US House Redistricting: New York

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Life is beautiful.

Fail.

[Torie]

Life is beautiful.

Fail.

You took that out of context. Naughty!

[krazen1211]

Democratic bickering seems to be preventing a deal.

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/politics_now/2012/03/silver-dismisses-idea-of-congressional-redistricting-deal.html

Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos late this afternoon said he wants to negotiate a congressional deal with Silver, but that the Assembly leader has “internal political problems.’’ He said those problems involve a battle between three Democratic county chairman – the leaders of the party organizations in Manhattan, Queens and the Bronx.



Yep. At a guess Skelos is fairly content with the Upstate and Long Island lines, while Silver can't figure out how do deal with Rangel, the Latinos, and everyone else bickering.

[they don't love you like i love you]

There might be more, sort of orthodox but not ultra-observant (you know, not wearing the clothes, not living in uniform enclaves) Jews elsewhere in the county that might vote Democratic and be swingable, I don't know. It's possible.

Isn't that basically what Joe Lieberman is?

[minionofmidas]

I dunno, I figure Joe may have voted for McCain, but otherwise he fits the description.

[timothyinMD]

For you race-obsessed Democrats:



2 majority black districts and 2 Republican districts in Brooklyn.

[krazen1211]

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2012/03/breaking-news-deals-near-on-everything-updatedx3

BREAKING NEWS: Deals Near On Everything

[cinyc]

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2012/03/breaking-news-deals-near-on-everything-updatedx3

BREAKING NEWS: Deals Near On Everything

While it's not entirely clear from the article, "everything" probably only includes the state Senate and Assembly redistricting, not the US House map.  Democrats are supposedly fighting too much among themselves to compromise on the House map.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Why compromise on the Senate map? Better to just bottle it up and get a court-drawn map that'll no doubt end several GOP incumbents (Obviously the Democrats will probably take it anyway even with the current gerrymandered monstrosity in the next decent Dem year but better to secure that).

BTW I actually have worked on what a court-drawn Senate map might look like, should upload it.

[Torie]

Why compromise on the Senate map? Better to just bottle it up and get a court-drawn map that'll no doubt end several GOP incumbents (Obviously the Democrats will probably take it anyway even with the current gerrymandered monstrosity in the next decent Dem year but better to secure that).

BTW I actually have worked on what a court-drawn Senate map might look like, should upload it.

Because Assembly Dems don't want to be inconvenienced by a concomitant court drawn Assembly map, even if it leaves the Dems with a secure majority in the Assembly. It has nothing to do with larger Dem objectives to gain more Congressional seats down the road silly. This is New York! It doesn't work that way. Plus the partisan divide when you cut through the BS is more muted in NY. Politics is a business, and an individual career, and it is far more about looking out for number one. Ideology sucks. That is the mindset.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Well I'm going to post my map anyway after tweaking a few things.

Fun fact: My church's "Leap of Faith 2012" packet advises on Tuesdays during the season to "worship through creativity" "doing something creative that connects you to God" then mentioning "Write, journal, draw, sing, dance, sew, paint, build, whatever comes to mind". So I did this by...drawing maps on DRA. And some primary prediction county maps in MS Paint.

[patrick1]

I'm really have a tough time following all the twists and turns of this byzantine redistricting proces.  Can someone inform me if this very basic summary is right-

Dems and Reps cannot agree on map

Cuomo is pissed and an agreement is hammered out by both parties to have an independent Judge draw up a map

Craven career politicians on both sides get scared and decide to cooperate to perpetuate their power

Cuomo throws up his hands and punts 10 years for change in state Constit.
- Lost on where things stand now.

I know their will be several different Republican primaries and I'm looking to see even what districts I will be in.

Any links to updates would be appreciated.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Analysis coming up...

[patrick1]

BRTD, that district with the Rockaway peninsula, what looks like could be South Jamaica and SW Nassau is GROSS

And if anyone could respond to my previous post, Id greatly appreciate it.  I have no clue what the current status is. I'm just trying to piece it together for forum posts and a few NYTimes articles. Thanks.

[cinyc]

I'm really have a tough time following all the twists and turns of this byzantine redistricting proces.  Can someone inform me if this very basic summary is right-

Dems and Reps cannot agree on map

Cuomo is pissed and an agreement is hammered out by both parties to have an independent Judge draw up a map

Craven career politicians on both sides get scared and decide to cooperate to perpetuate their power

Cuomo throws up his hands and punts 10 years for change in state Constit.
- Lost on where things stand now.

I know their will be several different Republican primaries and I'm looking to see even what districts I will be in.

Any links to updates would be appreciated.

The Assembly passed the state Senate and Assembly redistricting plans tonight 93-43.   The State Senate just passed it 36-0 with most Democrats leaving the chamber because debate was cut off after 2.5 hours.  The Senate then passed the constitutional amendment creating an independent redistricting commission in 2020.  Because constitutional amendments require passage by two successive legislatures, there's some sort of hammer provision that takes away the ability of the legislators to appoint members to the commission if it's not passed again next year.  The legislature has a sort of veto power over the commission maps, though they wouldn't have free reign to draw whatever they want.  The Senate and Assembly majority wanted to pass this tonight because there's a court hearing on the progress of the state maps tomorrow.

This is all part of a grand compromise package that includes casino gambling, pension reform and redistricting reform, among other things, which is why Cuomo is caving.

The US House maps are NOT included in this package.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Alright:

Long Island
Swing districts: 1, 4, 5, 8, 10
Republican districts: 2, 3, 7
Dem districts: 9

9 is majority minority and almost 70% Obama. Some of those swing districts are in the vicinity of 55-56% Obama but since Republicans hold such seats on Long Island now I'm calling them swing. 2 voted for Obama 50-48 but almost certainly would elect a Republican.

10 doesn't go too far into Jamaica. It has a lot of land area, but that's because of the airport.

NYC
OK some interesting districts but the only ones worth noting from a partisan perspective are 20 (the pink south Brooklyn one), 23 (southern Staten Island) and 24 (the purple one near 21, NY Jew's dream seat). 21 is basically a swing seat, 51.1% McCain, but Democrats hold such districts in that area now. 23 would obviously go Republican, (61.3% McCain FTR), 24 is 62.3% McCain but who knows how bloc voting in that area goes, so we'll call it a swing seat. The rest are obviously all safe Dem (11-36), so that's 23 Dem seats, 2 swing ones and 1 Republican.

Westchester area
You got a south Westchester seat, 37 (dark blue) and a northern seat (teal), both are >60% Obama, oddly the outer one is more Dem (62.2-61.7%). Both go Dem. 39 is Rockland County's seat, it has almost enough population for a district, lol. Probably held by a Republican despite being won by Obama. Further north you have two likely Republican seats, though the green one was about 52% Obama (the brown one is about 50%) McCain, so 3-2 from this region.

Further upstate
Well count this up till 55 (the one right west of Syracuse). The safe or near safe Dem seats are 41 (Kingston-Poughkeepsie, about 58% Obama), 45 (Albany), 51 ("Only" about 55% Obama, but since it contains Ithaca the GOP's going to need a hell of a candidate running up the vote in the non-Ithaca areas) and 53 (Syracuse). 44 would be winnable for the Dems, (53.2% Obama, running up to Canada on the Vermont border), also possibilities are 46 (Schenectady), 50 (Binghamton), 54 (Suburban Syracuse-Oswego) which were about 52-53% Obama. 43 (that pink rural area), 47 (around Albany) and 48 (the other big northern seat) all voted for Obama with about 51%, but thus would be kind of tricky to win in most years. 49 (Utica-Rome) was 52.8% McCain and 55 (Auburn) voted for Obama by just a couple hundred votes, probably truly unwinnable. So 4 Dem seats, 5 likely Republican seats, and 3 swing ones, that would no doubt be Republican held now.

West
52 (ugly color on the southern border), 58 (purple) and 59 (red) are obviously all very safe Republican seats. That guy in Rochester is doomed, district 57 contains the city and is 73% Obama. 62 is the main Buffalo seat, that's 75% Obama. 60 (the yellow seat along the coast) and 61 (Niagara Falls to Amherst) are swing districts, about 52.5% Obama and 54.8% Obama respectively, 56 (suburban Rochester) is 51% Obama, so probably would be won by a Republican most of the time. 2 Dem seats, 2 swing, and 4 Republican.

So that's 32 Dem seats, 16 Republican, and 14 swing. Probably ends up with about 36-39 Dem seats.

[patrick1]

I'm really have a tough time following all the twists and turns of this byzantine redistricting proces.  Can someone inform me if this very basic summary is right-

Dems and Reps cannot agree on map

Cuomo is pissed and an agreement is hammered out by both parties to have an independent Judge draw up a map

Craven career politicians on both sides get scared and decide to cooperate to perpetuate their power

Cuomo throws up his hands and punts 10 years for change in state Constit.
- Lost on where things stand now.

I know their will be several different Republican primaries and I'm looking to see even what districts I will be in.

Any links to updates would be appreciated.

The Assembly passed the state Senate and Assembly redistricting plans tonight 93-43.   The State Senate just passed it 36-0 with most Democrats leaving the chamber because debate was cut off after 2.5 hours.  The Senate then passed the constitutional amendment creating an independent redistricting commission in 2020.  Because constitutional amendments require passage by two successive legislatures, there's some sort of hammer provision that takes away the ability of the legislators to appoint members to the commission if it's not passed again next year.  The legislature has a sort of veto power over the commission maps, though they wouldn't have free reign to draw whatever they want.  The Senate and Assembly majority wanted to pass this tonight because there's a court hearing on the progress of the state maps tomorrow.

This is all part of a grand compromise package that includes casino gambling, pension reform and redistricting reform, among other things, which is why Cuomo is caving.

The US House maps are NOT included in this package.

Thanks a million, Cinyc.  It seems that following all of the twists in Albany is nearly a full time job.  Do you have a link to the maps that were passed and what in the world is going on with the House now? I'm a registered Republican and will probably have like 3 different primaries on separate dates. I'm doing my best to try and keep up.

[cinyc]

Thanks a million, Cinyc.  It seems that following all of the twists in Albany is nearly a full time job.  Do you have a link to the maps that were passed and what in the world is going on with the House now? I'm a registered Republican and will probably have like 3 different primaries on separate dates. I'm doing my best to try and keep up.

State Senate
Assembly

We're almost certainly going to have three primaries this year - the Presidential primary in April, the federal offices primary in June and the state offices primary in September, assuming there are candidates in your district for the latter two.  There probably will be a Republican primary for US Senator given the number of declared candidates, so it's really a question of whether there are multiple State Senate and Assembly candidates in your districts (or a local race, if there is one).  Some good government groups want to hold the state primaries in June, too - but the petitioning period would begin in a matter of weeks if they did that, so it's probably not going to happen.

[patrick1]

Thanks a million, Cinyc.  It seems that following all of the twists in Albany is nearly a full time job.  Do you have a link to the maps that were passed and what in the world is going on with the House now? I'm a registered Republican and will probably have like 3 different primaries on separate dates. I'm doing my best to try and keep up.

State Senate
Assembly

We're almost certainly going to have three primaries this year - the Presidential primary in April, the federal offices primary in June and the state offices primary in September, assuming there are candidates in your district for the latter two.  There probably will be a Republican primary for US Senator given the number of declared candidates, so it's really a question of whether there are multiple State Senate and Assembly candidates in your districts (or a local race, if there is one).  Some good government groups want to hold the state primaries in June, too - but the petitioning period would begin in a matter of weeks if they did that, so it's probably not going to happen.

Well, I am in Skelos' district so nothing there.  From your link it looks like I lost my Assemblyman.  It was Curran, however, it appears I will now be in the first/last block of an open seat, DOJ approved 22. There certainly will be a primary but demographically it looks like he/she will be a R loser.

[krazen1211]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

[Torie]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

One would have thought Ackerman would have been competitive. Crowley gets a lot of new territory too. I'm surprised. Is that just because I don't know enough on this one? 

[cinyc]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

One would have thought Ackerman would have been competitive. Crowley gets a lot of new territory too. I'm surprised. Is that just because I don't know enough on this one? 

Crowley has wanted an all-Queens district instead of representing the Bronx.   It's not clear that he's running in NY-06 yet, though.

The ironic thing is that a Democrat who was thinking of running against Ackerman announced he wasn't running this afternoon before Ackerman's announcement.

[krazen1211]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

One would have thought Ackerman would have been competitive. Crowley gets a lot of new territory too. I'm surprised. Is that just because I don't know enough on this one? 

Joe Crowley is the Queens Democratic Party chairman, and the 6th district lies wholly within Queens.

[Sam Spade]

Crowley wins all those types of battles.

Looking at the State Senate map, it pretty much preserves the previous gerrymander of Long Island, though I'm sure there are changes here and there.  The seats that the Republicans gained back in 2010 were 3 and 7 that were lost in 2008 - I'd really need to examine these boundaries closely to see what was done.  5 and 6 have also been somewhat close in the 2006/2008 cycle, fwiw, the others were never close.

NYC becomes even more gerrymandered than before, in Brooklyn, particularly, - Avella (11) and Stavisky (16) are pulled into the same district on the edges, but this is Avella's territory.  Huntley (10), Gianaris (12), Peralta (13), Smith (14) retain pretty much the same shape, though note the finger they created in Addabo's district (15). (16) is open (as noted above) and a monstrosity as before - I need to see whether anything's different here - doesn't look like it on its face.  (17) is the NY Jew seat, formed from Kruger and part of Parker. Dilan, formerly (17), now becomes (18), basically the same.  Sampson (19) nor Adams (20) receives no real change worth mentioning, except Adams gets Sunset Park for some reason now, in exchange for his parts of the new NY Jew seat.  It's also an ugly gerrymander.

Parker (21) is pushed northwards, gaining more black liberal areas.  Marty Golden (GOP) in (22) took the parts of Kruger's seat that were marginal/Republican, but not Jewish - it is a gerrymander of beauty.  Savino (23) and Lanza (GOP) (24) are also pretty much the same as before. Montgomery, formerly (18), now becomes (25), basically the same.  I'm still in Squadron's district now renumbered as (26) from (25), but no real material changes.  Duane is renumbered (27) after being (29), and loses a lot of the upper West Side north of 72nd Street (don't know why) and there's also some weird gerrymander into MSG/Penn Station/Port Authority Bus Terminal for Espillat that I can't explain. Liz Kreuger's UES/Murray Hill SD becomes (28) from (26) and becomes a bit less compact.  Serrano (29) from (28) trades some of Spanish Harlem for a chunk of the Upper West Side above 72nd, which I can't particularly figure out either.  Perkins (30) still has his Harlem seat.

Getting to Espillat (31), his seat is still Washington Heights and chunks other places.  Diaz in (32) becomes much uglier, probably to protect him even better, I would suspect.  I don't believe Rivera (33) changes in any substantial way.  Klein (34) loses most of his Westchester parts, but retains basically the same structure otherwise, gaining more of the parts of the upper income/white Bronx (to the extent such things exist of course).  Hassell-Thompson gets nicer boundaries (36), but is basically the same black district.

I'll do upstate tomorrow (35 and 37-63), but as we can see, the GOP is looking to create the new NY Jew seat and shore up Golden in Brooklyn (like he really needs much - the problem is when he retires) to get 3 seats out of the city instead of 2.  I'll have to look over Queens to see if any games are being played there - nothing shows on its face, so the GOP may have well left that alone, realizing that it is probably gone.  I also need to look over Long Island - there are probably some changes at the margins that I'm missing.

State Assembly is not really worth messing with too much - pretty sure it preserves the same Dem gerrymander and massive margins.

[Torie]

No surprise, but the appellate court seems disinclined to mess much with the Congressional map Judge Mann drew, if at all. One judge noted the ripple effect, and if you mess in one place, that has consequences elsewhere, and so forth, and time is short anyway. Nobody really lodged any real objections anyway, other than the Senate Pubs who whimpered that no cognizance was taken as to where incumbents lived. That one is going absolutely nowhere.