US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135280 times)
Torie
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« Reply #675 on: March 05, 2012, 03:16:36 PM »

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.

You know, the Albany CD does not have to be an ugly duckling. Smiley



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traininthedistance
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« Reply #676 on: March 05, 2012, 03:56:51 PM »

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.

You know, the Albany CD does not have to be an ugly duckling. Smiley


My Albany district is similar:


All of Albany, Schenectady, Rensselaer, optionally Schoharie, and then finish up with the bottom tip of Saratoga.  It's not that hard to make a good district there!
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #677 on: March 05, 2012, 04:08:20 PM »



From way up when in this thread.
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muon2
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« Reply #678 on: March 05, 2012, 04:16:57 PM »

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.

You know, the Albany CD does not have to be an ugly duckling. Smiley


My Albany district is similar:


All of Albany, Schenectady, Rensselaer, optionally Schoharie, and then finish up with the bottom tip of Saratoga.  It's not that hard to make a good district there!

Yes, I did split the Capital Region, but I did so with justification. The two districts covering the region are each nearly whole counties. The four counties including Albany are under population by 3698 and the six counties with Schenectady are over by only 510, and very little population was shifted accordingly. As a bonus both districts have the potential to be competitive in the right year.




CD 19 (Albany) W 77.3% [D+5]
CD 20 (Schenectady) W 90.0% [R+1]
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #679 on: March 05, 2012, 04:26:02 PM »

No Muon, that this is quite unjustifiedly bizarre. Quite frankly everything from 18 to 23 there is Wrong with a capital W.
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Torie
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« Reply #680 on: March 05, 2012, 04:39:54 PM »

No Muon, that this is quite unjustifiedly bizarre. Quite frankly everything from 18 to 23 there is Wrong with a capital W.

Muon2 gives high salience to minimizing county splits (I had one more in the Albany area than Muon2 because I wanted to keep the Albany metro area together). It was interesting that the Minnesota court gave pretty high salience to minimizing county splits too, messing with the prior court drawn lines to cut territory from MN-04 that it had before to kick it out of Dakota County (territory that are inner-burbs tied to the hip to St. Paul), and having it take most of Washington County instead. That was sort of a surprise.
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Nathan
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« Reply #681 on: March 05, 2012, 04:42:39 PM »

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.

My preferred type of district in that area would take in Albany, more of Rennselaer, and as close to all of Schenectady as can be managed. If more population is needed it should go up into Saratoga or down into Greene or Schoharie. muon's isn't great (quite frankly none of muon's upstate map appeals to me except maybe Western New York, though I love his NYC and Long Island), but including Greene makes it a bit less ugly. traininthedistance and Torie have done the best upstate maps so far.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #682 on: March 05, 2012, 05:09:45 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2012, 05:25:54 PM by timothyinMD »

Rationale for my proposal:

1. Buff/Roch are similar cities and combined in one district keep from overpowering the suburban/rural portions of western NYS.
2. Making that a solid D allows all the surrounding seats to be highly competitive.  Same with combining D areas into the Albany seat.
3. Where is it written in stone that St Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton be in the same district?
4. I have no care or regard for incumbents' locations.  One doesn't have to live in a district to run in it
5. Racial stats are irrelevant.  Aside from Grimm and Turner, every other seat in NYC will elect a far left liberal Democrat who will vote the same way no matter what race they are.  To me they aren't whites, blacks, hispanics.  They're Democrats.
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Nathan
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« Reply #683 on: March 05, 2012, 05:26:34 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2012, 08:17:24 PM by Nathan »

Rationale for my proposal:

1. Buff/Roch are similar cities and combined in one district keep from overpowering the suburban/rural portions of western NYS.

Try making this argument to somebody from one of them. They are entirely separate urban areas almost a hundred miles apart.

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In other words, a partisan gerrymander.

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It's its own area called the North Country. It's a community of interest. Making a Sand Lake-to-Canada district while Malone is separated from Plattsburgh and lumped in with Utica makes about as much sense as Dutch Ruppersberger's district even if it doesn't look as horrible.

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traininthedistance's upstate map, which I think is the best I've seen so far, puts Hochul's and Higgins's homes in the same district, as well as Hayworth's and Lowey's and I'm not sure but I think maybe Gibson's and Tonko's.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #684 on: March 05, 2012, 05:37:40 PM »

Chopping Buffalo is just as partisan as it was 10 years ago. This time its merely proposed for the opposite party.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #685 on: March 05, 2012, 05:41:30 PM »

I make no claim that my proposal is "non partisan" or gerrymander free.  It is expressly to help elect as many Republicans as possible.
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Nathan
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« Reply #686 on: March 05, 2012, 06:11:28 PM »

I make no claim that my proposal is "non partisan" or gerrymander free.  It is expressly to help elect as many Republicans as possible.

Oh, okay. In that case and for that purpose it's actually a pretty damn good map.
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cinyc
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« Reply #687 on: March 05, 2012, 06:45:46 PM »

There was a hearing today.  According to the Albany Times-Union, the judge seemed largely interested in to what extent she should take incumbency into account when drawing her map.  The judge's map should be released by next Monday.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #688 on: March 05, 2012, 07:47:32 PM »

Buffalo and Rochester are very different cities with different economies and politics. That would be like linking Raleigh-Durham and Winston-Salem, or saying Baltimore and Washington D.C. are basically the same. Rochester is built on knowledge industries and engineering while Buffalo is rust belt.
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cinyc
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« Reply #689 on: March 05, 2012, 08:08:36 PM »

Buffalo and Rochester are very different cities with different economies and politics. That would be like linking Raleigh-Durham and Winston-Salem, or saying Baltimore and Washington D.C. are basically the same. Rochester is built on knowledge industries and engineering while Buffalo is rust belt.

Parts of Buffalo and Rochester are currently in the same congressional district.  Legislators thought them sufficiently similar to include in the same district in 2002.  If the judge goes with a least-change map, they might still be linked in the same district, ugliness notwithstanding.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #690 on: March 05, 2012, 08:40:08 PM »

Both the earmuffs and Higgin's distict are ridiculous when you can draw districts entirely within Monroe and Erie counties. I hope they don't go with a least change map. The loss of two seats should preclude that entirely. Roll Eyes
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #691 on: March 05, 2012, 08:42:53 PM »

Rationale for my proposal:

1. Buff/Roch are similar cities and combined in one district keep from overpowering the suburban/rural portions of western NYS.
2. Making that a solid D allows all the surrounding seats to be highly competitive.  Same with combining D areas into the Albany seat.
3. Where is it written in stone that St Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton be in the same district?
4. I have no care or regard for incumbents' locations.  One doesn't have to live in a district to run in it
5. Racial stats are irrelevant.  Aside from Grimm and Turner, every other seat in NYC will elect a far left liberal Democrat who will vote the same way no matter what race they are.  To me they aren't whites, blacks, hispanics.  They're Democrats.

The rules do care about that, though. Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #692 on: March 05, 2012, 08:54:07 PM »

No Muon, that this is quite unjustifiedly bizarre. Quite frankly everything from 18 to 23 there is Wrong with a capital W.

Muon2 gives high salience to minimizing county splits (I had one more in the Albany area than Muon2 because I wanted to keep the Albany metro area together). It was interesting that the Minnesota court gave pretty high salience to minimizing county splits too, messing with the prior court drawn lines to cut territory from MN-04 that it had before to kick it out of Dakota County (territory that are inner-burbs tied to the hip to St. Paul), and having it take most of Washington County instead. That was sort of a surprise.

I was raised in MN. Perhaps that's where I get that predilection. Wink Truthfully it shows up in many other states as a priority as well.
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Torie
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« Reply #693 on: March 05, 2012, 08:58:14 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2012, 09:09:05 PM by Torie »

The application of the least change rules, where the number of CD's is changed, may be a case of first impression. And I am not sure if for federal courts, it is mandatory or not in any event. And does it matter whether the old map was a bipartisan one (albeit a bipartisan gerrymander), which it was in NY, or a one party partisan gerrymander, in which event, that one party gerrymander would go on forever unless the other party captured the power trifecta, or it got into state court. Just how things end up in federal or state court is another mystery.
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Torie
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« Reply #694 on: March 05, 2012, 09:05:11 PM »

No Muon, that this is quite unjustifiedly bizarre. Quite frankly everything from 18 to 23 there is Wrong with a capital W.

Muon2 gives high salience to minimizing county splits (I had one more in the Albany area than Muon2 because I wanted to keep the Albany metro area together). It was interesting that the Minnesota court gave pretty high salience to minimizing county splits too, messing with the prior court drawn lines to cut territory from MN-04 that it had before to kick it out of Dakota County (territory that are inner-burbs tied to the hip to St. Paul), and having it take most of Washington County instead. That was sort of a surprise.

I was raised in MN. Perhaps that's where I get that predilection. Wink Truthfully it shows up in many other states as a priority as well.

It most certainly does!  Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #695 on: March 05, 2012, 09:37:59 PM »

The application of the least change rules, where the number of CD's is changed, may be a case of first impression. And I am not sure if for federal courts, it is mandatory or not in any event. And does it matter whether the old map was a bipartisan one (albeit a bipartisan gerrymander), which it was in NY, or a one party partisan gerrymander, in which event, that one party gerrymander would go on forever unless the other party captured the power trifecta, or it got into state court. Just how things end up in federal or state court is another mystery.

In the case of the MN state courts in 2002 there was little regard for the traditional 4-corners plan, and they switched to a 5 and 3 plan.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #696 on: March 05, 2012, 09:39:47 PM »

Buffalo and Rochester are very different cities with different economies and politics. That would be like linking Raleigh-Durham and Winston-Salem, or saying Baltimore and Washington D.C. are basically the same. Rochester is built on knowledge industries and engineering while Buffalo is rust belt.

Parts of Buffalo and Rochester are currently in the same congressional district.   If the judge goes with a least-change map, they might still be linked in the same district, ugliness notwithstanding.

Sorry, I should have quoted the line I was responding too which said that Buffalo and Rochester were pretty much the same. I'm not disputing that they're in the same district now blah blah least change.

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That doesn't follow. Legislators accepted a map drawn that was as a partisan compromise that froze Republican incumbent advantages upstate, and this was a gerrymander included to make that happen. It does not follow that Rochester and Buffalo are similar.
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cinyc
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« Reply #697 on: March 05, 2012, 09:52:59 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2012, 09:56:07 PM by cinyc »

The application of the least change rules, where the number of CD's is changed, may be a case of first impression. And I am not sure if for federal courts, it is mandatory or not in any event. And does it matter whether the old map was a bipartisan one (albeit a bipartisan gerrymander), which it was in NY, or a one party partisan gerrymander, in which event, that one party gerrymander would go on forever unless the other party captured the power trifecta, or it got into state court. Just how things end up in federal or state court is another mystery.

Well, the main argument that the parties are having is over whether the magistrate judge need to take incumbency into account, with the political parties arguing she must because the legislature usually has done so and Common Cause and some intervenors arguing that she need not because the NYS Constitution and law does not include incumbency protection as a factor and the legislature hasn't passed a map.  A second argument made by Plaintiff-Intervenors is that the map should be a least-change one, meaning the Common Cause map should be thrown out.

FWIW, the expert university professor special master here was the special master in the Connecticut Supreme Court's recent redistricting case, which ultimately resulted in a least-change map.  Here, he was proposed by the Democrats and clerked for a Democrat appointed federal judge.   The magistrate is a Clinton appointee.

Today, the judge ordered LATFOR to send a shapefile with the current CDs along with a file showing racial density in those districts for all 4 groups.
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« Reply #698 on: March 06, 2012, 02:37:10 AM »

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #699 on: March 06, 2012, 07:27:11 AM »

Are there any hipsters in Queens? Bands from there tend to be either pop punk, "tough guy" hardcore, or metalcore.

LIC and Astoria have some.
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