US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135260 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #725 on: March 06, 2012, 02:19:06 PM »

I note he went with exactly what I at first thought inevitable in Brooklyn, before I noticed how unhispanic Velazquez' district was and that it was trending White and how ugly a map it forced to preserve it (the Nadler Hipster Earmuff as well as the Jewish Slashup).
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Miles
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« Reply #726 on: March 06, 2012, 02:19:17 PM »

Owens may be saved again.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #727 on: March 06, 2012, 02:30:12 PM »

I note he went with exactly what I at first thought inevitable in Brooklyn, before I noticed how unhispanic Velazquez' district was and that it was trending White and how ugly a map it forced to preserve it (the Nadler Hipster Earmuff as well as the Jewish Slashup).
You got it backwards the Jewish slashup is why Velazquez's district goes in to southern Brooklyn.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #728 on: March 06, 2012, 02:33:08 PM »

Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #729 on: March 06, 2012, 02:38:01 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #730 on: March 06, 2012, 02:38:28 PM »

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)
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NY Jew
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« Reply #731 on: March 06, 2012, 02:46:32 PM »

Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.
except the district was slashed up 20 years ago to destroy the jewish vote.  Velazquez wasn't elected till the election after that.
  The reason that happened was because the jewish community voted against Solarz (he won the overall election) and all of a sudden in the next redistricting the seat was gone.

look at this map and you'll see what it used to look like
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_03_02_11_11_09_04.png
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Torie
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« Reply #732 on: March 06, 2012, 02:48:22 PM »

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #733 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:03 PM »

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ". Smiley
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Torie
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« Reply #734 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:20 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #735 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:34 PM »

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #736 on: March 06, 2012, 03:04:55 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

The Carl Kruger seat.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #737 on: March 06, 2012, 03:06:49 PM »

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)
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Torie
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« Reply #738 on: March 06, 2012, 03:07:25 PM »

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ". Smiley

We will see if the Pubs target McCarthy I guess. I think she is baggable with the right well financed candidate myself. She's basically a nebbish.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #739 on: March 06, 2012, 03:07:46 PM »

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley

Nan Hayworth doesn't look safe to me either.  Favored, probably, but by no means safe.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #740 on: March 06, 2012, 03:09:54 PM »

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)



The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #741 on: March 06, 2012, 03:15:41 PM »

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side. Smiley
McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ". Smiley

We will see if the Pubs target McCarthy I guess. I think she is baggable with the right well financed candidate myself. She's basically a nebbish.
In a district of nebbishes.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #742 on: March 06, 2012, 03:19:40 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.
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Torie
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« Reply #743 on: March 06, 2012, 03:28:34 PM »

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.


Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.

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Torie
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« Reply #744 on: March 06, 2012, 03:32:59 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
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Torie
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« Reply #745 on: March 06, 2012, 03:42:41 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 03:44:12 PM by Torie »

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  
If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)



The Democrats have about 15 or so long term influential incumbents to yell at Sheldon Silver to cut a deal.

The GOP has 1. An important one of course.

I don't see any possible way this map stands.

The Pubs had better demand getting Turner back in exchange for propping up the Long Island Dems, and other assorted and sundry incumbents (except for Hochul) or I will join NYJew in howling myself. Tongue

If I were a Pub in the NY legislature, I would refuse to abandon this map absent something pretty succulent. I quite like this map, the Turner issue aside.
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NY Jew
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« Reply #746 on: March 06, 2012, 03:43:49 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #747 on: March 06, 2012, 03:45:20 PM »

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  As one could also figure out, all four seats are marginal should they open, with McCarthy's being the least (but still a problem).

Grimm gets slightly safer I believe.  I have to look with a careful eye at upstate, but Gibson and Hayworth get a point or two more Dem for absorbing Hinchey.  Gibson gets the worst of the two.  Hanna gets a point more GOP.  I think Buerkle is dead meat, as the center of the CD switches from Rochester to Syracuse.  Reed gets slightly more Dem, but probably not enough to dislodge him absent a wave.  Hochul is going to run far away from that CD, unless she likes living life dangerously.

All in all, should be -1, -1, but Gibson, Buerkle and Hochul are the real question marks.


Buerkle's CD, old NY-25, now NY-24, didn't change much, either in geography (except to expand), or in partisan coloration.



Um, that picture is really kind of misleading, as it cuts off a nearly 100,000-person strong section of the old NY-25 in Monroe County.  The district's center may not have been near Rochester, but it definitely contained more Rochester suburbs than it does now.

Plugging in DRA, it appears the part Buerkle lost is about 97,000 people who voted for Obama 51-48, whereas she gains 142K voters who were slightly more Dem, 54-44 Obama.  So it moves a point to the left, probably.
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Torie
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« Reply #748 on: March 06, 2012, 03:46:28 PM »

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?
Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.


Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?
around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)

It means what do the odds makers think as to the likelihood of one guy or the other winning. If you handicap a race, that means you are placing odds on it, just like betting on the horses at the race track.

It sounds like a pretty Pub friendly district. Why was a Dem representing it?
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NY Jew
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« Reply #749 on: March 06, 2012, 03:47:15 PM »

Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.
some more info on how the jewish community was gerrymandered because of that seat.

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/09/nyregion/solarz-will-run-in-district-tailored-as-a-hispanic-seat.html

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