US House Redistricting: New York

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Is this the decade they finally chop Staten Island in half?

You can turn the 13th into a 60% McCain district by ditching the areas along Northern Staten Island to the 8th and picking up all the bloodred territory in Queens.

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My map.

Slim chance of this happening I think, but I kind of like it because it is kind of clean.:

Red CD-4 (McCarthy) - This district barely goes into Queens.

Slate Green CD-6 (Meeks) - Majority AA district located in Queens.

Grey CD-7 (Ackerman, Crowley, Weiner) - Majority white district in Queens meant for Crowley, who I believe is a lot better liked than the other 2.

Purple CD-8 (Nadler) - Staten Island, South Brooklyn, Wall Street. He's probably not going to like it though.

Light Blue CD-9 (open) - New majority Hispanic district located in Queens/Bronx.

Pink CD-10 (Towns) - Majority AA district located in Brooklyn/Queens.

Lime Green CD-11 (Clarke) - Majority AA district located in Brooklyn.

Blue CD-12 (Velasqeuz) - Majority Hispanic district located in Brooklyn/Manhattan/Queens

Peach CD-13 (Grimm) - All the Republicans go here. 63% McCain.

Gold CD-14 (Maloney) - Midtown Manhattan district.

Orange CD-15 (Rangel) - Harlem based Manhattan district.

Bright Green CD-16 (Serrano) - Majority Hispanic district in the Bronx.

Dark Purple CD-17 (Engel) - The crossover district that goes into Westchester, although not too much. Most population is located in the Bronx. 31% White, 34% AA.


The 5th gets obliterated.

Beyond that, upstate, I gave safe districts to Lee and Reed. Hanna and Gibson were merged, while Buerkle got a torrid Syracuse to Ithaca district. I call that one the college towns. Hayworth gets an ugly gerryandered 53% McCain mess that dips into Yonkers. Bill Owens gets about what he has. Overall, upstate ends up being 6-5-1, with the 1 being Owens's 23rd.

Long Island, not much to say. Find all the Republican areas and give them to Peter King.

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If there is a compromise pro-incumbent gerrymander, I would imagine that the losses would be an upstate R and a downstate D. Any guesses as to who would be out of a seat in those cases?

I fully expect the downstate D to be Ackerman.  It could be Crowley or Maloney, but Crowley is party boss and Maloney is just younger.  Ackerman is probably close to retiring anyway.

Looking upstate - it could really be anyone.  Probably depends on who the establishment likes least.

Upstate, it really makes sense for the GOP to axe Buerkle and that Dem leaning district. PVI of D+3.

It seems like there's no point in the Slaughter earmuffs anymore. You can just expand Higgins into the western earmuff of Slaughter's district instead.

Instead you get the new upgraded 2010 earmuffs that goes to from Rochester to Syracuse. Obama 67% or so.

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Instead you get the new upgraded 2010 earmuffs that goes to from Rochester to Syracuse. Obama 67% or so.

Why would Democrats agree to that? In 2002, you had the excuse of a Republican governor and the influence of the White House, and the district being eliminated downstate was Republican. This time, the Democrats have a stronger hand everywhere and are going to lose a seat downstate. I don't see why they'd agree to a Pennsymander-type Democratic district upstate.

I don't know if they would go for that.

The problem is giving Syracuse to Owens is just asking for him to be primaried. Of course, its possible nobody cares about him.

Syracuse does have to be given to a Democrat, though. I see only 2 possibilities.

To elaborate, right now, New York has 8 Republicans. Chopping it down to 7 means upstate has to go 6-5, and carving 5 Republican seats in upstate NY is rather tricky and does require some gerrymandering, imo.

If the Democrats can force upstate to go 7-4 (which is in essence a 2 Republican loss), you do get cleaner lines. I can see how Reed, Lee, and Gibson survive. Hayworth needs some rough lines, but you can chop together a McCain district there. I think the Democrats are going to want to eliminate both Buerkle and Hanna while the GOP is going to want to give Hanna some place he can win.

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The problem is giving Syracuse to Owens is just asking for him to be primaried. Of course, its possible nobody cares about him.

Owens can just move left like Gillibrand did. She went from the Blue Dogs to like the third or so most liberal member of the Senate.

I guess he could, but Gillibrand didn't have to run in a primary. She was appointed.

Owens might ask for a 50/50 rural seat like he has now. In which case the map is still 6-5 (in terms of PVI) but with the Democrats holding 1 of the 5 Republican seats until Doug Hoffman stops running.


That outcome probably works better for the Democrats, since its nets them 7 total upstate seats (Higgins, Slaughter, somenewdemfromSyracuse, Tonko, Hinchey, Lowery, Owens)

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Verily, that deal makes a lot of sense to me. I think I would sign off on that as a Pubbie.

That map actually looks much, much nicer than connecting the northern counties on the Canada Border with the Syracuse region.

I think thats about the best the Pubbies can do that looks somewhat clean.

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That's a bit silly to assume Owens would have a primary and would want a more Republican district.  It's almost always easier for an incumbent to win a primary than a general election (with some recent exceptions like Murkowski).  What, six House Democrats in New York lost their general election contests in 2010?  How many lost primaries?

He voted for health care reform and is in no way despised by liberals.

You might be right. I thought his record was more conservative than it actually is, which goes to show that Doug Hoffman is an idiot, and that he's done a really good job with his fake moderate rhetoric.

I believe that Andrew Cuomo would want clean districts, although Shelly Silver is probably going to roll him on this issue and a lot of others.

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CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55%
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54%
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54%
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60%

The other point to think of is Long Island.

McCarthy's and King's district pretty much draw themselves in this manner. The question I see is whether Israel will want something more than 54% here.



I don't think Long Island really trended towards the Democrats all that much from 2000 to 2008.

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That is one ugly map of LI.   I like how it just magically  jumps across Reynolds channel and scoops up the black/Hispanic area of Long Beach. It  then snakes around to bring in what looks like Elmont, W Valley Stream and Inwood.  Wonderful gerrymander.

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

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it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties. 

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

From what I've read, traditionally, only 1 district crosses from Long Island into New York City. Since Long Island has about 3.9 districts worth of population, you can't drown any of the 4 LI districts into NYC without crossing a second one over.

More importantly, Peter King is the Homeland Security chairman and the most powerful House member New York has now. If you try to stick him with enough of Queens to matter he'll probably run against Steve Israel, and nobody wants that.

As it stands, CD-1 is about perfectly populated. If the Democrats are going to ram through a 7-4 upstate map, they're going to have to throw Skelos a bone somewhere if they want to make this easy for themselves.

Of course, perhaps they don't.

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it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties.  

Thing is, it's not really a screw-over since they're eliminating a D district on Long Island at the same time. The only map that would really be a screw over of the LI Republicans would be one that connected all of Nassau to Queens and eliminated King instead of Ackerman.

Fair enough points, we'll see, but anything that strengthens Bishop could be a tough pill for them to swallow after the closeness of 2010.  

Also: the Senate Republicans are very region-obsessed I've noticed lately, complaining how the Democratic Party is controlled by NYC.  Would they approve a plan that had two districts eliminated [mostly] outside of NYC?  

Dean Skelos won't be in control, but it would seem that any redistricting plan would need to avoid any perceived insults.

I think if you give the Republicans 6 districts (4 upstate, Staten Island, 1 Long Island), with the chance of winning a 7th (either a 5th upstate or CD-1 on Long Island), both sides can go with that.

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Yes, throwing Skelos a bone is eliminating Ackerman. There is no reason ("tradition" is not one) why multiple districts could not cross into Queens. And no reason why Israel's seat could not also go into Queens (alternatively, no reason to think that King would defeat Israel--he wouldn't in a neutral seat).

Shrug, I'd be really shocked if they do anything like that with the regional interests involved. We shall see.

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Well, take my districts. The white vote in the West Brooklyn district must have broken *roughly* even, perhaps tilted Democrat, and the same goes for the area in with the Staten district and presumably for the white territory marooned on the western end of the southern Black district.
And non-Hasidic whites in Williamsburg vote roughly like their counterparts in Manhattan.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/county/#NYH09p1


Brooklyn
9:53 a.m. EST, Nov 11, 2010
Weiner
(Incumbent)
14,599
52%
Turner
13,395
48%
100% of precincts reporting
Queens
9:53 a.m. EST, Nov 11, 2010
Weiner
(Incumbent)
32,405
62%
Turner
19,935
38%
100% of precincts reporting




That's 2010, obviously. I wonder how that district would do in an open seat situation.

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It always seemed really easy to crunch the 9th district compared to any of the others.

I would love to see the GOP win a special there, though. They'll need a Jewish Republican for sure.

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I would love to see the GOP win a special there, though. They'll need a Jewish Republican for sure.

I *would* say this, but I'm skeptical that the district would elect a Republican. Jewish Democratic voters in the New York area were unusually warm to Saddam's-ass-kicking Bush in the post-9/11 presidential election and didn't connect well with Obama in 2008. But they'll have no trouble supporting a local Democrat for Congress by large margins. Especially with Medicare on the table.

Weiner would be a moron to outright resign over this.

Really depends on whether he's lying about his crotch or not I suppose.

A Republican would really need to make a big deal about Israel 1967 and all that and really clean house in the Brooklyn section to have a chance. The Orthodox Jews seem to wildly swing in mass, though, which probably makes it easier.

I believe even Weiner lost the Brooklyn section last year but of course won the Queens section easily.

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Weiner won Brooklyn 52-48 and Queens 65-35 last year.

Thanks. Close, but not quite. I guess in the end New York is probably more tolerant of this crap than most areas. Rudy had some shady incidents after all.

He probably just needs to stop digging his own grave.

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NYC glory.





Fuschia: Long Island district for King. 49.8% McCain

Red: Long Island/Queens district for some Democrat. 56.9% Obama

Slate Green: Queens/Long Island district for Meeks. 51.0% black, 85.2% Obama

Grey: Brooklyn/Queens district for some Jewish Republican. 54.5% McCain

Peach: Staten Island/Brooklyn district for Grimm: 50.0% McCain

Pink: Brooklyn district for Towns: 50.3% Black, 90.2% Obama

Pale green: Brooklyn district for Clarke: 50.7% black, 92.0% Obama

Purple: Manhattan district for Nadler: 82.2% Obama

Cyan: Manhattan district for Maloney: 88.5% Obama

Orange: Bronx/Manhattan district for Serrano: 61.8% Hispanic, 90.2% Obama

Sky Blue: Queens/Brooklyn district for Velazquez: 52.8% Hispanic, 83.2% Obama

Yellow: Queens district for Crowley. 71.9% Obama

Puke: Bronx district for some Hispanic Democrat. 48.3% Hispanic, 89.5% Obama

Bright Green: Westchester/Queens leftovers for Engel.




No Rangel, no Weiner. 6 districts don't cross borough lines at all. New Hispanic district.

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I think it's just an academic exercise.

BTW I'm just tweaking my final map now, but why was there such controversy over shoring up Hochul? It's quite easy with just the northern fourth of Buffalo with Higgins taking the rest. Her seat would basically be the one represented by John LaFalce for so long with the bit of Buffalo added. Both Buffalo seats are about 54% Obama, which has been fine for Higgins so far and should be fine for Hochul as long as she isn't stupid (which she hasn't been to even win that seat to begin with.)

Yeah, that was just an exercise.


What you suggest is definitely doable and probably likely. Whether it holds for a decade or not is another issue. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

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Why would Democrats ever agree to a map that gives Republicans another seat in New York City?

Well, a Jewish Democrat could hold that 7th (which can be brought down closer to 50/50 if necessary), and it weakens the Staten-Island district enough to where Grimm wouldn't have won it in 2010.

In other words it's a good "fair" map if the Democrats want to bet on winning both.  Other than that however, it's probably moot.

Nah, its not a fair map at all. It's just a GOP map to accomplish numerous objectives. The grey district is an obvious and blatant gerrymander. The rest of the districts are fairly clean of course; I tried to give each borough 2 districts and end the Manhattan over representation. Queens is of course sliced and diced a bit due to its location.

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Rangel's district isn't abolished in that map at all. It just becomes unequivocally a Black-influence Hispanic-majority seat. Which is the way it's headed anyhow - and which was never an issue for Rangel.

It would depend on whether Serrano would slide over to the neighboring Bronx district. But he might want to take the orange district and leave the puke Bronx district for, say, his son.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/APebf21da02e004c39b6246aea765a06f8.html

NEW YORK — The diverse congressional district that Anthony Weiner vacated in the midst of a sexting scandal has become the latest battleground for a Latino organization that is laboring to increase the political clout of Hispanics in Congress.

LatinoJustice PRLDEF, which is involved in redistricting fights in 10 jurisdictions throughout the Northeast and in Florida, is proposing that New York's 9th Congressional District be dissolved as the nation's political map is redrawn to reflect population shifts based on new census data. But such a proposal could irk Democratic leaders and even residents of Weiner's former district themselves.


I guess they figure that Velazquez's 12th is the only other target if the 9th survives.

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My dream NYC map.




Red: Long Island district for McCarthy
Yellow: Queens/Bronx district for Crowley
Slate Green: Queens district for Meeks
Aqua Green: Downtown/Midtown district for Nadler
Bright Blue: Brooklyn/Queens district for Turner
Pink: Brooklyn district for Towns
Lime Green: Brooklyn district for Clarke
Pale Blue: Queens/Brooklyn district for Velazquez
Peach: Staten Island district for Grimm
Gold: collection of liberal whites for Maloney
Orange: Bronx/Manhattan district for Rangel or primary
Bright Green: Bronx district for Serrano

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Well, it maintains 50% black districts in Brooklyn (10, 11), 47% black district in Queens (6), and the 3 Hispanic districts (12, 15, 16).

Swapping precincts between 4 and 6 doesn't change much.  So, more or less

My goal was to equalize districts across the boroughs, and to cut down on borough crossings. Manhattan now has 3 districts for 2 districts worth of population which comes at the expense of the other boroughs.

In my plan Brooklyn gets 3 districts, Queens gets 3 districts, Staten Island gets its 1, Manhattan gets 2.5, and the Bronx gets 1.5, based on the dominant source of population of each district.

I don't like the 14th crossing 3 boroughs but I think there's a theme to that at least.

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Well, 3 and 4 are merely gerrymandered to put all the Republicans in Peter King's district. And the 9th is very carefully selected into Queens to pluck out Republicans as well; push it anywhere else and you start adding 100k 80% Obama voters. I could probably add Sunset Park and be ok...but Velazquez I think lives there. Hence the awful shape of the 12th.

I shoved Maloney up to Columbia and the other university up there, and general white dominated precincts...could probably give it to Nadler. But I didn't think Nadler should extend from Battery Park all the way to Uptown. I'm not convinced that Greenpoint fits here well, but I suppose it fits nowhere; Astoria does though as it seems is becoming a cheaper extension of the Upper East Side.


Rangel has already issued the 'over my dead body' proclamation on this. He's demanding they keep that district in Manhattan and push it down the Upper West Side...basically taking Maloney's territory both from the north, and the south (if they condense Nadler like this).


Crowley should be thrilled as I gave him a white dominated district. I left the 4 core VRA districts (Meeks, Towns, Clarke, Serrano) exactly the same too.

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Well, 3 and 4 are merely gerrymandered to put all the Republicans in Peter King's district.

Yes, yes, I figured that much.

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100k of them? Are you sure? Just how Republican is your version?

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That is what I would do.

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Crowley doesn't care whether he gets Whites or Hispanics, as long as it's not, say, 60% or whatever of them. Crowley decides who Queens Democrats get to vote for.

Is Velasquez going to be happy with a 50% Hispanic CD?  Is Meeks going to be happy with 47% black? 

Why the hell shouldn't she? That's more than she's ever had, and she's safe as houses. (Now, whether that stops a court... different story. You can always point to Rangel's and Crowley's district not electing any Hispanics on similar shares.) And Meeks' district is 50% Black that way. As you know. And again, he too is safe as houses.

Here is brooklyn by partisan breakdown.



Now, I presume the Staten Island District gets first pickings, so it takes Bay Ridge and some of Bensonhurst. Then I removed all the nonminorities (ie Republicans) from districts 8, 10, 11, and gave them to 9.





That's 580k people, at 58% McCain, leaving about 140k to go. Where else can you route that district? You can't add the Brooklyn blacks to the north.