US House Redistricting: New York

[Dgov]

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Slaughter a Rochester-Syracuse district?  It makes her district much safer, and opens up some of the more Republican parts of the Rochester area to help buffer NY-25 and NY-24.

[Dgov]

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Slaughter a Rochester-Syracuse district?  It makes her district much safer, and opens up some of the more Republican parts of the Rochester area to help buffer NY-25 and NY-24.

I don't think there are any  Republicans in the Rochester area that are still in Slaughters district. Her current district is basically Rochester itself, and a strip along Lake Ontario to Niagara Falls. When they split LaFalce's Niagara based CD up, they wanted to keep the most Dem areas like Niagara Falls out of the new 26th which was to be held by Tom "Give me a district that will allow me to vote like a Southern Conservative" Reynolds.  


Do we really think that the Democrats in the Assembly who are mostly from NYC and downstate are going to give a rats ass about Syracuse. In the old days, when the GOP dominated both houses of the state legislature, they used to screw with the downstate area quite a lot. Now, I do beleive the city is represented by Republicans in the State Senate, which could add an interesting dynamic to things.


And keep in mind that Syracuse was split in two in the 1970s. Rochester was split between Horton and Conable/Slaughter untill the 1991. And Erie County has been split many ways over the decades. This will be the first time in many decades, that Buffalo will likely have one district that it shares with Niagara Falls. There is nothing new about splitting upstate cities.

That was in response to the Idea above to just give Slaughter basically all of Monroe county, which has plenty of republican-leaning areas in it.

[Dgov]

I doubt McCarthy would be happy with taking in the Republican parts of southern Brooklyn. Also, the Rockaways are needed to up NY-06's black population.

Do you think it's plausible for NY-13, NY-8, NY-10, and NY-11 to take up that half of NY-9?

I think NY-10 and NY-11 could do it all by themselves, with NY-10 pulling out of Park Slope, etc. and giving it over to NY-8 (which would loop back around NY-12 through Windsor Terrace).

You could also do it much easier by having the 8th take most of North Staten Island (Which is Solid D Anyway), and letting NY-13 take most of the Rep. Parts.  The problem with the 10th and 11th is that they're VRA-Black districts, meaning they can't pick up alot of the heavily white 9th.  You can probably put the Queens part in NY-4 or 5 if necessary as well.

Do you guys think Grimm would want a bunch of Hasidic Jews in his district?  They're very Republican, but might present a primary challenge for him later on.

[Dgov]

Why would Democrats ever agree to a map that gives Republicans another seat in New York City?

Well, a Jewish Democrat could hold that 7th (which can be brought down closer to 50/50 if necessary), and it weakens the Staten-Island district enough to where Grimm wouldn't have won it in 2010.

In other words it's a good "fair" map if the Democrats want to bet on winning both.  Other than that however, it's probably moot.

[Dgov]

Uh in exchange for two districts the Democrats "might" win Rangel's super-safe seat is lost. Even if the Democrats want to get rid of Rangel he can be easily replaced with another Democrat.

Rangel's District is the new Hispanic-majority one, Weiner's district is the one that gets more Marginal.