US House Redistricting: New York

[DrScholl]

I assume that most of the Hispanics that also identify as black are in the Bronx, as you have large blocs of mixed Black-Hispanic precincts there.

[DrScholl]

Lowey's new seat is D+4, which is out of reach for an Republican except in an open seat, 2010, poor Democratic opponent situation and even with all that, it's still a stretch.

[DrScholl]

Brooks margin as county executive fell in 2011, while she still won comfortably, it was reduced. Now, those are low turnout elections, where voters vote different based on local issues and issues that don't translate above that local level. She'll most likely do as well as Kay Barnes did in MO-6, a popular local official doing poorly in a congressional race. Republicans didn't unseat any Democratic incumbents in D+6 seats in 2010, it's hard to see how they do so in a presidential year.