US House Redistricting: New York
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NY Jew
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« Reply #800 on: March 08, 2012, 08:49:40 AM »

Please, people. 50% on DRA is not 50%. That's 53%. Get.that.into.your.heads.

What you probably cannot do is get to actual 50% without crossing into Nassau while also uniting Rockaway, drawing a clear northern line rather than cherrypicking precincts down to the very last Black resident, and giving Woodhaven to Velazquez.

As for Inwood, it was probably done because he felt it a better fit or something. And/or enabled cleaner lines for Israel in Queens and for the McCarthy/Israel line.
And the Jewish part of Far Rockway is an infinite times better fit in the LI district then Inwood is in the Black district which goes back to my original question.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #801 on: March 08, 2012, 03:47:44 PM »

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views.

most democrats, including most blue dogs, support abortion rights. What's the big deal?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #802 on: March 08, 2012, 03:52:00 PM »

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views.

most democrats, including most blue dogs, support abortion rights. What's the big deal?

Statements like this.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/rep-louise-slaughter-gop-freshmen-came-washington-kill-women

And legislation like this.

http://www.louise.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2502&Itemid=100065
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Torie
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« Reply #803 on: March 08, 2012, 03:57:31 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2012, 03:59:05 PM by Torie »

Well there is chatter that a Constitutional deal is in the works, that will effectively make it impossible for there to be a Dem gerrymander in NY ever. If one party controls both houses, it takes a two thirds majority to pass a map. Otherwise it goes to a commission. If power is split, then it takes just a simple majority, and bi-partisan gerrymanders can go on and on - forever and ever, which is just the way NY politicians like it. They want to represent sinecure like seats, not competitive ones. So the specter of the GOP losing the Senate at the wrong time, and being shut out of the state the way the Pubs are in Mass, has had a stake put in its heart. That Pub nightmare will no longer interfere with their sleeping restfully at night.

The Dems are acting very curiously all in all, to say the least. If I were a Dem in NY, I would be furious.  How can they stand to be represented by this passel of wall-to-wall hacks?  
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ag
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« Reply #804 on: March 08, 2012, 04:03:23 PM »

This would be easy to circumvent. If Dems ever come to power in the NYS Senate, a group of them is delegated to form a Working Families faction, meaning that no party technically has a majority. At that point, a map is passed w/ a simple majority, after which the 2/3 Dem majority in both chambers is hardwired into the system. What could be simpler?
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« Reply #805 on: March 08, 2012, 10:33:00 PM »

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

Yeah I don't get it. She's an uninteresting backbencher too.

But hey if Republican donors want to sink about a million against her instead of to vulnerable Republicans or Mitt Romney's SuperPACs, go ahead.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #806 on: March 09, 2012, 12:24:57 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2012, 08:09:18 AM by muon2 »

What I hoped to find: Solid information about the new New York map and what to expect this fall

A separate thread for discussion on Jewish voting in NY has been created.
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Torie
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« Reply #807 on: March 09, 2012, 07:36:41 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2012, 07:38:57 PM by Torie »

Now Nancy Pelosi chimes in, whining for a bi-partisan gerrymander. She is concerned about Hochul of course, but also guess who - Louise Slaughter!  Bring back the ear muffs!  She is not too happy about Lowey's CD either. She seems sexist by worrying just about the females, rather than the guys on Long Island, but I digress.

The Pubs should make the Dems pay a high price to get what they want. We shall see just how good the Pubs are as negotiators. When the Dems are doing this in public, you know they seem willing to open their wallets. The Pubs should empty them - or tell the Dems to keep their money. I guess we will find out soon just how hackish the Pubs in NY are.

My suggestion is to let NYJew draw the Pub CD in Brooklyn and Queens. That way everybody will be happy.  Tongue
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edtorres04
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« Reply #808 on: March 10, 2012, 08:32:17 AM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter. 
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Torie
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« Reply #809 on: March 10, 2012, 10:43:53 AM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #810 on: March 10, 2012, 10:47:09 AM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter? Smiley
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Torie
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« Reply #811 on: March 10, 2012, 10:59:32 AM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter? Smiley

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #812 on: March 10, 2012, 04:05:10 PM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter? Smiley

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.
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Torie
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« Reply #813 on: March 10, 2012, 05:14:57 PM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter? Smiley

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

That dog won't hunt at all.  It isn't Christmas, with Santa giving presents just to Dems. So if that is the Dem position (which is such a non starter that I doubt that it is if they are serious about dealing), we just go with the court map with which the Pubs are quite happy about on balance, and the Dems less happy.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #814 on: March 10, 2012, 06:57:44 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2012, 07:01:38 PM by brittain33 »

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #815 on: March 10, 2012, 07:06:22 PM »

Well there is chatter that a Constitutional deal is in the works, that will effectively make it impossible for there to be a Dem gerrymander in NY ever. If one party controls both houses, it takes a two thirds majority to pass a map. Otherwise it goes to a commission. If power is split, then it takes just a simple majority, and bi-partisan gerrymanders can go on and on - forever and ever, which is just the way NY politicians like it. They want to represent sinecure like seats, not competitive ones. So the specter of the GOP losing the Senate at the wrong time, and being shut out of the state the way the Pubs are in Mass, has had a stake put in its heart. That Pub nightmare will no longer interfere with their sleeping restfully at night.

The Dems are acting very curiously all in all, to say the least. If I were a Dem in NY, I would be furious.  How can they stand to be represented by this passel of wall-to-wall hacks?  


Oh yes indeed, regardless of the situation, the worst possible result is a plan that actually benefits the people the most, instead of the honerable and distinguished gentlemen of the chamber in Albany. They are after all far more important and should take priority. Fairness only aids the little people, which are as stated, little. As result their consider shall be proportional to their relevance.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #816 on: March 10, 2012, 07:25:39 PM »

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter? Smiley

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

That dog won't hunt at all.  It isn't Christmas, with Santa giving presents just to Dems. So if that is the Dem position (which is such a non starter that I doubt that it is if they are serious about dealing), we just go with the court map with which the Pubs are quite happy about on balance, and the Dems less happy.

Well in that case I will just take the court map, and insist that the court draws the State Senate map, too.  With *equal population*, none of this systematic 10-percent deviance, which I'm sure the Republicans will be just thrilled about.

Then, if I'm feeling like playing hardball, raise the possibility of mid-decade redistricting after the inevitable happens.
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Torie
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« Reply #817 on: March 10, 2012, 07:27:52 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2012, 07:34:47 PM by Torie »

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.

I have a bias for competitive seats I admit. Other than Turner, I like the map because Buerkle faired unexpectedly well, and I like the way Long Island turned out. I really don't think King is in danger, and I think Israel and McCarthy might be. I don't think any of the other Pubs are in real danger, except in a bad election year, and Hochul is out.  I think Slaughter might be vulnerable as well, but the Pubs shouldn't spend too much money on it, because to hold the seat will be a chore absent some quite talented Pub representing it, and hey, I don't want to move to Rochester!  Tongue

Anyway, if you two guys are representing the Dems, and I the Pubs, the negotiation would be very short, before we just wrap it up, and shake hands, and go have a beer. The court map will be the map.

As to the interim post above, if the Dems were really interested in the court drawing the legislative seats (no the court won't just draw the Senate seats, while the Pubs vote for the assembly Dem gerrymander), then the parties would not have already essentially cut a deal on that, with both now negotiating against Cuomo. The parties seem to view the Congressional seats, and legislative seats, as on two separate tracks. The Dems in short, are not holding the Senate map up as hostage for getting something they like better in a Congressional map. I understand how in the abstract that is a very good plan, but the problem is that it inconveniences too many Dem incumbents short term, and we can't have that.

As I said, NY politicians of both parties tend to be self interested hacks, more than is normal for the political species.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #818 on: March 10, 2012, 09:11:23 PM »

I have a bias for competitive seats I admit. Other than Turner, I like the map because Buerkle faired unexpectedly well, and I like the way Long Island turned out. I really don't think King is in danger, and I think Israel and McCarthy might be. I don't think any of the other Pubs are in real danger, except in a bad election year, and Hochul is out.  I think Slaughter might be vulnerable as well, but the Pubs shouldn't spend too much money on it, because to hold the seat will be a chore absent some quite talented Pub representing it, and hey, I don't want to move to Rochester!  Tongue

Anyway, if you two guys are representing the Dems, and I the Pubs, the negotiation would be very short, before we just wrap it up, and shake hands, and go have a beer. The court map will be the map.

As to the interim post above, if the Dems were really interested in the court drawing the legislative seats (no the court won't just draw the Senate seats, while the Pubs vote for the assembly Dem gerrymander), then the parties would not have already essentially cut a deal on that, with both now negotiating against Cuomo. The parties seem to view the Congressional seats, and legislative seats, as on two separate tracks. The Dems in short, are not holding the Senate map up as hostage for getting something they like better in a Congressional map. I understand how in the abstract that is a very good plan, but the problem is that it inconveniences too many Dem incumbents short term, and we can't have that.

As I said, NY politicians of both parties tend to be self interested hacks, more than is normal for the political species.

Of course the Assembly map would have to be court-drawn as well, NY politicians being self-interested hacks means it probably won't happen even if it's the right thing to do.

The court map is full of competitive seats, and that's definitely why the both of us are broadly okay with it.  It was more favorable to the Republicans than I'd prefer, sure, but the only really egregious thing is the placement of Ithaca.  (I'd prefer Niagara Falls in Hochul's district, even if it's a lost cause anyway, and more of Saratoga in Owens, but those are small potatoes).  I also suspect you're a bit too optimistic about McCarthy (she's not in any real danger) and Gibson (he is).
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Torie
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« Reply #819 on: March 10, 2012, 09:18:04 PM »

Look at it this way - a reasonably competent incumbent, particularly in NY, garners you about a 3% to 5% tailwind over the partisan PVI baseline. Israel is reasonably competent, but too liberal, and in particular too high profile out front partisan,  for his new CD. McCarthy I don't consider reasonably competent. Is Gibson reasonably competent? And Slaughter isn't reasonably competent at all.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #820 on: March 10, 2012, 10:17:29 PM »

Look at it this way - a reasonably competent incumbent, particularly in NY, garners you about a 3% to 5% tailwind over the partisan PVI baseline. Israel is reasonably competent, but too liberal, and in particular too high profile out front partisan,  for his new CD. McCarthy I don't consider reasonably competent. Is Gibson reasonably competent? And Slaughter isn't reasonably competent at all.

Gibson was basically a wave wash in who has almost no crossover appeal.  He would very likely lose in the new district. 
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Smash255
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« Reply #821 on: March 10, 2012, 10:19:34 PM »

Look at it this way - a reasonably competent incumbent, particularly in NY, garners you about a 3% to 5% tailwind over the partisan PVI baseline. Israel is reasonably competent, but too liberal, and in particular too high profile out front partisan,  for his new CD. McCarthy I don't consider reasonably competent. Is Gibson reasonably competent? And Slaughter isn't reasonably competent at all.


I don't see Israel or McCarthy in much danger under the new lines.  The GOP has no bench whatsoever in either district.  The demographics in McCarthy's district are only going to become even more favorable for her as western Nassau has become much more diverse and will continue to do so.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #822 on: March 10, 2012, 10:31:11 PM »

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.

The GOP held the Syracuse district for a long time before Maffei. Kind of like Turner's district in that regard.

In any case, the GOP got relatively hosed in 2002, losing 2 upstate seats (technically, Lafalce was eliminated but they got Jack Quinn's district 2 years later. This time around the Democrats are effectively losing 2 seats.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #823 on: March 11, 2012, 09:36:37 AM »

Gibson was basically a wave wash in who has almost no crossover appeal.  He would very likely lose in the new district.  

Really? My sense has always been that he's relatively moderate. I think that he's vulnerable, but he has an impressive background. The Democrats would need a strong candidate to beat him, even in the proposed district.


I really wonder how much opportunity he's had to carve out a defined persona. He was elected in 2010 because it was a great Republican year and if he's reelected in 2012 it will be because it's not a great Dem year, IMO.

Is his voting record markedly different from that of, say, Spencer Bachus or John Fleming on anything significant?
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« Reply #824 on: March 11, 2012, 08:20:22 PM »

Is his voting record markedly different from that of, say, Spencer Bachus or John Fleming on anything significant?

He's a member of the Main Street Partnership... I also vaguely remember he and Rep. Hanna not siding with most Republicans on a couple of votes, though I can't recall which. He's definitely not a Buerkle. (And his MoV in 2010 was nearly 10%.)

correct, Gibson is a good fit for this district. Remember, this is a district who used to elect wingnut Gerald B.H. Solomon every two years.
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