US House Redistricting: New York

[Torie]

Sam, on the state senate, how effectively did the Pubs move the ball towards their goal of making their majority more secure than it is now? What is the partisan PVI number which is at the tipping point between control and losing control?  Are the tipping point seats around Pub PVI +3%, or greater or less?

[NY Jew]

Crowley wins all those types of battles.

Looking at the State Senate map, it pretty much preserves the previous gerrymander of Long Island, though I'm sure there are changes here and there.  The seats that the Republicans gained back in 2010 were 3 and 7 that were lost in 2008 - I'd really need to examine these boundaries closely to see what was done.  5 and 6 have also been somewhat close in the 2006/2008 cycle, fwiw, the others were never close.

NYC becomes even more gerrymandered than before, in Brooklyn, particularly, - Avella (11) and Stavisky (16) are pulled into the same district on the edges, but this is Avella's territory.  Huntley (10), Gianaris (12), Peralta (13), Smith (14) retain pretty much the same shape, though note the finger they created in Addabo's district (15). (16) is open (as noted above) and a monstrosity as before - I need to see whether anything's different here - doesn't look like it on its face.  (17) is the NY Jew seat, formed from Kruger and part of Parker. Dilan, formerly (17), now becomes (18), basically the same.  Sampson (19) nor Adams (20) receives no real change worth mentioning, except Adams gets Sunset Park for some reason now, in exchange for his parts of the new NY Jew seat.  It's also an ugly gerrymander.

Parker (21) is pushed northwards, gaining more black liberal areas.  Marty Golden (GOP) in (22) took the parts of Kruger's seat that were marginal/Republican, but not Jewish - it is a gerrymander of beauty.  Savino (23) and Lanza (GOP) (24) are also pretty much the same as before. Montgomery, formerly (18), now becomes (25), basically the same.  I'm still in Squadron's district now renumbered as (26) from (25), but no real material changes.  Duane is renumbered (27) after being (29), and loses a lot of the upper West Side north of 72nd Street (don't know why) and there's also some weird gerrymander into MSG/Penn Station/Port Authority Bus Terminal for Espillat that I can't explain. Liz Kreuger's UES/Murray Hill SD becomes (28) from (26) and becomes a bit less compact.  Serrano (29) from (28) trades some of Spanish Harlem for a chunk of the Upper West Side above 72nd, which I can't particularly figure out either.  Perkins (30) still has his Harlem seat.

Getting to Espillat (31), his seat is still Washington Heights and chunks other places.  Diaz in (32) becomes much uglier, probably to protect him even better, I would suspect.  I don't believe Rivera (33) changes in any substantial way.  Klein (34) loses most of his Westchester parts, but retains basically the same structure otherwise, gaining more of the parts of the upper income/white Bronx (to the extent such things exist of course).  Hassell-Thompson gets nicer boundaries (36), but is basically the same black district.

I'll do upstate tomorrow (35 and 37-63), but as we can see, the GOP is looking to create the new NY Jew seat and shore up Golden in Brooklyn (like he really needs much - the problem is when he retires) to get 3 seats out of the city instead of 2.  I'll have to look over Queens to see if any games are being played there - nothing shows on its face, so the GOP may have well left that alone, realizing that it is probably gone.  I also need to look over Long Island - there are probably some changes at the margins that I'm missing.

State Assembly is not really worth messing with too much - pretty sure it preserves the same Dem gerrymander and massive margins.

Golden's takes in some very Jewish areas

[traininthedistance]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

http://www.cityandstateny.com/lancman-mix-crowley-ny-6/

Crowley is running in the 14th, not the 6th.

[krazen1211]

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-gary-ackerman-to-retire/

Longtime New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman will retire at the end of the 112th Congress, he announced tonight.



Crowley elbowed Ackerman out.

http://www.cityandstateny.com/lancman-mix-crowley-ny-6/

Crowley is running in the 14th, not the 6th.

Very interesting. I guess then the idea that Crowley wanted a district with less Hispanics is not really as true as was indicated.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, on the state senate, how effectively did the Pubs move the ball towards their goal of making their majority more secure than it is now? What is the partisan PVI number which is at the tipping point between control and losing control?  Are the tipping point seats around Pub PVI +3%, or greater or less?

The Senate wouldn't have proposed this map if they didn't think it secured things stronger (exactly how much that is in reality, who knows)

In Long Island, the tipping point seats will have Dem PVIs, probably D+3 to D+5, but I don't know exactly.  Truthfully, I suspect most (if not all) of the seats would be marginal in a national environment, after all Long Island as a whole is about D+1, D+2.  I need to really break down the changes in the SDs to see what happened to SDs 3, 5, 6 and 7, as these were the problem/close seats in 2006/2008.  The GOP controls it all - so all they can go is down, anyways.

In NYC, Lanza is a GOP PVI seat, the NY Jew seat is certainly one, though historically Dem down the ballot (but that is probably changing too).  Golden's seat certainly got more Republican areas, so it may have gotten back to a GOP PVI (I know it wasn't before), but I don't know for sure.  At any rate, Golden will never be beaten so long as he's on the ballot, so who cares. 

As you are aware, the GOP lost their last historical seat in Queens in the last election, but I don't know whether any of the games that I'm seeing would have any effect in the Queens seats that are most favorable to the GOP.  I suspect not, as I think that ship has sailed.  The Republicans aren't packed like they are in Brooklyn.

All in all, I really can only see the GOP, at best, getting one seat from this map in NYC and Long Island.  (presently 24-11 (techically 23-11-1), with 2 "independent" Dems) Upstate is 21-6, so I have to see what seats have actually been made more problematic.  Upstate will be later, and I'll give a little more of a close look.

[cinyc]

The Senate wouldn't have proposed this map if they didn't think it secured things stronger (exactly how much that is in reality, who knows)

In Long Island, the tipping point seats will have Dem PVIs, probably D+3 to D+5, but I don't know exactly.  Truthfully, I suspect most (if not all) of the seats would be marginal in a national environment, after all Long Island as a whole is about D+1, D+2.  I need to really break down the changes in the SDs to see what happened to SDs 3, 5, 6 and 7, as these were the problem/close seats in 2006/2008.  The GOP controls it all - so all they can go is down, anyways.

In NYC, Lanza is a GOP PVI seat, the NY Jew seat is certainly one, though historically Dem down the ballot (but that is probably changing too).  Golden's seat certainly got more Republican areas, so it may have gotten back to a GOP PVI (I know it wasn't before), but I don't know for sure.  At any rate, Golden will never be beaten so long as he's on the ballot, so who cares. 

As you are aware, the GOP lost their last historical seat in Queens in the last election, but I don't know whether any of the games that I'm seeing would have any effect in the Queens seats that are most favorable to the GOP.  I suspect not, as I think that ship has sailed.  The Republicans aren't packed like they are in Brooklyn.

All in all, I really can only see the GOP, at best, getting one seat from this map in NYC and Long Island.  (presently 24-11 (techically 23-11-1), with 2 "independent" Dems) Upstate is 21-6, so I have to see what seats have actually been made more problematic.  Upstate will be later, and I'll give a little more of a close look.

SD-37 was gerrymandered to give Republicans their best shot at winning a Westchester seat.  With the Republican incumbents in SD-34 and 35 long gone, the more Republican-leaning areas of those districts, Eastchester and Eastern Yonkers, were added to SD-37, while Democratic-leaning Scarsdale and parts of White Plains and New Rochelle were put into SD-35.   SD-37 also added Republican-leaning Bedford and lost Ossining and New Castle in the northern part of the county.  The SD-37 incumbent Democrat is retiring after almost losing under the more Dem-favorable old lines last cycle, so the Senate must think the district will be competitive if not lean Republican.

[Mr.Phips]

The Senate wouldn't have proposed this map if they didn't think it secured things stronger (exactly how much that is in reality, who knows)

In Long Island, the tipping point seats will have Dem PVIs, probably D+3 to D+5, but I don't know exactly.  Truthfully, I suspect most (if not all) of the seats would be marginal in a national environment, after all Long Island as a whole is about D+1, D+2.  I need to really break down the changes in the SDs to see what happened to SDs 3, 5, 6 and 7, as these were the problem/close seats in 2006/2008.  The GOP controls it all - so all they can go is down, anyways.

In NYC, Lanza is a GOP PVI seat, the NY Jew seat is certainly one, though historically Dem down the ballot (but that is probably changing too).  Golden's seat certainly got more Republican areas, so it may have gotten back to a GOP PVI (I know it wasn't before), but I don't know for sure.  At any rate, Golden will never be beaten so long as he's on the ballot, so who cares. 

As you are aware, the GOP lost their last historical seat in Queens in the last election, but I don't know whether any of the games that I'm seeing would have any effect in the Queens seats that are most favorable to the GOP.  I suspect not, as I think that ship has sailed.  The Republicans aren't packed like they are in Brooklyn.

All in all, I really can only see the GOP, at best, getting one seat from this map in NYC and Long Island.  (presently 24-11 (techically 23-11-1), with 2 "independent" Dems) Upstate is 21-6, so I have to see what seats have actually been made more problematic.  Upstate will be later, and I'll give a little more of a close look.

SD-37 was gerrymandered to give Republicans their best shot at winning a Westchester seat.  With the Republican incumbents in SD-34 and 35 long gone, the more Republican-leaning areas of those districts, Eastchester and Eastern Yonkers, were added to SD-37, while Democratic-leaning Scarsdale and parts of White Plains and New Rochelle were put into SD-35.   SD-37 also added Republican-leaning Bedford and lost Ossining and New Castle in the northern part of the county.  The SD-37 incumbent Democrat is retiring after almost losing under the more Dem-favorable old lines last cycle, so the Senate must think the district will be competitive if not lean Republican.

Oppenheimer almost lost in 2010 because independents were more Republican than they will ever be for another 40 years and Democratic turnout fell through the floor.  The only way Republicans will pick up that seat in 2012 is if the Obama percentage is moved down to the low 50's. 

Upstate, there are only three Democratic held districts and they will probably need to be packed further to help out Republican incumbents in surrounding areas.  I wonder what they did to help Greg Ball just north of Westchester, who only won 51%-49% in the best Republican year in many generations. 

[cinyc]

Oppenheimer almost lost in 2010 because independents were more Republican than they will ever be for another 40 years and Democratic turnout fell through the floor.  The only way Republicans will pick up that seat in 2012 is if the Obama percentage is moved down to the low 50's. 

Upstate, there are only three Democratic held districts and they will probably need to be packed further to help out Republican incumbents in surrounding areas.  I wonder what they did to help Greg Ball just north of Westchester, who only won 51%-49% in the best Republican year in many generations. 

Given that Westchester state senate districts have been held by Republicans in the past decade, I seriously doubt that independents were more Republican in 2010 than they will ever be for 40 years.  They were even more Republican in prior years when Republicans won and can be more Republican in the future. 

Coattails are overrated.  Republicans hold plenty of Long Island State Senate seats where Obama was in the mid-50s.  A Republican could win SD-37 under similar circumstances.

Ball was given the other Republican-friendly town in old SD-35, Mount Pleasant.  It is one of the most Republican-leaning towns in the county.  But he lost about half of Putnam County, so that may just offset what was lost instead of shore him up.  Without the need to shore up a Republican incumbent, SD-35 is now a Democratic vote sink in the southern and central parts of Westchester.

[Mr.Phips]

Oppenheimer almost lost in 2010 because independents were more Republican than they will ever be for another 40 years and Democratic turnout fell through the floor.  The only way Republicans will pick up that seat in 2012 is if the Obama percentage is moved down to the low 50's. 

Upstate, there are only three Democratic held districts and they will probably need to be packed further to help out Republican incumbents in surrounding areas.  I wonder what they did to help Greg Ball just north of Westchester, who only won 51%-49% in the best Republican year in many generations. 

Given that Westchester state senate districts have been held by Republicans in the past decade, I seriously doubt that independents were more Republican in 2010 than they will ever be for 40 years.  They were even more Republican in prior years when Republicans won and can be more Republican in the future. 

Coattails are overrated.  Republicans hold plenty of Long Island State Senate seats where Obama was in the mid-50s.  A Republican could win SD-37 under similar circumstances.

Ball was given the other Republican-friendly town in old SD-35, Mount Pleasant.  It is one of the most Republican-leaning towns in the county.  But he lost about half of Putnam County, so that may just offset what was lost instead of shore him up.  Without the need to shore up a Republican incumbent, SD-35 is now a Democratic vote sink in the southern and central parts of Westchester.

Republicans held those Long-Island seats as LONG TIME INCUMBENTS.  The Westchester districts were held by Republicans in the past, just like Democrats held many districts in Alabama and Tennessee in the past. 

The only way Republicans win the new SD-37 in 2012 is if they somehow get the Obama percentage down to 53% or below.  There is no popular long time incumbent running there like on Long Island. 

I also would like to see what happened to SD-07, where Craig Johnson barely lost in 2010.   He would be very stupid not to run again unless the district is somehow made much more Republican. 

[cinyc]

Republicans held those Long-Island seats as LONG TIME INCUMBENTS.  The Westchester districts were held by Republicans in the past, just like Democrats held many districts in Alabama and Tennessee in the past.

Westchester County is not Alabama or Tennessee.  The county executive is a Republican and Republicans picked up county board seats last cycle.  Part of the county has a Republican congresswoman.  If anything, the county is trending Republican after trending Democratic during the Bush years.

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It will be a totally open seat with no incumbent at all that voted 50-50 in the 2010 legislative elections.  And coattails are overrated.   Republicans won back the state Senate last cycle despite having a dreadful gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket. 

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Not a ton.  It's hard to tell exactly what happened because Long Island doesn't have many towns and the maps don't show villages, but it looks like SD-07 took in a little bit more of Hicksville in exchange for losing part of Elmont.  That's about it.  I'd be surprised if its partisan makeup moved more than a point.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans held those Long-Island seats as LONG TIME INCUMBENTS.  The Westchester districts were held by Republicans in the past, just like Democrats held many districts in Alabama and Tennessee in the past.

Westchester County is not Alabama or Tennessee.  The county executive is a Republican and Republicans picked up county board seats last cycle.  Part of the county has a Republican congresswoman.  If anything, the county is trending Republican after trending Democratic during the Bush years.

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It will be a totally open seat with no incumbent at all that voted 50-50 in the 2010 legislative elections.  And coattails are overrated.   Republicans won back the state Senate last cycle despite having a dreadful gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.  

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Not a ton.  It's hard to tell exactly what happened because Long Island doesn't have many towns and the maps don't show villages, but it looks like SD-07 took in a little bit more of Hicksville in exchange for losing part of Elmont.  That's about it.  I'd be surprised if its partisan makeup moved more than a point.

The county executive is Republican elected in the Republican heavy 2009-2010 cycle where Democratic turnout fell through the floor and indepndents were heavily Republican.  

Republicans won back the state Senate in 2010 because Cuomo refused to help downballot Democrats and the Republican candidtate was so much of a joke that there was no real campaign to drive turnout on the Democratic side.  50-50 in 2010 is really like 55-45 Dem in a normal cycle.  Republicans did about five points better than normal across the board in 2010.

Democrats were asleep in 2009 and 2010.  They wont be in 2012 or 2014 thanks to the orange Speaker. 

[BigSkyBob]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

Decent enough call.

[BigSkyBob]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

Very bad call.

[BigSkyBob]

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001?  

Torie, New York is about many different moving gears.  In 2001, you had Assembly Democrats, Senate Republicans, and a Republican Governor.  They were free to strike a deal that would disadvantage the other gears on the board.

In 2010, there's enough of a redistricting reform force at work that nothing outrageously crazy gerrymander-wise is going to be passed (outside of what already exists).  The New York Republicans don't have very solid control over the Senate either, so their own piece on the board is weak.

Bad call.

[BigSkyBob]

Torie, the scenario you describe happened in 2002 when there was a split legislature and a Republican governor. The congressional maps went to a judge or special master and the results were so disruptive to Republican incumbents that both sides freaked out and worked out an incumbent protection compromise that froze a Republican advantage in western NY and a Democratic advantage on LI. Republicans have more to lose than Democrats if it goes to the courts.

I also don't think there's much discipline of any type, party or moral, in the New York State Senate to count on. I wouldn't expect them to save the national GOP's bacon on this map any more than the Virginia Senate Democrats are going to use their leverage to upend the table in that state and force the Republicans to unpack the old gerrymander, or that Jan Schakowsky is going to torpedo a Dem gerrymander in Illinois because she would fight tooth and nail any watering down her district. It's a pipe dream.

Very bad call.

[BigSkyBob]

I suspect the Republicans have the advantage in New York. They can say, look if you don't suck up the loss of both seats, we will just let the courts draw the map, wrecking havoc with all of your sordid little NYC district deals, and your favorite boy Hinchey Mr. Silver, is going to be gone anyway, and we want him gone, because he is just so annoying.

So, just draw an octopus connecting inner city Rochester to Syracuse to Ithaca to some more Dem territory up there in the far Northeast, or maybe Rome, put all of Buffalo in one CD (maybe Buffalo could go grab Ithaca, but it is a long way, and get rid of Engel down in Westchester and environs. We really don't have that much to lose anyway. If we lose an extra seat per the court map, but render chaos and animus in your ranks, the schadenfreude will more than make up for it. So go ahead, and just say no, and make our day when you see what the court map does to you. Do you really want to take that risk?

That is the approach I would take. I would give the Dems as it pertains to protecting the incumbent Pubbies, a close to a take it or leave it map.

The flex by the way, is that the Buffalo district was drawn by the Pubbies to protect their incumbent Quinn back in 2001, but he retired, and a Dem holds the seat now, so cede it to him. That sucks up a lot of upstate Dems, and allows the Rochester CD to get out of Buffalo, and into Syracuse and Ithaca and the like.

I doubt the GOP will try that.  Keep in mind the GOP has the State Senate by the skin of their teeth and that is GOP Gerrymander.  If the GOP goes the court route it will likely backfire big time on them with the State Senate lines.

Good point I guess, but then the court will draw the Assembly districts too. Are the Dems going to put the legislative seats on the table to save one Dem Congressperson?  Why didn't that happen in 2001? 

The Dems have a massive advantage in the Assembly, even if the Assembly districts are drawn by the courts they will still have a massive advantage.  The GOP would have more to lose by bringing it to the courts, it would result in a Permanent Dem Majority in the Senate and a diminished but still massive Dem majority in the Assembly.

Due to the GOP's minimal advantage in the State Senate which is heavily gerrymandered in the GOP's favor, they really have no leverage to take it to the courts.  My guess is each side loses a Congressional seat, the rest is something similar to the Incumbent Protection, GOP gets to draw the Senate, Dems the Assembly.  That is probably the best the GOP can hope for

Wrong about the weakness. Correct about the outcome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stop being a prick, Bob.

[minionofmidas]

Are you denying Bob's right to exist?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are you denying Bob's right to exist?

Only in his current form.

[Brittain33]

Stop being a prick, Bob.

Very good call.

[Torie]

It would indeed by a nightmare if some sadist dredged up all my old posts for evaluation. I would probably be driven to put such a person on ignore. It would all be just too embarrassing.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It would indeed by a nightmare if some sadist dredged up all my old posts for evaluation. I would probably be driven to put such a person on ignore. It would all be just too embarrassing.

Well you were right in what he did dredge up here. At the time, both of the eliminated seats were held by Democrats so in a way they did end up taking the hit for both.

[Torie]

Well Slaughter is going to have her hands full it appears, and Owens won't be getting the help he got last time.

In Rochester, (NY-25), three term Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks (R), plans to announce her candidacy for the seat held by Ms. Slaughter tomorrow.

In NY-21, GOP party splitter and problem child Doug Hoffman won't be stirring the waters this time, so the Conservative and GOP party will have but one candidate to face Bill Owens (D) in the fall.

Thanks to Red Racing horses for the hat tip.

Down south, Lowey's new CD has agitated the Pubs out of their slumber perhaps.

Oh, and here is an incendiary tidbit about why Cuomo signed off on the Pub gerrymander for the State Senate (and insurance of no Dem gerrymander later) in such a lamb-like manner.

[Brittain33]

Down south, Lowey's new CD has agitated the Pubs out of their slumber perhaps.

Carvin sounds like a vanity candidate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Both of those races are safe D. All they'll do is force Slaughter and Lowey to raise and spend money.