US House Redistricting: Texas

[Sam Spade]

Just as an FYI - don't be surprised to see Texas GOPers try to use Aaron Pena's recent switch to steal a seat (I doubt it's successful - but others have noted it too, and gaining four seats makes it more likely).

[Sam Spade]

Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.

I suspect the Texas GOP's interest in playing with Doggett will be directly inverse to the number of Hispanic districts they're forced to draw. 

Nevertheless, never, ever underestimate what Texas lawmakers will attempt to get away with in redistricting.  The plan for subdividing Austin into a million pieces is probably out there.

[Sam Spade]

Considering the make up of next years legislature, a likely speaker who isn't afraid to Gerrymander, and a douchebag governor,  Doggett probably won't get such a nice looking district as the one in your map shows.

Yeah, he will. Austin is growing too fast and is too strongly Democratic to try to split up any more. It would just make Republican incumbents vulnerable. The Republicans will give Doggett a very safe seat and pack the Democrats in Austin in.

I suspect the Texas GOP's interest in playing with Doggett will be directly inverse to the number of Hispanic districts they're forced to draw. 

Nevertheless, never, ever underestimate what Texas lawmakers will attempt to get away with in redistricting.  The plan for subdividing Austin into a million pieces is probably out there.

Maldef or Lulac had proposed an Austin-San Antonio district as their remedy back in 2006.  That could pull some Democrats out of Bexar, making Canseco safer.  So Doggett's district becomes a Hispanic-opportunity district.  Create a district in Cameron-Hidalgo, which means Farenthold's district becomes pure Coastal Bend.  And move the Big Bend into Cuellar's district.

Makes sense from the GOP angle, which means I wouldn't be surprised if they do it.

[Sam Spade]

Without having to do this myself, are we going to get any realistic looks at what's going to go on here? 

Those who want to post ideas need to start thinking like a partisan Republican that thinks all Dems are Commie fags who rape kids - because that's who will draw the maps.

[Sam Spade]

The issue with Hispanics is that unless they're a majority with a sizable black population or, at minimum, over 60% in number (better yet 65%), you never get the result you want in Texas.  They either don't show up - or if they're in the suburbs, they tend to vote more Republican than you want them to.

My gut tells me that the Houston area is going to remain the same and the three minority CDs will simply expand outward to take in more minorities (since the population was either stable or declined).  You can pack the blacks, but then the second Hispanic district will elect a white Dem or maybe a white GOP if you draw it deviously enough.  Besides, the black reps are not going to be happy giving away one of their CDs.

Dallas is rather simple in comparison - the new Hispanic district can be drawn out of 24 and 32 and everyone will be happy.

Rather, the game is going to be in San Antonio, Austin and South Texas.

[Sam Spade]

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Technically not, in practice yes - the district struck down was another one, but the remedy chosen made it very very clear what the court actually thought of that monstrosity. (Of course, the district was represented by Lloyd Doggett during the two years that it existed.)

Which is why the Texas GOP will probably lump the Austin Hispanics in with the San Antonio Hispanics and split the rest of the white Dem areas in Austin among GOP districts.  Charlie Gonzalez's CD has to expand anyway, and I don't know how much more GOP suburbs he would want.  Plus, as we noted this year, a second San Antonio Hispanic district becomes highly questionable as Dem unless you push it up to Austin (or push it down to the border - which the courts didn't like).  There just simply aren't enough Hispanic Dem precincts.

Also, one of the new districts *has* to be placed within the Austin and San Antonio suburbs, which makes this solution have even more validity.  You move the border portions of TX-23 into TX-28 and the white Republican portions of TX-25 are combined with Corpus Christi to create a new TX-25 for Farenthold.  TX-15 and TX-27 become true border districts, except that you design the more northern of the two to be marginal enough for the party switcher.

Or at least that's how I would do it upon first glance.

As for Houston, I can definitely see the option of packing the blacks and creating another Hispanic opportunity seat that might, in fact, be pretty marginal.  That may well be done.

In Dallas, creating the Hispanic opportunity seat is probably the best idea.  Otherwise, you start knocking your McCain margins down to below 55% in more than one of those Dallas seats.

I'm being nice and creating a 25-11 map (presently 23-9) with a chance for the party switcher to make it 26-10.  Don't underestimate the GOP trying for 26-10 or even 27-9, though.  It can be done, but it's just more challenging and risks court challenges, of course.

[Sam Spade]

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

[Sam Spade]

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.

[Sam Spade]

In my first try (up in a couple of days when I get the numbers exactly right), I have managed to create the Hispanic-majority CD from Austin to San Antonio (not that hard really), while completely f-ing the Austin white students many times over (and from strange angles too), and ensuring no return of Chet Edwards or older time Dems.  The Corpus Christi seat may need a little work, but all border seats have been maintained, as per VRA, even though the new TX-27 is designed as a border seat to give the party switcher a chance..

This is my nice map - The Texas GOP could well be meaner in reality.

Do you plan to "publish" your map?

Yes, but I have to clean it up a bit first.

Sam, just as a note of caution, the population data is only accurate at the county level. Within counties, Dave Bradlee just assumes everything grew or shrank at the same rate since 2000. That is not such a big deal in relatively stagnant states like Wisconsin, but for a demographically dynamic state like Texas, that will tend to make your maps that take in the high population counties a piece of crap. Muon2 pointed this out to me.

And then there is Michigan, where the Detroit metro area has been shrinking. When the real numbers roll in, that might well help the Pubbies a bit from what one can do per Bradlee's software. I suspect the spots were there has been relative population loss are disproportionately Dem within Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.

I realize the software is not perfect, especially not in the big cities.  For example, errors abound in the internal precincts of Houston, as I see obvious black precincts in Houston where black and Hispanic and/or white and black numbers are screwed up.

I am sure that the growth rates of the areas within the major counties will undoubtedly benefit the GOP in the map, as most of the Dallas/San Antonio/Houston current minority areas have been losing population.

Consider this an attempt that will be clarified when we get good data.

Just FYI, krazen has really stumbled closer to the plan that will probably be used, as Dems will probably complain about the new TX-27 in my map.  To stop the complaining, I would point out that I am also pretty sure that I can put Cuellar and Hinojosa in the same district and create three McCain Hispanic 60% districts. (i.e. instead of 25-11 or 26-10, how about 27-9  )

[Sam Spade]

Texas Gerrymander Attempt #1

Goals: 1) 25 seats of McCain 58% (57.50%) or better; 2) At least one competitive seat (D+5 PVI to R+5 PVI); 3) 9-10 safe Democratic seats; 4) 8 Hispanic majority-minority seats (60% Hispanic or higher, by my count, should get you to 50% VAP).

Major Concern: TX-25 is 46% white, 46% Hispanic and might be viewed as Hispanic vote dilution.

Argument: I can f-ck with you much worse, as in, I'm pretty sure I can put Cuellar and Hinojosa in the same district and create three highly marginal border CDs (definitely two with McCain 53%-55%) that meet all specifications.

Note: Full views of all maps can be found in my folder.  The full view of Texas is cut off a bit at the top.  Did not include CD numbering until later pictures.

[Sam Spade]

TX-1 (Gohmert's Lair)
Incumbent Home: Tyler (Smith County)
Voting: McCain 68% (69%), Obama 31% (31%)
Race: 70% White, 20% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Comment: Mostly unchanged from previous iteration.  Lufkin is taken out and replaced with a bit of Texarkana and some rural east Texas.



TX-2 (Lampson's Nightmare)
Incumbent Home: Humble (Harris County)
Voting: McCain 62% (60%), Obama 37% (40%)
Race: White 69%, Black 14%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 4%
Comment: Similar to the present TX-2, except Kingwood is put in TX-22 and Port Arthur is put into TX-8 (thus separating Port Arthur and Beaumont).  I'm pretty sure Poe's home is in the district - Humble is separate from Kingwood - but change can be made easily if this is a problem.  In exchange, Poe gets northern parts of Liberty, adds Harbin County, and gets a nice (more) rural slice of Montgomery which will probably gain GOP constituents over time.



TX-3 (How I Hate Dallas County, Texas)
Incumbent Home: Plano (Collin County)
Voting: McCain 62% (57%), Obama 37% (42%)
Race: 78% White, 9% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% Black
Comment: Sam Johnson's CD extricates itself from the older Dallas suburbs to go further north in Collin County, into Grayson County (Sherman and Denison) to the TX-OK border, thereby gaining Republican voters.

[Sam Spade]

TX-4 (Of Memories Past)
Incumbent Home: Rockwell (Rockwell County)
Voting: McCain 70% (69%), Obama 29% (30%)
Race: White 78%, Black 11%, Hispanic 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: In the olden days of Texas politics, no Republican would ever draw this type of CD.  It's got too many rural parts, leaving room for Dems to come in and snatch the thing up.  Now, it will be the most McCain CD in Texas.  Hall's new seat drops all of the Collin County suburbs, part of Grayson County and some of Texarkana to go down south, picking up parts of former TX-5 and TX-6, as well as half of Lufkin (including the black parts).





TX-5 (Hensarling's Haunt)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 61% (63%), Obama 38% (36%)
Race: White 70%, Hispanic 15%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: The ugliness of this CD is because I can't remember whether Hensarling lives in Mesquite or in White Rock Lake, and because of the necessities for the new Hispanic majority-minority district.  The CD has also been tightened up a bit, removing all of the territory to the South, removing a lot of the territory to the East, and taking in some of Joe Barton's Dallas suburbs.



TX-6 (Best Lunch Ever Was in Ennis, Texas - It Was Also the Scariest)
Incumbent Home: Ennis (Ellis County)
Voting: McCain 61% (60%), Obama 38% (40%)
Race: White 70%, Black 14%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 3%
Comment: Similar to the present TX-6, except some Fort Worth suburbs are taken away.  To compensate that, the CD moves South and adds half of Lufkin, as well as Huntsville (Walker County) and even half of Grimes County!  Truly an I-45 CD now.  

[Sam Spade]

TX-7 (Rich Houstonians Still Vote Republican)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: McCain 59% (58.54% exact) (58%), Obama 41% (41%)
Race: White 61%, Hispanic 24%, Asian 8%, Black 6%
Comment: Very careful precinct picking has only pushed the CD up 1% in McCain voting.  Because of the tricks that are necessary in the rest of the state (i.e. Austin), the easiest thing is to leave this CD the way it presently is, which is basically what this gerrymander does.  R+13 should be enough, anyway, even as things brown a bit.  I believe the incumbent lives in the rich suburbs south of I-10.



TX-8 (Why Waste Montgomery County on One Guy)
Incumbent Home: The Woodlands (Montgomery County)
Voting: McCain 68% (74%), Obama 31% (26%)
Race: White 74%, Black 12%, Hispanic 12%, Asian 3%
Comment: In case, you haven't noticed, I divided fast-growing GOP Montgomery County into three (anticipating potential future movements).  Besides, who wants to waste all those votes on Brady?  Anyway, this CD stretches around to gather in black (err.. Dem) strongholds of Port Arthur, Galveston and part of Texas City, in exchange for removing Huntsville and some lesser rural east Texas counties.



TX-9 (The Lesser Al Green)
Incumbent Home: Houston - Alief (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 77% (77%), McCain 22% (23%)
Race: Black 38%, Hispanic 33%, White 17%, Asian 12%, Other 1%
Comment: Much as TX-7, this CD stays pretty much the same, only to expand a little.  Trying to design a second Hispanic-majority CD in Houston is next to impossible unless you want to endanger a Dem seat and/or a GOP seat (especially under the above guidelines), so I just gave up trying.  It's almost impossible to get two Hispanic-majority CDs anyway.

[Sam Spade]

TX-10 (McCaul's Maul)
Incumbent Home: Austin (Travis County)
Voting: McCain 58% (57.57% exact) (55%), Obama 41% (44%)
Race: White 71%, Hispanic 15%, Asian 7%, Black 7%
Comment: Since McCaul lives in Austin, this CD must extend to Austin.  Note that new TX-34 basically does the same thing, so if he lives in TX-34 and not TX-10, he can run there instead (margin is the same).  I have lessened the Austin impact in TX-10 by using TX-34 and doing the evil manuever below (The Dangling Arm of Death).  Some Harris County suburbs are removed, as is Austin and Waller, to TX-34, in exchange for a few hyper-GOP, insanely fast-growing Montgomery County precincts.





TX-11 (The Dangling Arm of Death)
Incumbent Home: Midland (Midland County)
Voting: McCain 61% (74%), Obama 38% (26%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 27%, Black 4%, Asian 3%
Comment: It is nothing but pure evil.  It begins, a much narrower strip than before, which takes up Midland, Odessa, Big Spring and San Angelo, until we reach Burnet County, where the arm stretches out, reaching into the heart of Austin, and castrating all the impotent students and government workers of a chance to pick someone who represents them.  The Bush-God from Midland strikes again against those who fail to worship him.



TX-12 (Granger's Getaway)
Incumbent Home: Fort Worth (Tarrant County)
Voting: McCain 62% (63%), Obama 38% (36%)
Race: White 71%, Hispanic 17%, Black 9%, Asian 3%
Comment: Granger trades some hyper-GOP precincts in North Fort Worth to new TX-36 for some rural, west of Fort Worth, counties.  No real change in voting patterns.

[Sam Spade]

TX-13 (The Dangling Arm of Death - The Sequel)
Incumbent Home: Clarendon (Donley County)
Voting: McCain 73% (77%), Obama 26% (23%)
Race: White 72%, Hispanic 19%, Black 6%, Asian 3%
Comment: Although centered around Amarillo and Wichita Falls, this west Texas strip is also narrower than before, letting new TX-36 take over its dormant rural areas.  Its little Dangling Arm of Death reaches into Denton this time to castrate all those annoying, impotent University of North Texas students.



TX-14 (Ron Paul Land)
Incumbent Home: Surfside (Brazoria County)
Voting: McCain 63% (66%), Obama 37% (33%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 20%, Black 10%, Asian 4%
Comment: With the recasting of TX-25 as a Coastal Bend CD, Ron Paul Land gets a rethink.  This version compresses it to most of Brazoria County, Galveston County (minus Galveston), Anahuac County (really the "Deep South") and Harris County "suburbs" along Galveston Bay.  Safely Republican, but less McCain than before.



TX-15 (A Real South Texas "Border" CD For Once)
Incumbent Home: Mercedes (Hidalgo County)
Voting: Obama 75% (60%), McCain 25% (40%)
Race: Hispanic 92%, White 7%, Asian 1%
Comment: In the rather conscious attempt to create a lean GOP, open TX-27 (which it is), I put every solidly Dem precinct in Hinojosa's CD along the border.  This means the CD basically rides the border from Brownsville to McAllen, taking in every rural precinct possible (as these are *always* more Democratic), except for Edinburg, so as to give an opportunity for the party-switcher.

[Sam Spade]

TX-16 (El Paso Is Ugly, But Juarez Is a Hellhole)
Incumbent Home: El Paso (El Paso County)
Voting: Obama 65% (66%), McCain 34% (34%)
Race: Hispanic 76%, White 18%, Black 3%, Asian 2%, Other 1%
Comment:Reyes' CD is basically unchanged from before, except that a few precincts have been moved to TX-28 because of population growth greater than the baseline.



TX-17 (Edwards Ain't Coming Back Man)
Incumbent Home: Bryan (Brazos County)
Voting: McCain 64% (67%), Obama 35% (32%)
Race: White 68%, Black 14%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 4%
Comment: I take away some of Flores' Dallas suburbs and move the district slightly further East while removing the Grimes County, Madisonville, east Brenham parts.  In its place, I add Edwards' old stomping ground - Fort Hood and Killeen.  So you might ask why I want Edwards back?  For the answer, see TX-19's Dangling Arm of Death into Waco's annoying center of blacks and college students that eliminates any future Edwards return...  





TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee is One Annoying B*tch)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 82% (77%), McCain 17% (22%)
Race: Black 49%, Hispanic 26%, White 16%, Asian 5%, Other 1%
Comment: Just so the d*mn woman doesn't get a bigger head than she already has, I'm leaving her at 49% blacks, even though I could well make it 50%.  The CD is basically the same as before, though the precincts are more carefully cut apart (i.e. why is Garden Oaks in her CD now? - those white precincts with some Hispanic browning should be in TX-7)

[Sam Spade]

Other half later today.

[Sam Spade]

Basically, by playing around with South Texas and West Texas, I managed to create a map which:

1) Holds 24 CDs at 57.50% McCain of higher.
2) Creates 3 safe Dem seats in Houston, 2 in Dallas and 2 in San Antonio/Austin (4 being Hispanic majority-minority CDs)
3) Creates a new TX-15 along the border where Cuellar and Hinojosa must face each other in a primary.
4) Creates a new TX-25 along Corpus Christi with 60% Hispanic and 51% McCain for Farenthold.
5) Creates a new TX-27 with an Edinburg center for the party switcher with 66% Hispanic and 52% McCain.
6) Creates a new TX-28 in west Texas with 64% Hispanic and 53% McCain.

I could even play around and probably avoid the minority-majority CD in Dallas, but I think that may be going too far.  The west Texas CD may well be snatched up by Pete Gallego - I understand that danger.

The map may also be illegal in other ways - it's your choose.  More tonight or tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Basically, by playing around with South Texas and West Texas, I managed to create a map which:

1) Holds 24 CDs at 57.50% McCain of higher.
2) Creates 3 safe Dem seats in Houston, 2 in Dallas and 2 in San Antonio/Austin (4 being Hispanic majority-minority CDs)
3) Creates a new TX-15 along the border where Cuellar and Hinojosa must face each other in a primary.
4) Creates a new TX-25 along Corpus Christi with 60% Hispanic and 51% McCain for Farenthold.
5) Creates a new TX-27 with an Edinburg center for the party switcher with 66% Hispanic and 52% McCain.
6) Creates a new TX-28 in west Texas with 64% Hispanic and 53% McCain.

I could even play around and probably avoid the minority-majority CD in Dallas, but I think that may be going too far.  The west Texas CD may well be snatched up by Pete Gallego - I understand that danger.

The map may also be illegal in other ways - it's your choose.  More tonight or tomorrow.

I'll post the rest of the *nice* map with comments later, as well as the evil one, but as I look over both maps, the nice one is too conciliatory (even though new TX-25 is not minority-majority Hispanic and really safe R) and I suspect this one is probably too stretched.  It's just nearly impossible to get 27-9 if you concede a Dallas Hispanic majority-minority district, and logic says that this is a wise move imo.

26-10 can certainly be done, however, with the creation of the extra Hispanic minority-majority CD as mentioned above, and I can probably get the McCain % up to 54.50% in the two South Texas CDs and stick with the 57.50% in the other 24 CDs. 

Lastly, the combination of Cuellar with Hinojosa, btw, is a move of brilliance, if I may say so.  The map works even better with that bit of deviousness.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, I demand you post the remainder of this particular plan this year. (And no, while it arguably "could be worse", this is probably about as evil as you can get without being shot down by the courts. Actually, that 90-odd% Hispanic district better not border any R-leaning seat if it wants to withstand court challenge.)

Sure - I get caught up doing other things sometimes.  I'll also post the 27-9 attempt within Map #1.  It's ugly, but I like it.

I'm also working on a second map, which is a bit of a rethink on the Texas gerrymander (not that great of one - since Austin still has to be divided into a million parts) and which makes TX-25 into Hispanic minority-majority.  Or very, very close - I'm only aiming for 58.50% Hispanic here, which should be enough for 50%+1 VAP in most of Texas.

The benefit to this second map is that it *looks* a whole lot better - districts are less fajita-strip and county divides are much less common.  And it should be 25-11 safe, with 26-10 probable, unless Farenthold is a real incompetent - and another Republican would probably have a good chance in this CD.

[Sam Spade]

TX-19 (The Dangling Arm of Death - This Time It's Personal)
Incumbent Home: Lubbock (Lubbock County)
Voting: McCain 69% (72%), Obama 30% (29%)
Race: White 65%, Hispanic 24%, Black 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: TX-19 still takes in Lubbock and Abilene, but the CD is narrowed to a nice little strip by removing a number of pointless West Texas rural counties.  This alteration allows its "dangling arm of death" to invalidate all those minority Democratic precincts in Waco and neuter all those annoying Baylor students.



TX-20 (Gonzalez - Past and Present)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: Obama 62% (63%), McCain 37% (36%)
Race: Hispanic 66%, White 24%, Black 8%, Asian 2%
Comment: Gonzalez's CD moves outward to take in outer Bexar precincts, while ceding a certain amount of inner Bexar precincts to the largely revamped TX-23.



TX-21 (Bexar County Whites Have GOP Tattooed On Their Foreheads)
Incumbent Home: San Antonio (Bexar County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.10% exact) (58%), Obama 40% (41%)
Race: White 67%, Hispanic 25%, Black 4%, Asian 3%
Comment: My redesign of the TX-21 removes the heart of the German Hill Country and this district's former piece of Austin to give to Canseco in new TX-35.  Since the rest of this CD is growing quite fast, all I need to do is add Hays County to create a nice compact district (for once) that is slightly more Republican than the one before.

[Sam Spade]

TX-22 (Lampson's Temporary Abode)
Incumbent Home: Sugar Land (Fort Bend County)
Voting: McCain 61% (58%), Obama 38% (41%)
Race: White 61%, Hispanic 21%, Asian 10%, Black 8%
Comment: This design exchanges a certain amount of Fort Bend County (not Olson's home in Sugar Land, naturally) for some fast-growing and rather Republican suburbs in NE Harris County, including the already-grown Kingwood area.  This strengthens the Republican lean of the CD already present in the current model.  It also makes the new TX-22 look a bit like Japan...







TX-23 (A Real Hispanic Democratic District This Time)
Incumbent Home: None (pretty sure Doggett doesn't live here)
Voting: Obama 62% (51%), McCain 37% (48%)
Race: Hispanic 60% (59.75% exact), White 24%, Black 13%, Asian 2%
Comment: Another Japan-looking-like snake CD, but any Austin-San Antonio Hispanic majority-minority CD will have to look something like this in order to meet the required VAP.  This is the perfect CD for Ciro Rodriguez to make his return, as most of his old South Bexar stomping grounds remain intact.  Note that the black portions of Austin are found in this CD, whereas the black portions of San Antonio are moved to TX-20 (to create the required VAP number).



TX-24 (Another Boring Metroplex District Heads North)
Incumbent Home: Coppell (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 61% (55%), Obama 39% (44%)
Race: White 72%, Hispanic 13%, Asian 8%, Black 7%
Comment: TX-24 is made considerably more Republican by the creation of TX-33 Hispanic minority-majority district in the middle of Dallas.  This iteration chooses to add further GOP precincts by creating a fajita strip heading northward along the eastern edge of suburbs in Denton County and by grabbing most of rural Cooke County in North Texas.

[Sam Spade]

TX-25 (Farenthold Will Survive Here)
Incumbent Home: Corpus Christi (Nueces County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.18% exact) (40%), Obama 40% (59%)
Race: White 48%, Hispanic 44%, Black 6%, Asian 2%
Comment: Doggett's former TX-25 is completely refashioned, in this map, as a Corpus Christi-Victoria Coastal Bend CD.  Cameron County is removed and replaced by a number of white rural redneck counties to the north that are used to voting for nuts.  The complaint that will be made, naturally, is that there is dilution of Hispanic voters by not creating another Hispanic majority-minority CD in South Texas, which can be done.  The GOP can deal with this, but the result will certainly two, if not three highly marginal CDs.  I've done the three marginal CDs one in another version of the same map - and they are all McCain districts, but barely, and in South Texas, this will create a real problem, if history is any guide.  With the two CDs, I can probably get both up to 53%-54%, but that will be an issue nonetheless.  An interesting alternative will be provided in the second map, which I believe is a more solid 26-10 than this version, but removes the possibility of 27-9.



TX-26 (Burgess' Bulwark)
Incumbent Home: Flower Mound (Denton County)
Voting: McCain 61% (58%), Obama 38% (41%)
Race: White 74%, Hispanic 11%, Black 10%, Asian 6%
Comment: Most of Denton (both college students and Republicans) are removed from TX-26 to add a bigger slice of rich Fort Worth suburbs and poor black areas, including parts of TX-24.  Given the growth in this CD, its confines had to shrink a bit, regardless.





TX-27 (The Party-Switcher's Possibility)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: Obama 50% (50.29% exact) (53%), Obama 49% (46%)
Race: Hispanic 68%, Hispanic 29%, Black 2%, Asian 1%
Comment: This marginal open seat is designed by the GOP either for the party-switcher in Edinburg (note how Edinburg and much of his House seat is nicely included here) or for a GOP official in Cameron County (which comprises most of this CD's population).  Along the border, precincts have been closely analyzed for their Republican-ness.  The rest of the CD includes most of present-day TX-15 except that Hinojosa in Mercedes is carefully drawn out of the CD.

[Sam Spade]

TX-28 (Along the Border)
Incumbent Home: Laredo (Webb County)
Voting: Obama 65% (56%), McCain 34% (44%)
Race: Hispanic 86%, White 12%, Asian 1%, Black 1%
Comment: The basic change here is removing the German areas around Seguin and the other Hispanic areas around San Antonio in exchange for the long rural border area presently in TX-23.  This strengthens the Obama tilt of the CD.





TX-29 (Green is Not a Brown)
Incumbent Home: Houston (Harris County)
Voting: Obama 64% (62%), McCain 35% (38%)
Race: Hispanic 70%, White 18%, Black 9%, Asian 2%
Comment: TX-29 remains basically the same, except with some tightening here and there of the gerrymander and some addition of stronger Obama precincts.





TX-30 (The Part of Dallas You Don't Want to See)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: Obama 78% (82%), Obama 22% (18%)
Race: Black 45%, White 30%, Hispanic 20%, Asian 5%
Comment: I have some fun here going north in a little "octopus tentacle" to pick up some minority precincts, as some of TX-30 has to be cut off in order in order to create new Hispanic minority-majority TX-33.  The other option is going west into Tarrant County, fyi.

[Sam Spade]

TX-31 (Carter's Creation)
Incumbent Home: Round Rock (Williamson County)
Voting: McCain 59% (59.19% exact) (58%), Obama 39% (42%)
Race: White 73%, Hispanic 15%, Black 8%, Asian 3%
Comment: TX-31 basically remains the same, exchanging some stronger McCain precincts for weaker McCain precincts, in particular giving Killeen and Fort Hood back to TX-17.  Carter lives in Round Rock, the most Southern part of Williamson County, so maps almost have to keep Williamson County in one piece.





TX-32 (Reworking Sessions)
Incumbent Home: Dallas (Dallas County)
Voting: McCain 59% (58.95% exact) (53%), Obama 40% (46%)
Race: White 73%, Hispanic 15%, Black 8%, Asian 3%
Comment: The large Hispanic part of TX-32 is detached to create new TX-33 Hispanic minority-majority district.  In exchange, Sessions gets the Dallas portion of TX-3, the Collin County part of TX-4, and even stretches north to take in half of Grayson County from TX-4.  In other words, much like Johnson in TX-3, Sessions' CD is extended to take in newer line suburbs to protect against future demographic changes



TX-33 (Maybe Martin Frost Can Run Here)
Incumbent Home: None
Voting: Obama 66%, McCain 33%
Race: Hispanic 60% (59.97% exact), White 23%, Black 13%, Asian 3%
Comment: From the ruins of TX-24, TX-30 and TX-32 comes the new Hispanic CD in Dallas.  I picked my fine tooth comb through all the Metroplex precincts, and this is basically the only way it can be designed to get it around the 60% magic number, so don't go around thinking there are other possibilities...