US House Redistricting: Texas

[krazen1211]

Al Green won't defeat Sheila in that CD-18, though I see how you're drawing him in, but he'll be toast.  Gene Green's residence would now be in CD-9, so CD-29 would be very open.  A lot of your proposed CD-29 is very idiosyncratic territory - you could get any type of race in control there, don't let the Hispanic numbers fool you.

You also won't like the partisan numbers on your proposed CD-7.  I also wonder on the partisan numbers of CD-9 and CD-29, they'll be Democratic enough, though.

Hmm, I approximated that CD-7 at 56% McCain or so; its a 59.8% Anglo district. The precincts are pretty carefully chosen. It might be a problem a few years from now, though.

CD-22 was actually my real concern given the massive shifts in Fort Bend.

[Sam Spade]

Al Green won't defeat Sheila in that CD-18, though I see how you're drawing him in, but he'll be toast.  Gene Green's residence would now be in CD-9, so CD-29 would be very open.  A lot of your proposed CD-29 is very idiosyncratic territory - you could get any type of race in control there, don't let the Hispanic numbers fool you.

You also won't like the partisan numbers on your proposed CD-7.  I also wonder on the partisan numbers of CD-9 and CD-29, they'll be Democratic enough, though.

Hmm, I approximated that CD-7 at 56% McCain or so; its a 59.8% Anglo district. The precincts are pretty carefully chosen. It might be a problem a few years from now, though.

CD-22 was actually my real concern given the massive shifts in Fort Bend.

The old Culberson CD was 58% McCain, so if that's the case, you've given him a weaker CD.

[Dgov]

Al Green won't defeat Sheila in that CD-18, though I see how you're drawing him in, but he'll be toast.  Gene Green's residence would now be in CD-9, so CD-29 would be very open.  A lot of your proposed CD-29 is very idiosyncratic territory - you could get any type of race in control there, don't let the Hispanic numbers fool you.

You also won't like the partisan numbers on your proposed CD-7.  I also wonder on the partisan numbers of CD-9 and CD-29, they'll be Democratic enough, though.

Hmm, I approximated that CD-7 at 56% McCain or so; its a 59.8% Anglo district. The precincts are pretty carefully chosen. It might be a problem a few years from now, though.

CD-22 was actually my real concern given the massive shifts in Fort Bend.

You're right, it is at about 56% McCain from what I can tell trying to replicate it.   However, it begs the question why you added all the Democrat-leaning territory in the western part of the district and gave the heavily-republican parts to the 8th?  I assume that district doesn't need any help.  Rearrange some lines around there and give some of the red/blue territory to  the 7th, and you can make it at least 59% McCain.

Also, your CD-22 is fine, it's almost 60% McCain.

[krazen1211]

You're right, it is at about 56% McCain from what I can tell trying to replicate it.   However, it begs the question why you added all the Democrat-leaning territory in the western part of the district and gave the heavily-republican parts to the 8th?  I assume that district doesn't need any help.  Rearrange some lines around there and give some of the red/blue territory to  the 7th, and you can make it at least 59% McCain.

Also, your CD-22 is fine, it's almost 60% McCain.

I actually mapped it out; that Woodlands district was close to 70. Thanks, made some swaps. Both districts should be at or above 60 now. I put those Democratic areas in Flores's district since he dropped Waco up north.

[Brittain33]

I think TX-7 could be safe Republican even with a lower McCain number, much like Torie's district in California. Obama won many high-income voters over McCain-Palin in 2008 that are simply not going to vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress and may not vote for Obama again in 2012.

[Sam Spade]

I think TX-7 could be safe Republican even with a lower McCain number, much like Torie's district in California. Obama won many high-income voters over McCain-Palin in 2008 that are simply not going to vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress and may not vote for Obama again in 2012.

You're probably right, of course, but there's no reason not to play it safe since the numbers can be made stronger without much hurt otherwise.

[freepcrusher]

what's with Pete Sessions district losing 11,000 people. I'm guessing the district is going to pick up parts of Garland from CD 3.

[Dgov]

what's with Pete Sessions district losing 11,000 people. I'm guessing the district is going to pick up parts of Garland from CD 3.

Probably not--those precincts don't have the kind of numbers that he needs to get a safe district.  It'll probably shoot north towards Frisco and some of the other North-Dallas suburbs in the 4th and 26th that can be safely removed.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wait, what is this "touch-pointed"? That doesn't make sense. Mathematically, you shouldn't be able to skip over the center point like that - if you could, then any noncontiguous district with two parts at opposite ends of a state could be made "contiguous" by an infinitely narrow point-wide connection with a Dedekind cut on either side.

[krazen1211]

Wait, what is this "touch-pointed"? That doesn't make sense. Mathematically, you shouldn't be able to skip over the center point like that - if you could, then any noncontiguous district with two parts at opposite ends of a state could be made "contiguous" by an infinitely narrow point-wide connection with a Dedekind cut on either side.

Imagine Utah and New Mexico being in 1 district, and Arizona/Colorado being in a 2nd district.

It's already used in several places. NC-13 for example.

[jimrtex]

Wait, what is this "touch-pointed"? That doesn't make sense. Mathematically, you shouldn't be able to skip over the center point like that - if you could, then any noncontiguous district with two parts at opposite ends of a state could be made "contiguous" by an infinitely narrow point-wide connection with a Dedekind cut on either side.

I think you are going to get different interpretation of whether this is legal in different states,  Just because it happened in North Carolina doesn't mean that it will work in Texas.

If you wanted to maintain literal contiguity you can start out with 36 concentric districts that are a millimeter thick around the outside perimeter of the state.   Pick out a set of discontiguous areas that are to comprise the outermost district.  Connect these with narrow channels 72 millimeters wide that run down the center of roads etc  Run the bundles of districts down the left side if the channel.  When you get to one of the areas that have people that will be in the district, run the bundle around the outside, and then come back down the right side the channel.  Repeat the same for each other district.

[Brittain33]

It's already used in several places. NC-13 for example.

I'm struggling to think of an example other than that one in use currently.

[krazen1211]

It's already used in several places. NC-13 for example.

I'm struggling to think of an example other than that one in use currently.

You might be right at the Congressional level. I know for a fact that George Democrats used it in 2001 at the state legislative level.

Truthfully the only reason to do it is to achieve a different racial balance in CD-9.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yeah, you're right about NC-13 and NC-6 in Greensboro - never noticed that before.

Still, already done doesn't mean legal; it just means never challenged on that basis, and I still maintain it ought not to be legal. Jimrtex's suggestions with millimeters are legalistic but coherent; with these X's, on the other hand, the district's width must be literally just a point, because any larger surface area at all would cut off the other district. And if you allow districts to have sections that don't extend at all in two dimensions then there is effectively no requirement of contiguity at all.

[krazen1211]

Something that I never thought about:

Is it possible to eliminate Gene Green's seat?




The yellow and blue are 81/85% Obama dem packs. The grey district is Culbertson's and 58% McCain; the purple is a newly created 60% McCain district. The green incomplete district starts at Humble (Ted Poe's home) and would head towards Port Arthur.

The grey-green seat in eastern Harris is the new Gene Green seat, and is 60% Hispanic, 55% McCain per the old data. It is likely much more hispanic with the new data.

[minionofmidas]

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

[Dgov]

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

He means flip it to a Republican seat.

And yes it is possible, but you'd probably run into a VRA challenge as a result.  By definition a district like that would have to basically contain a bunch of uber-Republican whites to out-vote the Hispanic majority, which I don't think is allowed.  Though you can certainly cut out the Black-heavy parts of the current district to get it down to basically swing while still Highly Hispanic.

You can actually do the same thing with the 27th and 23rd as well (a Laredo-Odessa/Midland District is like 67% Hispanic and 60% McCain), and possibly also with the 28th and the San Antonio suburbs.

[Bacon King]

It's already used in several places. NC-13 for example.

I'm struggling to think of an example other than that one in use currently.

GA-08 and GA-11 also had point contiguity before the Republicans did the mid-decade redistricting in 2005.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah right, sorry. Overlooked that McCain percentage somehow.

[krazen1211]

He means flip it to a Republican seat.

And yes it is possible, but you'd probably run into a VRA challenge as a result.  By definition a district like that would have to basically contain a bunch of uber-Republican whites to out-vote the Hispanic majority, which I don't think is allowed.  Though you can certainly cut out the Black-heavy parts of the current district to get it down to basically swing while still Highly Hispanic.

You can actually do the same thing with the 27th and 23rd as well (a Laredo-Odessa/Midland District is like 67% Hispanic and 60% McCain), and possibly also with the 28th and the San Antonio suburbs.

That would be the general idea, yeah. The existing 15, 28 already contain a Hispanic majority in the south with some uber-Republican whites in the northern rural counties.

That map was drawn with the old census data, though, so the racial percentages are off. I'd expect it to be ~65% Hispanic now, although in a very low turnout area.

[nclib]

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

He means flip it to a Republican seat.

And yes it is possible, but you'd probably run into a VRA challenge as a result.  By definition a district like that would have to basically contain a bunch of uber-Republican whites to out-vote the Hispanic majority, which I don't think is allowed.  Though you can certainly cut out the Black-heavy parts of the current district to get it down to basically swing while still Highly Hispanic.

You can actually do the same thing with the 27th and 23rd as well (a Laredo-Odessa/Midland District is like 67% Hispanic and 60% McCain), and possibly also with the 28th and the San Antonio suburbs.

Yeah, it sounds easy to draw a couple Hispanic majority McCain CD's in Texas involving rural areas and not too much of the border. Is this mainly due to plenty of Hispanics not being citizens (or not turning out) or do some of these areas have more GOP Hispanic support?

[Sam Spade]

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

He means flip it to a Republican seat.

And yes it is possible, but you'd probably run into a VRA challenge as a result.  By definition a district like that would have to basically contain a bunch of uber-Republican whites to out-vote the Hispanic majority, which I don't think is allowed.  Though you can certainly cut out the Black-heavy parts of the current district to get it down to basically swing while still Highly Hispanic.

You can actually do the same thing with the 27th and 23rd as well (a Laredo-Odessa/Midland District is like 67% Hispanic and 60% McCain), and possibly also with the 28th and the San Antonio suburbs.

Yeah, it sounds easy to draw a couple Hispanic majority McCain CD's in Texas involving rural areas and not too much of the border. Is this mainly due to plenty of Hispanics not being citizens (or not turning out) or do some of these areas have more GOP Hispanic support?

It's a bit of both.  I've been recently going through the barrio precincts in San Antonio, and turnout in 2008 in most of these was around 20%-25% of VAP, at best.  Seriously.  Granted, there's a high percentage of non-citizens, but still...

Also, in the suburbs, you get plenty of middle-upper income areas which are much more likely to have Hispanics voting Republican.

[Dgov]

Yeah, it sounds easy to draw a couple Hispanic majority McCain CD's in Texas involving rural areas and not too much of the border. Is this mainly due to plenty of Hispanics not being citizens (or not turning out) or do some of these areas have more GOP Hispanic support?

It depends on where you're talking about.  West Texas has plenty of GOP-voting Hispanics, (the current TX-11 is almost 40% Hispanic, and it was George Bush's best District in the country), and they certainly exist in the rest of the state--they're just spread-in with the white voters so they're harder to detect.  The more concentrated Hispanics are in one place, the more Democrat they tend to be (since such areas are generally urban and poor).

So generally speaking, drawing McCain-Hispanic districts involves a combination of Hispanic-majority areas and precincts that Vote Democrat in depressed numbers and White-majority but still-substantially Hispanic Republican precincts to out-vote them.

In the example i gave above, you combine about 350,000 People in the Laredo and Eagle Pass areas that are like 95% Hispanic and 70% Democrat with about 350,000 People in the Odessa and Midland Areas that are like 35% Hispanic and 80% Republican (and who vote more) to get a district that is 65% Hispanic but also solidly Republican.

You can also do this with the Gulf Coast areas (which are Solidly Republican with a substantial Hispanic Population) and South Texas to give Farenthold a solid R district that's Hispanic-majority.

However in the large cities this breaks down a bit--particularly because you start getting White Liberals and Blacks in the mix, both of which drag down the Hispanic percentage and the McCain percentage, so it becomes a more ugly fine-picking of precincts.  It's generally still possible to get 55% McCain Districts in Houston and San Antonio, and perhaps even Dallas (but I haven't got one there yet).

[freepcrusher]

Here is a map that both parties would probably agree on. It gives the possibility of republicans having a 27-9 delegation, but it also has the opportunity for the possibility of an 18-18 split by the end of the decade.



This is the Houston Area.

Green district is the 2nd District. This takes is the same although it sheds its western appendage and takes in some areas from CD 22. This district is 55.9% White and McCain probably got in the high 50s or low 60s here. Ted Poe is the incumbent in another safe GOP seat.

Silver district is the 7th District. This district is more or less the same as it was before. The district adds a few areas from CD 2 and loses some of the eastern areas of the district, but politically it is probably the same at a 58 or 59 percent McCain District. The district is 55.2% White. Safe Republican

purplish district district is 8th District. This district is more similar to what it looked like before the DeLay gerrymander. This district is 64% White and could be the most republican suburban district in the country as McCain probably got around 71 percent here. Kevin Brady of course is safe here.

Light blue district is District 9. This district is more or less the same give or take some precincts. This district is 43.2% Hispanic, 34.7% Black, 10.9% White, 9.8% Asian, 1.3% Other, and 1% Native American. Obama probably got in the mid-high 70s here. Al Green is safe here.

Yellow District is District 18. Now a more compact looking district, this is now Hispanic plurality at 42.8%. Blacks are 30.5% and Whites are 20.6%. This district is 4.9% Asian, 1.2% Other and .2% Native American. Obama probably got in the mid 70s here. Sheila Jackson Lee, despite being gaffe prone, will be fine here.

Dark brown district is District 22. This district is similar although it sheds a lot of Harris county precincts. This district is 41.2% White, 25.7% Hispanic, 16% Black, 15% Asian, 1.9% other, and .2% Native American. This is probably an R+10 district. Considering Olsen defeated an incumbent in an otherwise good year for democrats, this is a safe GOP district.

Gray district is District 29. This is a 72.2% Hispanic district where Obama probably got in the low to mid 60s. Gene Green is safe in this district.

Dark blue district is District 33. This is a 46.3% White, 29.8% Hispanic, 13.8% Black, 8.1% Asian, 1.8% Other, and .2% Native American district. It basically takes in the fast growing areas of Fort Bend and Harris counties as well as Waller and Wharton counties. McCain probably got in the low 60s here. Dan Patrick or Glenn Hegar, both state senators, may run here.

I'll be back with more later

[freepcrusher]

This is the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

The light purple district in the top right is the 3rd District. This district is similar to the old CD 3 except it takes out Allen, Frisco, and McKinney and adds in some of north Dallas and Richardson. This district is 49.2% White, 24.1% Hispanic, 12.5% Asian, 11.9% Black, 3% Native American, and 2% Other. McCain probably got in the mid 50s in this district. Sam Johnson is the incumbent here. Safe GOP as long as he is there, and lean/likely GOP to whoever succeeds him when he retires (he was born in 1930)

The red district is District 4. This district takes the fast growing exurbs of the metroplex. It takes in all of Jodi Laubenberg and Ken Paxton’s districts as well as some areas of Denton County and I took in a precinct in Grayson county to get it to the magical 698,000 number. This district is 65.3% White and McCain probably got around 2/3 of the vote here. Ralph Hall is the incumbent here but he will be 89 in 2012 and the above mentioned members of the legislature may succeed him (both have 100 ratings from Texans for Fiscal Responsibility).

The yellow district is District 5. Similar to before although it does add in more rural areas previously from CD 6. This district is 54.8% White and McCain most likely got in the high 50s or low 60s here. Jeb Hensarling is safe in this district.

The light blue district on the left side is District 12. This district is 47% White, 34% Hispanic, 15.1% Black, 2.2% Asian, 1.3% other, and .4% Native American. This district sheds the northwestern part of Tarrant County and takes in some black areas from the old 26th district, but Granger should be safe as the district still contains the cracker counties of Parker and Wise. Kay Granger is the sanest out of all the Texas Republicans so I’m fine with her representing this district. McCain probably got in the mid to high 50s here.

Dark purple district in Tarrant County is District 24. This district basically takes in areas of the old 24th, old 26th, and the Tarrant portion of the 6th district. State Senator Chris Harris may run here. I’m guessing this would be an R+8 district. This is still majority white at 51.4%.

Silver District is District 26. Sheds a lot of Denton county area and takes in the northern part of the old 24th District. Kenny Marchant would face Michael Burgess in a primary here. This district is 49.9% White, 28.1% Hispanic, 10.5% Black, 9% Asian, 2.1% other, and .4% Native American. I’m guessing this is an R+12 or R+13 district.

Pink District is District 30. This is a 42.1% Black, 35.1% Hispanic, 19.5% White, 1.8% Asian, 1.2% Other, .3% Native American District. This is probably the most democratic district in Texas as Obama probably got in the high 70s low 80s here. Eddie Bernice Johnson is the incumbent here.

Orange district in Dallas County is District 32. This is Similar to the old 32nd although it loses Richardson/North Dallas and takes in some areas from old CD 5. This is a 43% Hispanic, 41.2% White, 10% Black, 4.2% Asian, 1.3% Other, .3% Native American District. McCain probably got in the low 50s here. Pete Sessions is the incumbent here. He should hold the district in 2012, but in the long term he needs to reposition himself as more of an Olympia Snowe type republican or else he may end up in the same situation Bob Dornan did 15 years ago.

Light orange district is District 36. This takes in a lot of fast growth areas in northern Tarrant County and parts of Denton County. It also adds a precinct from Cooke County to get to the magical 698,000 number. McCain probably got around 65 percent here. Jane Nelson, a high-ranking veteran in the state senate, may run in this 71.5% White district.