US House Redistricting: New York
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  US House Redistricting: New York
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New York  (Read 135283 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #850 on: March 12, 2012, 04:43:25 PM »

Not quite, that's a 55% Obama district.
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Torie
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« Reply #851 on: March 12, 2012, 04:43:58 PM »


Yes, I just deleted that line after doubling checking myself. Smiley 
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Bacon King
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« Reply #852 on: March 12, 2012, 05:01:42 PM »

Here is the complete matrix chart which illustrates why one party is probably considerably happier with the court map than the other party. In a Pub tsunami, the delegation would be 15 (R) - 12 (D). Of course, with the reverse, it would be 1 (R) - 26 (D).  Notice how in general things get more competitive, with the more extreme partisan colors moving towards something less so in many instances (the Buffalo seat being the spectacular exception as the earmuffs were undone). That is what happens when you unravel a prior bi-partisan gerrymander. New York should be a fun place for the next decade. Smiley

So over half of the state's Congressional districts can be fairly described as competitive, and the district boundaries are actually pretty reasonable, too?

Whoever this special master was, he's my hero. They should let him draw the maps everywhere forever.
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muon2
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« Reply #853 on: March 12, 2012, 06:59:28 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2012, 09:56:13 PM by muon2 »

Here is the complete matrix chart which illustrates why one party is probably considerably happier with the court map than the other party. In a Pub tsunami, the delegation would be 15 (R) - 12 (D). Of course, with the reverse, it would be 1 (R) - 26 (D).  Notice how in general things get more competitive, with the more extreme partisan colors moving towards something less so in many instances (the Buffalo seat being the spectacular exception as the earmuffs were undone). That is what happens when you unravel a prior bi-partisan gerrymander. New York should be a fun place for the next decade. Smiley



Out of curiosity, what is your source of McCain/Obama numbers? I've drawn up the entire map on DRA and differ by 0.1% here and there.

Here's your corrected table:
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Torie
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« Reply #854 on: March 12, 2012, 07:19:31 PM »

Muon2, I got the numbers from Daily Kos (oh whatever that left wing blog is called), which were linked above somewhere.  Tongue

If you have mapped the state, Mike, and have different ones, I will use those. Knowing you, I trust you more than Daily Kos! The prior CD figures I got from Barone's Almanac, and used raw numbers, so they should be precisely accurate.
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« Reply #855 on: March 12, 2012, 07:24:27 PM »

Some NY Republicans are calling on Bob Turner to challenge Gillibrand if he isn't left with a winnable district: http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/03/brooklyn-gop-chair-pushes-turner-for-congress/

Good luck.
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muon2
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« Reply #856 on: March 12, 2012, 07:47:40 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2012, 04:09:38 PM by muon2 »

Muon2, I got the numbers from Daily Kos (oh whatever that left wing blog is called), which were linked above somewhere.  Tongue

If you have mapped the state, Mike, and have different ones, I will use those. Knowing you, I trust you more than Daily Kos! The prior CD figures I got from Barone's Almanac, and used raw numbers, so they should be precisely accurate.

They may have a block-level program, but I suspect not. My CDs all are within 1000 of the ideal pop Smiley. Here's my table (updated to the recommended plan of 3-12):

CD 1: O 51.4, M 47.6
CD 2: O 51.2, M 47.9
CD 3: O 53.5, M 45.7
CD 4: O 55.4, M 43.9
CD 5: O 86.2, M 13.4
CD 6: O 63.2, M 36.0
CD 7: O 84.3, M 15.0
CD 8: O 86.0, M 13.7
CD 9: O 84.3, M 15.2
CD 10: O 75.6, M 23.4
CD 11: O 48.3, M 50.9
CD 12: O 80.2, M 18.9
CD 13: O 93.3, M 6.2
CD 14: O 76.1, M 23.2
CD 15: O 94.6, M 5.2
CD 16: O 73.0, M 26.4
CD 17: O 58.0, M 41.2
CD 18: O 52.1, M 46.8
CD 19: O 53.0, M 45.3
CD 20: O 58.3, M 39.8
CD 21: O 51.6, M 46.7
CD 22: O 49.1, M 49.1 (McCain by 92 votes Cool )
CD 23: O 49.6, M 48.8
CD 24: O 56.2, M 42.0
CD 25: O 58.8, M 39.9
CD 26: O 63.5, M 35.0
CD 27: O 44.5, M 53.9
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jfern
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« Reply #857 on: March 12, 2012, 09:31:48 PM »

The hacks were busy this weekend, and apparently have reached agreement on legislative lines, and won't reach an agreement on Congressional lines, as was anticipated. So it looks like the court map will be the map. I suspect the appellate panel will make no changes at all to the lines. Why would they?

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Ugh, if the Democrats are going to implicitly agree to this crappy Congressional map, they should force someone other than the Republicans in the State Senate to draw the State Senate districts. So there'd probably be some Democrats in the state Assembly who lose re-election with a map they didn't draw. Small price to pay.
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Torie
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« Reply #858 on: March 12, 2012, 09:50:00 PM »
« Edited: March 12, 2012, 09:54:26 PM by Torie »

OK, Muon2, I revised the matrix above to match your numbers. You might delete the errant matrix from your post least it cause confusion. Smiley  

We both made errors with NY-27.  I mis-entered the Obama percentage (the McCain percentage was OK), and you used the average party numbers rather than the Obama-McCain numbers. I know because I drew NY-26 and NY-27 to find out. Tongue

Regarding the tenths thing, do you know if the DRA rounds the tenths, or just drops the 4th digit? If it just drops it, that might explain a lot of the tenths action vis a vis the Kos percentages. Unless of course even if the DRA does drop the fourth digit, you cranked the raw numbers to find out how to round properly. Smiley
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muon2
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« Reply #859 on: March 12, 2012, 10:03:07 PM »

OK, Muon2, I revised the matrix above to match your numbers. You might delete the errant matrix from your post least it cause confusion. Smiley  

We both made errors with NY-27.  I mis-entered the Obama percentage (the McCain percentage was OK), and you used the average party numbers rather than the Obama-McCain numbers. I know because I drew NY-26 and NY-27 to find out. Tongue

Regarding the tenths thing, do you know if the DRA rounds the tenths, or just drops the 4th digit? If it just drops it, that might explain a lot of the tenths action vis a vis the Kos percentages. Unless of course even if the DRA does drop the fourth digit, you cranked the raw numbers to find out how to round properly. Smiley

Thanks, I've made the correction. I also note that you don't show the swap of numbers for NY-2 and NY-3 that I would have guessed given the number of VTDs from the old districts in each. Obviously the PVIs match better the way you have it.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #860 on: March 13, 2012, 04:31:43 AM »

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote
Uh... what?
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Torie
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« Reply #861 on: March 13, 2012, 09:25:57 AM »

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote
Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you. Smiley
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Brittain33
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« Reply #862 on: March 13, 2012, 10:57:09 AM »

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote
Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you. Smiley

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.
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« Reply #863 on: March 13, 2012, 11:04:05 AM »

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote
Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you. Smiley

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.
right now Orthodox Jews are one of the least politically involved groups in the country (we have record low registration rates)
 (mostly do to systematic anti semtic redistricting for the past 40 years so on a local level our vote is mostly nullified.)
If we ever got fully involved in politics more dems will drop
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Torie
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« Reply #864 on: March 13, 2012, 11:06:58 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2012, 11:09:35 AM by Torie »

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote
Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you. Smiley

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.

Yes, Lowey is certainly no nebbish, and yes, you ask the right question as to whether or not the orthodox (along with perhaps some more moderate/secular but not liberal Jews angry about Obama's mid east policies), almost in toto abandoned Obama in 2008, so whatever is left, if anything, would be merely a swing, rather than a trend.  I don't pretend to know really. By the way, "nebbish" was O'Reilly's word of the day last week, so that word may start getting more play in the gentile community. Life is beautiful.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #865 on: March 13, 2012, 11:08:54 AM »

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.
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Torie
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« Reply #866 on: March 13, 2012, 11:10:52 AM »

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.


I guess it would be useful to take a tour de horizon of the applicable precincts wouldn't it? You might be right. Rockland seems to be polarization city.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #867 on: March 13, 2012, 11:18:45 AM »

Bob Turner tosses in for NY Senate...hope he has fun.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #868 on: March 13, 2012, 11:27:53 AM »

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.


I guess it would be useful to take a tour de horizon of the applicable precincts wouldn't it? You might be right. Rockland seems to be polarization city.
Doesn't help that the areas just east of the Orthodox are minority-heavy, of course. It's like a mini piece of transplanted Brooklyn!

There might be more, sort of orthodox but not ultra-observant (you know, not wearing the clothes, not living in uniform enclaves) Jews elsewhere in the county that might vote Democratic and be swingable, I don't know. It's possible.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #869 on: March 13, 2012, 11:28:58 AM »

Bob Turner tosses in for NY Senate...hope he has fun.
Translate: The map stands.
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Torie
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« Reply #870 on: March 13, 2012, 11:40:57 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2012, 12:24:16 PM by Torie »

In other news, Judge Mann just tweaked her map. The changes in Brooklyn are between two minority CD's, so that has no partisan meaning, and if the Finger Lakes changes move anything by even a tenth of a point, color me surprised. So now we wait until Thursday to see what the Appellate Court does - which will probably be nothing.

And indeed, no partisan change to NY-25, NY-27 and NY-23. The change to NY-25, expanding it by a tad (maybe a couple of hundred residents), into a precinct which was already split (up there near Orleans County along the lake - it took me a long time to find that tiny jut), may be a population equalizer. The other change I assume was to avoid a split of Livingston County, and keep just Ontario County split, so a bit of territory was excised in Livingston from NY-23, and NY-23 picked up about 1,500 more folks in Ontario from NY-27 instead. Judge Mann apparently is about as fond of county splits as Muon2.  Tongue
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« Reply #871 on: March 13, 2012, 12:00:12 PM »

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

my point wasn't based on % but turn out even if the Orthodox vote goes slightly towards the democrats % wise if the jewish vote increases it's turn out that can have major effects.
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muon2
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« Reply #872 on: March 13, 2012, 04:14:41 PM »

In other news, Judge Mann just tweaked her map. The changes in Brooklyn are between two minority CD's, so that has no partisan meaning, and if the Finger Lakes changes move anything by even a tenth of a point, color me surprised. So now we wait until Thursday to see what the Appellate Court does - which will probably be nothing.

And indeed, no partisan change to NY-25, NY-27 and NY-23. The change to NY-25, expanding it by a tad (maybe a couple of hundred residents), into a precinct which was already split (up there near Orleans County along the lake - it took me a long time to find that tiny jut), may be a population equalizer. The other change I assume was to avoid a split of Livingston County, and keep just Ontario County split, so a bit of territory was excised in Livingston from NY-23, and NY-23 picked up about 1,500 more folks in Ontario from NY-27 instead. Judge Mann apparently is about as fond of county splits as Muon2.  Tongue

Indeed, there was no change to the upstate percentages when I adjusted my map. NY-8 and NY-9 roughly swapped their percentages due to the differences between Ft Greene (now in Cool and Sheepshead Bay (now in 9). My post on the previous page is now updated as well.
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danny
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« Reply #873 on: March 13, 2012, 05:20:17 PM »

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

my point wasn't based on % but turn out even if the Orthodox vote goes slightly towards the democrats % wise if the jewish vote increases it's turn out that can have major effects.
Do you have a source or numbers regarding turnout? Total number of voters is always going to look low compared to the total population because of the large under 18 population.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #874 on: March 13, 2012, 08:18:03 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2012, 08:20:59 PM by Atari Democrat »

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now.

Lowey's lifetime ADA rating is like 94. It's very difficult to maintain a rating that high for more than 20 years. Of the congressman who have served a similar amount of years, only Barney Frank, Ed Markey and George Miller have higher lifetime ADA scores than her. A Ben Gilman esque Republican could possibly defeat her.
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