US House Redistricting: New York

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is this the decade they finally chop Staten Island in half?

You can turn the 13th into a 60% McCain district by ditching the areas along Northern Staten Island to the 8th and picking up all the bloodred territory in Queens.

Its possible if a pro-incumbent gerrymander is in order. Are you sure about those numbers, though?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Slaughter a Rochester-Syracuse district?  It makes her district much safer, and opens up some of the more Republican parts of the Rochester area to help buffer NY-25 and NY-24.

I don't think there are any  Republicans in the Rochester area that are still in Slaughters district. Her current district is basically Rochester itself, and a strip along Lake Ontario to Niagara Falls. When they split LaFalce's Niagara based CD up, they wanted to keep the most Dem areas like Niagara Falls out of the new 26th which was to be held by Tom "Give me a district that will allow me to vote like a Southern Conservative" Reynolds.  


Do we really think that the Democrats in the Assembly who are mostly from NYC and downstate are going to give a rats ass about Syracuse. In the old days, when the GOP dominated both houses of the state legislature, they used to screw with the downstate area quite a lot. Now, I do beleive the city is represented by Republicans in the State Senate, which could add an interesting dynamic to things.


And keep in mind that Syracuse was split in two in the 1970s. Rochester was split between Horton and Conable/Slaughter untill the 1991. And Erie County has been split many ways over the decades. This will be the first time in many decades, that Buffalo will likely have one district that it shares with Niagara Falls. There is nothing new about splitting upstate cities.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Slaughter's CD takes in the black part of the city of Buffalo in Erie County.

Yes, that is true. My description above was slightly misleading but it served its purpose.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You aren't the first. The problem is such would probably elect a Democrat in most circumstances. McCain got a lot of votes from Orthadox jews that usually vote pretty straight ticket D, downballot.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Don't you mean, "Hinchey"?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ah, Torie, last I checked Scozzafava isn't in Congress, nor will she be anytime soon.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Muon2 thinks Hispanic CD's ideally should be 65% Hispanic.  

When it comes to redistricting, there is no statutory guidance or "legislative intent" other than the VRA.  61% is certainly not packing for an Hispanic CD with low voter turnout and non citizens, particularly if it is not really possible to create another Hispanic CD. Whether a court does it is another matter (Muon2 thinks the Hispanics will be pushing for a high percentage but who knows?), but it is certainly legal in my opinion. My white Brooklyn CD certainly does combine communities of interest, and that counts - even for whites. To me it is much more natural to dump the Carolyn Maloney seat (current NY-04).

However, if I am representing the Pubbies in the legislature, and you the Dems, one thing that I do know. We will get a court drawn map! We don't seem to agree on much at all, and just "coincidentally" what you think will happen is a Dem wet dream, and what I think will happen is a quite a Pubbie one  (although maybe not quite as much wet as yours is for the Dems).  So we won't be able to agree on a map given our totally disparate views of the default option, and thus our "negotiation" will be very short, before we just shake hands, and file our lawsuits, and so forth.    

McCarthy. Carolyn McCarthy. Why are you hating on NY delegation so much?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Does Hochul really need 55%+ or would 50% Obama or so be enough?


Also, what are discussions pertaining to Bob Turner's district? Have their been any leaks in that regard?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Plus ultra safe seats tend to dum down incumbents and make them less strong politically.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?

Under my rules for a fair map (similar to MI) there should be a district entirely within Erie. That forces Buffalo into the district entirely within Erie so it couldn't link to Niagara Falls. I assume that anyone mapping them linked was doing so to make a stronger R district. As it is, I ended up with an R+5 including Niagara Falls, and R+6 for the 200 K remainder of Erie so it's not that bad for the GOP.

I was thinking more in terms of a CA style mapping rather than a MI style map which many argue isn't that fair. As such partisan considersations were completely irrelevant and my primary concern was whether Niagara Falls had a better justification for being in an urban seat with Buffalo, then a bunch of rural Erie precincts.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?

Under my rules for a fair map (similar to MI) there should be a district entirely within Erie. That forces Buffalo into the district entirely within Erie so it couldn't link to Niagara Falls. I assume that anyone mapping them linked was doing so to make a stronger R district. As it is, I ended up with an R+5 including Niagara Falls, and R+6 for the 200 K remainder of Erie so it's not that bad for the GOP.

I was thinking more in terms of a CA style mapping rather than a MI style map which many argue isn't that fair. As such partisan considersations were completely irrelevant and my primary concern was whether Niagara Falls had a better justification for being in an urban seat with Buffalo, then a bunch of rural Erie precincts.

Actually the MI rules worked very well in the 1980 and 90 remaps. They were so well-regarded that MI codified them. However they didn't put in any tests for partisan bias, since the issue hadn't occurred. When a single party had control the lack of a cross check allowed the rules to be bent to partisan advantage.

Certainly one could make a CA style judgement that NF should be with Buffalo and then draw a map accordingly. It will strengthen the adjacent GOP districts and make the area less competitive. I think that those type of judgement calls can lead to problems as well as seen in AZ this year.

So basically a gerrymander that doesn't look like a gerrymander. Even with the lipstick, the pig is still a pig. In my opinion, a fair map isn't what machine hack Repub and machine hack dem in a back room in Albany agree to scratch onto a map with their crayons. Therefore I don't think we can rely on bipartisan agreements to achieve the desired results. You can only do so much to leesh a legislature with standards, as MI proves and in FL is proving this time. Independent Non-Partisan Redistricting>Legislaitive Redistricting.

Whether it is your map or the one Torie did (if I recall it had a Buffalo seat then a Niagara Co. to PA seat surronding it), the question one has to ask is that "is it fair to put Niagara Falls, an urban area, into a district where it will be swamped by rural voters in a belt from Lake Ontario to PA, or place it into a district that would share similar urban rust belt issues, as it would with the city of Buffalo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems should just let the GOP draw the state map in exchange for a Dem congress map. Don't see how they can make the senate safe in a D+10 state.

And why on earth would the GOP agree to that?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I hope Cuomo stands firm against both parties. Doesn't he have every incentive to kick it to the courts if the lines aren't to his liking?

How hard is it to amend the state constitution in NY?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The voter approval is the easy part. It is getting the corrupt idiots in Albany to vote away their job security insurance.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In a "fair" map, would Niagara Falls and Buffalo be placed into a district together or would they prefer to keep the Buffalo seat entirely within Erie county?

Under my rules for a fair map (similar to MI) there should be a district entirely within Erie. That forces Buffalo into the district entirely within Erie so it couldn't link to Niagara Falls. I assume that anyone mapping them linked was doing so to make a stronger R district. As it is, I ended up with an R+5 including Niagara Falls, and R+6 for the 200 K remainder of Erie so it's not that bad for the GOP.

I was thinking more in terms of a CA style mapping rather than a MI style map which many argue isn't that fair. As such partisan considersations were completely irrelevant and my primary concern was whether Niagara Falls had a better justification for being in an urban seat with Buffalo, then a bunch of rural Erie precincts.

Actually the MI rules worked very well in the 1980 and 90 remaps. They were so well-regarded that MI codified them. However they didn't put in any tests for partisan bias, since the issue hadn't occurred. When a single party had control the lack of a cross check allowed the rules to be bent to partisan advantage.

Certainly one could make a CA style judgement that NF should be with Buffalo and then draw a map accordingly. It will strengthen the adjacent GOP districts and make the area less competitive. I think that those type of judgement calls can lead to problems as well as seen in AZ this year.

So basically a gerrymander that doesn't look like a gerrymander. Even with the lipstick, the pig is still a pig. In my opinion, a fair map isn't what machine hack Repub and machine hack dem in a back room in Albany agree to scratch onto a map with their crayons. Therefore I don't think we can rely on bipartisan agreements to achieve the desired results. You can only do so much to leesh a legislature with standards, as MI proves and in FL is proving this time. Independent Non-Partisan Redistricting>Legislaitive Redistricting.

Whether it is your map or the one Torie did (if I recall it had a Buffalo seat then a Niagara Co. to PA seat surronding it), the question one has to ask is that "is it fair to put Niagara Falls, an urban area, into a district where it will be swamped by rural voters in a belt from Lake Ontario to PA, or place it into a district that would share similar urban rust belt issues, as it would with the city of Buffalo.

The MI standards came from the special master (Bernie Apol) appointed in the 80s, so they weren't the work of a bipartisan agreement. The bipartisan agreement was to codify the standards in 1999, thinking that they would tie the hands of whichever party might control the map in 2001. They failed to anticipate how far their geographic standards could be twisted. I would have no problem handing the MI standards to an independent commission, since that is essentially how Apol did his work. I just think that independent commissions can benefit from precise standards that are set before they begin mapping.

Yes, Torie wrapped Niagara around Buffalo and I wrapped it around Rochester. I looked at the former and found a very nice combination of counties with minimal deviation, but I wasn't wild about the connector along the eastern edge of Erie. Since I could wrap Rochester with whole counties and minimal deviation I went that way, but either path is a valid solution.

Niagara county didn't even give 50% to Obama. There are plenty of other upstate counties that have a strong Dem city in otherwise GOP turf. If Niagara should be split to link NF because of its interest, why not similar connections splitting counties throughout upstate?

I wasn't saying that it was the result of a bipartisan agreement. I said that it such relies on a bipartisan agreements to produce "fair" results, and even when such is the case, my point is I don't really trust say Joe Bruno and Sheldon Silver in 2001 to produce a reasonably "fair" result. Certainly a commission would have strict standards, that is the only way such a commission would work. My point is, they are more likely to do a better job than a legislative body.

I merely mentioned the differences in your maps in passing. Both are essentially the same with regards to this issue.

I am not really concerned with what gave Obama 50% versus 70% or whatever here. The issue regards a CA style remap and they don't consider such variables, unless I am mistaken.

The difference between Niagara and say Utica is this. Buffalo is considerably short of a district's population, as a city. Any such remap, as I am asking about, would start the district by including all of Buffalo, since there is no reason to split it other than political considerations of yore. Niagara Falls is right there, has many similarities and if avoiding county splits isn't that big of a concern when other more pressing issues occur, it stands to reason that putting it in with Buffalo would be a logical move should the local officials and community meetings reveal such a desire as being prevalent.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ah, machine states!


Promoting establishment power at the espense of the people, on a bipartisan basis, for 200 years.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All of these maps are terrible, in my opinion.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Both the earmuffs and Higgin's distict are ridiculous when you can draw districts entirely within Monroe and Erie counties. I hope they don't go with a least change map. The loss of two seats should preclude that entirely.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rationale for my proposal:

1. Buff/Roch are similar cities and combined in one district keep from overpowering the suburban/rural portions of western NYS.
2. Making that a solid D allows all the surrounding seats to be highly competitive.  Same with combining D areas into the Albany seat.
3. Where is it written in stone that St Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton be in the same district?
4. I have no care or regard for incumbents' locations.  One doesn't have to live in a district to run in it
5. Racial stats are irrelevant.  Aside from Grimm and Turner, every other seat in NYC will elect a far left liberal Democrat who will vote the same way no matter what race they are.  To me they aren't whites, blacks, hispanics.  They're Democrats.

The rules do care about that, though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The most acceptable map so far. I very much like that they ended both of the partisan gimmicks in Western NY (Earmuffs and Buffalo split) and they restored Chautauqua to the Southern Tier seat like it has been for decades prior (maybe even a century, I now it was in the 1940's, though there were two Southern Tier seats at that point with the region divided east and west).

I like what they did with Hotchul seat.

They made Buerkle's seat more of a Syracuse metro seat with all of Cayuga. It would have been even better to have found a way to pull it out of all or part of Wayne and give it either Cortland or Seneca. I tried experimenting with that the other day and it messed up my preffered Southern Tier seat. So I guess I approve.

They way they split up the Hincheymander is okay. I tried to make a non gerrymander seat out of the same basic area but the numbers and the boundaries just wouldn't come out right. And contributed to my usuall problem when I draw NY of trying to do too many things at once.

Then you get downstate...

I agree that the Senate GOP should pass a map containing a Jewish dominated South Brooklyn seat even if it is just to score points in the Senate special. That is the one big fail on this court map.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

The product of serving in a gerry in the 2000's is that she is less capable of performing so well in a not gerry'd seat. Think of Lungren's diminishing returns as an extreme example of a candidate who is less and less effective at wining voters. It does happen as you can see. And putting a candidate in a safe seat for 10 years and letting her adapt, then taking it form her, is another way of producing such a transformation of candidate quality.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

not necessarily true. She represented a district entirely within Monroe county in the 1990s. Even in 1994, she still got a solid 56 percent.

The product of serving in a gerry in the 2000's is that she is less capable of performing so well in a not gerry'd seat. Think of Lungren's diminishing returns as an extreme example of a candidate who is less and less effective at wining voters. It does happen as you can see. And putting a candidate in a safe seat for 10 years and letting her adapt, then taking it form her, is another way of producing such a transformation of candidate quality.

I don't know if Lungren is a good example. Maybe Dick Lehman who represented a district that connected the inner city areas from Stockton and Fresno via the Sierras in the 80s would be a better example.

People are more apt to know a current congressman then someone from the 1980's.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Considering the margin, any such infighting was likely a critical factor.

Between Israel's skill as a candidate and the amount of changes made, they did enough to put it beyond reach. Four was within reach with the right candidate in the right year because of McCarthy.

I don't really concern myself with King's political future.