From a map drawing aesthetics perspective, it should be Engel in NY-17. His district is the ugliest (other than Velasquez' NY-12, which won't be axed due to racial reasons). There's no reason at all why the Bronx should share a district with Rockland County.
Obviously, the other dead district is going to have to come from Upstate. NY-23 is probably most vulnerable to being carved up due to likely population loss and the sheer size of it.
It'd take a special election and a happier Grisanti to get a better Senate for those lines.
NY23 is a hard one to handle since I think every district bordering NY23 is now Republican and that Democratic vote from Owens base would make him formidable. Especially since the votes don't exist to totally carve the district.
Wonder how the dynamic would change if Slaughter retired, her district got distributed. How much would more Rochester wound one of the newer Republicans? Plus Chris Lee lives in Erie so some of that county will not be in Higgins district.
I don't think any of the upstate freshman Republicans are necessarily in a good spot right now because I don't recall any of them having elected state government experience and the map is probably either a compromise or court-drawn
