): White 71%; Obama 80%
CD 15 (orange, Rangel D): Hispanic 46%, Black 28%, White 20%; Obama 93%
CD 16 (lime, Serrano D): Hispanic 63%, Black 30%; Obama 95%

A couple years ago Ackerman moved to Roslyn Heights, so you would have him in McCarthy's district

Thanks, my info is clearly a couple of years old. In any case I was working from Sam's speculation that Ackerman would be most likely to retire if one rep was eliminated.

If there is a compromise pro-incumbent gerrymander, I would imagine that the losses would be an upstate R and a downstate D. Any guesses as to who would be out of a seat in those cases?

I fully expect the downstate D to be Ackerman.  It could be Crowley or Maloney, but Crowley is party boss and Maloney is just younger.  Ackerman is probably close to retiring anyway.

Looking upstate - it could really be anyone.  Probably depends on who the establishment likes least.

[Brittain33]

Long Island's population no longer supports 4 entire districts, so if 5 representatives now live on Long Island because Ackerman has moved to Nassau, one of them is almost certainly out of a seat barring extensive crossover into Queens that are not likely IMO.

[muon2]

I'm not sure your changes to SE Brooklyn would be welcomed by local operatives or either of the two congressmen involved, Muon.

Brooklyn was one of the hardest areas on the map, and I suspect it will pose problems for the real mappers. I assume that I have to protect the minority districts of Velazquez, Town and Clarke, as well as maintain a black majority for Meeks in Queens. I started by drawing Velazquez's district which effectively creates a wall across the northern edge of Brooklyn.

Then I started filling in the three black districts. The black districts all need a lot of extra population and the likely area comes from current CD 9 in SE Brooklyn. If CD 6 expands north instead of west to pick up the population, it's hard to maintain the black majority. CD 6 could push east into Nassau, and then force CD 4 to wrap around the north into Queens following the current CD 5, and allow CD 5 to follow the current path of CD 9 into SE Brooklyn.

In any case, what's left must be divided by the Staten Island and Manhattan districts. There's any number of ways one can cut up SW Brooklyn between the two districts. So I picked one that wasn't too erose, but improved the Staten Island district's R performance.

[muon2]

Long Island's population no longer supports 4 entire districts, so if 5 representatives now live on Long Island because Ackerman has moved to Nassau, one of them is almost certainly out of a seat barring extensive crossover into Queens that are not likely IMO.

True. The 2009 census estimates had Nassau plus Suffolk equal to 20 K less than 4/27 of the state's population. That's another reason to predict Ackerman's elimination in the remap.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure your changes to SE Brooklyn would be welcomed by local operatives or either of the two congressmen involved, Muon.

Brooklyn was one of the hardest areas on the map, and I suspect it will pose problems for the real mappers. I assume that I have to protect the minority districts of Velazquez, Town and Clarke, as well as maintain a black majority for Meeks in Queens. I started by drawing Velazquez's district which effectively creates a wall across the northern edge of Brooklyn.

Then I started filling in the three black districts. The black districts all need a lot of extra population and the likely area comes from current CD 9 in SE Brooklyn. If CD 6 expands north instead of west to pick up the population, it's hard to maintain the black majority. CD 6 could push east into Nassau, and then force CD 4 to wrap around the north into Queens following the current CD 5, and allow CD 5 to follow the current path of CD 9 into SE Brooklyn.

In any case, what's left must be divided by the Staten Island and Manhattan districts. There's any number of ways one can cut up SW Brooklyn between the two districts. So I picked one that wasn't too erose, but improved the Staten Island district's R performance.

Ah sorry, I meant SW.
it should not be supposed that the Hasidic areas are safe for a Republican congressional candidate just because they are safe for a Republican presidential candidate.

[krazen1211]

If there is a compromise pro-incumbent gerrymander, I would imagine that the losses would be an upstate R and a downstate D. Any guesses as to who would be out of a seat in those cases?

I fully expect the downstate D to be Ackerman.  It could be Crowley or Maloney, but Crowley is party boss and Maloney is just younger.  Ackerman is probably close to retiring anyway.

Looking upstate - it could really be anyone.  Probably depends on who the establishment likes least.

Upstate, it really makes sense for the GOP to axe Buerkle and that Dem leaning district. PVI of D+3.

It seems like there's no point in the Slaughter earmuffs anymore. You can just expand Higgins into the western earmuff of Slaughter's district instead.

Instead you get the new upgraded 2010 earmuffs that goes to from Rochester to Syracuse. Obama 67% or so.

[Brittain33]

Instead you get the new upgraded 2010 earmuffs that goes to from Rochester to Syracuse. Obama 67% or so.

Why would Democrats agree to that? In 2002, you had the excuse of a Republican governor and the influence of the White House, and the district being eliminated downstate was Republican. This time, the Democrats have a stronger hand everywhere and are going to lose a seat downstate. I don't see why they'd agree to a Pennsymander-type Democratic district upstate.

[Mr.Phips]

Instead you get the new upgraded 2010 earmuffs that goes to from Rochester to Syracuse. Obama 67% or so.

Why would Democrats agree to that? In 2002, you had the excuse of a Republican governor and the influence of the White House, and the district being eliminated downstate was Republican. This time, the Democrats have a stronger hand everywhere and are going to lose a seat downstate. I don't see why they'd agree to a Pennsymander-type Democratic district upstate.

Exactly.  If Democrats are going to have a downstate district eliminated, they are going to want a Republican district eliminated upstate and a better district for Owens(possibly going into Syracuse). 

[krazen1211]

Instead you get the new upgraded 2010 earmuffs that goes to from Rochester to Syracuse. Obama 67% or so.

Why would Democrats agree to that? In 2002, you had the excuse of a Republican governor and the influence of the White House, and the district being eliminated downstate was Republican. This time, the Democrats have a stronger hand everywhere and are going to lose a seat downstate. I don't see why they'd agree to a Pennsymander-type Democratic district upstate.

I don't know if they would go for that.

The problem is giving Syracuse to Owens is just asking for him to be primaried. Of course, its possible nobody cares about him.

Syracuse does have to be given to a Democrat, though. I see only 2 possibilities.

To elaborate, right now, New York has 8 Republicans. Chopping it down to 7 means upstate has to go 6-5, and carving 5 Republican seats in upstate NY is rather tricky and does require some gerrymandering, imo.

If the Democrats can force upstate to go 7-4 (which is in essence a 2 Republican loss), you do get cleaner lines. I can see how Reed, Lee, and Gibson survive. Hayworth needs some rough lines, but you can chop together a McCain district there. I think the Democrats are going to want to eliminate both Buerkle and Hanna while the GOP is going to want to give Hanna some place he can win.

[Verily]

Here's an attempt at a 6-5 map of upstate. It's hard.



Higgins, NY-27 (Buffalo): 63% Obama
Lee, NY-26 (Buffalo suburbs, Rochester suburbs, Southern Tier): 53% McCain
Slaughter, NY-25 (Rochester, Rochester suburbs, Geneseo): 59% Obama
Reed, NY-24 (Syracuse suburbs, rural areas): 52% McCain (Buerkle could try running in the primary here, too)
Owens, NY-23 (Syracuse, Ithaca, Northern Tier): 62% Obama (Buerkle lives here but couldn't win it, and Owens might lose a primary)
Hanna, NY-22 (Rome, Utica suburbs, Syracuse suburbs, rural areas): 52% McCain
Tonko, NY-21 (Albany, Schenectady, Utica, random college towns, Hudson): 59% Obama
Gibson, NY-20 (random rural places): 49% McCain, by about 1,500 votes
Hinchey, NY-19 (Kingston, Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Middletown, Beacon, Binghampton): 58% Obama
Hayworth, NY-18 (New York exurbs): 52% McCain
Lowey, NY-17 (Westchester, Spring Valley, Nyack): 64% Obama

[Linus Van Pelt]

Good heavens. I take it those tentacles are motivated principally by the need to keep your 20th and 22nd from becoming too swingy, rather than a worry about the Dem percentage of the districts themselves?

[Verily]

Good heavens. I take it those tentacles are motivated principally by the need to keep your 20th and 22nd from becoming too swingy, rather than a worry about the Dem percentage of the districts themselves?

Exactly. Syracuse and Ithaca have to go somewhere, but they're surrounded by GOP-held seats (and contained in a GOP seat in the case of Syracuse) at the moment. Because there are a bunch of rural counties that are only marginal to lean R, the really Democratic areas have to be isolated to create a 6-5 map. Which means the R to be eliminated has to be Buerkle (who lives in Syracuse) in any such situation).

Alternatively, there could be an agreement to eliminate a different R seat while failing to shore up Buerkle, making the assumption that she will lose in the near future anyway. That allows the map to look much neater.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The problem is giving Syracuse to Owens is just asking for him to be primaried. Of course, its possible nobody cares about him.

Owens can just move left like Gillibrand did. She went from the Blue Dogs to like the third or so most liberal member of the Senate.

[cinyc]

Here's an attempt at a 6-5 map of upstate. It's hard.



Higgins, NY-27 (Buffalo): 63% Obama
Lee, NY-26 (Buffalo suburbs, Rochester suburbs, Southern Tier): 53% McCain
Slaughter, NY-25 (Rochester, Rochester suburbs, Geneseo): 59% Obama
Reed, NY-24 (Syracuse suburbs, rural areas): 52% McCain (Buerkle could try running in the primary here, too)
Owens, NY-23 (Syracuse, Ithaca, Northern Tier): 62% Obama (Buerkle lives here but couldn't win it, and Owens might lose a primary)
Hanna, NY-22 (Rome, Utica suburbs, Syracuse suburbs, rural areas): 52% McCain
Tonko, NY-21 (Albany, Schenectady, Utica, random college towns, Hudson): 59% Obama
Gibson, NY-20 (random rural places): 49% McCain, by about 1,500 votes
Hinchey, NY-19 (Kingston, Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Middletown, Beacon, Binghampton): 58% Obama
Hayworth, NY-18 (New York exurbs): 52% McCain
Lowey, NY-17 (Westchester, Spring Valley, Nyack): 64% Obama

Yikes, that's ugly!  

I still think the Democrats' best Upstate plan is for Slaughter to retire (or face off against a Republican) and her heavily inefficient district be carved up and allocated to its neighbors, changing a potential 5-4 map into a 6-3 one.  You kind of do that by separating urban Buffalo from Rochester in her district, but Buffalo and Rochester might have to be further carved up for that to work.

Given that's never going to happen, my guess is Burkle will be the odd woman out as NY-23 takes on more of the Syracuse area to become more Democratic.

I generally exclude the main NYC suburbs from my definition of Upstate, though the outer fringes in Dutchess, Ulster and Orange need to be thrown in to create 9 seats.

[jimrtex]

So if one were going to draw 9 geographically logical districts in upstate it would be:

Buffalo-Niagara Falls (2 districts)
Rochester
Syracuse+ (Rome, Utica?)
Albany-Schenectady-Troy-Saratoga (minus)

The 4 rural districts would then be:

South Tier - Finger Lakes, with perhaps some pieces extending up between Buffalo and Rochester or Rochester and Syracuse.  It will be referred to as Southern Tier, but won't really be that.

North Country, but extending south towards Albany, Utica, Rome, or Syracuse to get enough population.

Mid Hudson, but extending north into the Albany area to make room for the final district.

Binghamton-Ithaca plus wherever it can get enough population, so extending up into the Mohawk Valley or towards the Hudson and down the Delaware to keep it somewhat
compact. 

Everything from Orange and Putnam south considered NYC suburban, with the exception of the part necessary to get enough population for 9 upstate districts?

[krazen1211]

The problem is giving Syracuse to Owens is just asking for him to be primaried. Of course, its possible nobody cares about him.

Owens can just move left like Gillibrand did. She went from the Blue Dogs to like the third or so most liberal member of the Senate.

I guess he could, but Gillibrand didn't have to run in a primary. She was appointed.

Owens might ask for a 50/50 rural seat like he has now. In which case the map is still 6-5 (in terms of PVI) but with the Democrats holding 1 of the 5 Republican seats until Doug Hoffman stops running.


That outcome probably works better for the Democrats, since its nets them 7 total upstate seats (Higgins, Slaughter, somenewdemfromSyracuse, Tonko, Hinchey, Lowery, Owens)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Owens didn't have a primary either; he was selected by the party to run in the 2009 special. He was even a registered independent at the time.

[Lunar]

That's a bit silly to assume Owens would have a primary and would want a more Republican district.  It's almost always easier for an incumbent to win a primary than a general election (with some recent exceptions like Murkowski).  What, six House Democrats in New York lost their general election contests in 2010?  How many lost primaries?

He voted for health care reform and is in no way despised by liberals.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He did something pretty stupid by mentioning that he might vote for Boehner after the election. But he ended up voting for Pelosi anyway which should make that a moot issue. What I don't get is why'd he even mention that, it's obvious he was never planning on voting for anyone besides Pelosi.

[Lunar]

it's obvious he was never planning on voting for anyone besides Pelosi.

Yeah, that obviousness is the key part.  I can't see labor & liberals trying to fund a primary against Owens over that one incident because it was never really in doubt.  And most people probably don't care.

[dpmapper]

Hideous, but it does get all the GOP seats to a +5 PVI at least, Dems to +8.  I'm not even going to pretend that this is realistic, but it was fun nonetheless. 

Blue, Buffalo: Higgins, 64-35 Obama. 
Green, between Buffalo and Rochester: Lee, 53.64-44.88 McCain.
Purple, southern tier: Reed, 53.24-45.18 McCain.
Yellow, Rochester-Ithaca: Slaughter, 65-34 Obama.
Red, east of Rochester to Watertown/Rome: Hanna, 51.78-46.52 McCain.

Teal, the piece de resistance - Syracuse, Utica, Binghamton, and Schenectady: Buerkle and Tonko (!), 60-38 Obama. 

Light blue, north country-Albany: Owens, 61-37 Obama. 
Yellow, leftovers: Gibson, 51.42-46.82 McCain. 
Orange, Hudson valley: Hinchey, 61-38 Obama.
Green, leftovers: Hayworth, 52.42-46.41 McCain. 

[Verily]

Someone talked about a possible compromise that eliminates Buerkle while preserving a "Republican" district that Bill Owens represents. Here's a map like that. Owens' seat is 52% Obama, so R+1 (but that's inflated for the Democrats as Republicans are still very strong locally in the the federally D counties in the far north), while a new Syracuse-Ithaca seat is created (60% Obama). The other seats are all safe. Many are unchanged from my previous map; the rural seat around the Syracuse-Ithaca seat is now up to 54% McCain, while the Utica-Hudson Valley seat is now up to 51% McCain. The Albany-Schenectady-Saratoga Springs seat is 58% Obama. Hinchey's seat is mostly unchanged from my previous map, still 59% Obama (actually slightly better for him as it gained Oneonta and lost some more R areas).

[Torie]

Verily, that deal makes a lot of sense to me. I think I would sign off on that as a Pubbie.

[krazen1211]

Verily, that deal makes a lot of sense to me. I think I would sign off on that as a Pubbie.

That map actually looks much, much nicer than connecting the northern counties on the Canada Border with the Syracuse region.

I think thats about the best the Pubbies can do that looks somewhat clean.