US House Redistricting: Texas

[minionofmidas]

Remember the last hispanic-opportunity district for Doggett?

[minionofmidas]

Without having to do this myself, are we going to get any realistic looks at what's going to go on here? 

Those who want to post ideas need to start thinking like a partisan Republican that thinks all Dems are Commie fags who rape kids - because that's who will draw the maps.

Fags who rape kids? Yeah. I for one wouldn't be surprised.

[minionofmidas]

East Texas had some highly decent Congressmen until 2004. (And no, I don't recall ever hearing that Texas led the nation in lynchings. Unless you mean since 1965. Or maybe East Texas led within Texas? Would make sense.)

[minionofmidas]

The only district that was slightly f---ed up was the district that took in all the areas within a couple miles of Austin-SA. It is in dark brown.

Slightly? Lolwut?

[minionofmidas]

That would eliminate a Black (well, Black-held multiracial) district in Houston. Probably not going to fly with the DoJ, I suppose.

(Still, it's more realistic compared to crusher's maps... since Democrats aren't going to draw the map.)

[minionofmidas]

My gut tells me that the Houston area is going to remain the same

Same here.

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Jim thought a map keeping Jackson-Lee the only Democrat was possible, IIRC.

But how good of an argument is to say that Blacks need two opportunity districts?

The thing is that Al Green will be safe in a 45% Hispanic, 30% Black type district - but it would be Hispanic opportunity when open.

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Technically not, in practice yes - the district struck down was another one, but the remedy chosen made it very very clear what the court actually thought of that monstrosity. (Of course, the district was represented by Lloyd Doggett during the two years that it existed.)

[minionofmidas]

TX-13 (The Dangling Arm of Death - The Sequel)

I prefer "The Daughter of the Dangling Arm of Death".

[minionofmidas]

Sam, I demand you post the remainder of this particular plan this year. (And no, while it arguably "could be worse", this is probably about as evil as you can get without being shot down by the courts. Actually, that 90-odd% Hispanic district better not border any R-leaning seat if it wants to withstand court challenge.)

[minionofmidas]

Revenant Ciro!

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't worry about Sam's metro districts, what with the fact that not nearly all the non-Blacks / non-Mexicans are Anglo. Though who knows.

[minionofmidas]

Forget dreaming. You're not going to get these things past any court, if the TX23 decision is any indication.

[minionofmidas]

They pretty much have to add some territory to the border seats and create an additional seat there. Not trying to make that an R seat would be silly. Going north from Corpus and drawing a seat for Farenthold is the obvious choice - otherwise you're forced to do the kind of map krazen and Sam are talking about further west.
Obviously, you could make it a whole lot more marginal on the basis of "look at the seat he won in 2010", but...

[minionofmidas]

What you're trying to do is eliminate a Hispanic opportunity seat (that is, a seat in which the victor will be reliant on widespread Hispanic support), while technically fulfilling a random cutoff line and while creating unnecessarily disparate, huge constituencies in particularly empty minority country. You're doing exactly what the TX-23 decision says you can't do in West Texas, except with several districts. And run the risk of the same thing happening again - your seats struck down and your evil plans for other seats thwarted as an indirect consequence.


At which point I went to read the SC decision, because I think I've only ever read the district court's.

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Yeah, seems to me like they're saying "random figures like 60% or whatever are not of primary relevance. What matters is the outcome". Oh, and also "what Justice Kennedy thinks is not of primary relevance. These dudes are actually slightly more important - we're unlikely to flat out overturn them unless they unduly provoke us, even if we don't like their reasoning (this is, after all, what they did with TX23 - change the parts of the reasoning that they didn't like while upholding the outcome).
Oh, and here:

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Yeah, (largely) non-voting Hispanic communities in the Permian Basin and parts of the panhandle are just about the posterbook case for what's described here.

Ok, another question. Shouldn't Republicans be worried about banking on multiple 52-54% McCain, 60+% Hispanic districts in places where nearly all of the population growth in the next 10 years is going to make the districts more Democratic?

I don't think anyone is banking on them (although R+5 to R+7 is not all that unsafe), but what else
can you do with the territory?

In this case and with these districts... actually I find em quite unsafe. At even money, I'd bet on your TX27 and TX28 voting for Hispanic Democrats most of the time.  Your TX23 wouldn't, but (in conjunction with that 11th) it's not going to last long. It's a fairly unequivocal dilution of Latino voting strength.
The bizarre thing is that from a personal preferences pov, I like a compact Lower Valley district... (though yours isn't as compact as it ought to be)... and that you're at current throwing the gain away by conceding a seat to Doggett. Which is what "ought" to be done, of course, but probably isn't strictly necessary and probably won't be done. Sam's earlier plan to set him up for a battle against Ciro Rodriguez is a very good idea is a very good idea to get rid of him. (Though if I were Canseco I wouldn't have liked Sam's plan at all, actually - safe from the Democrats, but thrown to the Anglo Primary wolves.)

[minionofmidas]

Forget dreaming. You're not going to get these things past any court, if the TX23 decision is any indication.

Unless you know something about Anthony Kennedy that nobody else does, it shouldn't be any indication.

The more I think about it, the surer I am that I know Kennedy's mind on VRA issues quite well.

"I'd much rather not be having to think about them anymore at all. It is my duty to hear these cases, but I am somewhat unlikely to actually listen. Unfortunately not one of my colleagues can be trusted on them, but thankfully most of the lower courts can, and while I reserve the right to contradict them, it is rather unlikely that I will."

[minionofmidas]

My TX-15 and TX-28 are pure border districts and quite legal, regardless of the fact that I can get one of them to potential marginal status if I make Farenthold weaker. 

Wait... which map again? My whole "courts'll strike it down" argument is in reference to krazen's map (and probably the new one you're promising), not your first attempt. Your first attempt looks to me like it ought to stand.

The rest of that opinion, though, specifically referenced CVAP and the ability (or inability) to vote for a candidate.

Yes, but only because that was quite enough on its own to strike it down. It's VRA case law. There aren't any sufficient conditions to prove a district is fine, only necessary conditions. 

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The most likely remedy; but also your best-case scenario once the seats have been struck down. They could easily redraw a few more seats while they're at it, as they did in the TX23 case.

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Yeah, I was comparing to a hypothetical unposted combination of your and Sam's maps in which they were both targetted. I ought to be technically possible... or would be without the VRA. Anyways, if the Delaymander is anything to go by (possibly not), TX Reps'll be more interested in targetting Doggett than Cuellar.

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Oh, quite. The question is, how far will they get?

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The District Court *technically* did, or pretended they did, really. The SC expressly struck it down. The SC decision is really just adapting the DC's logic to better fit the precedent without having to change the outcome, though.

[minionofmidas]

Btw, I may create a version of said map (talked about above in great extent) which leaves Cuellar and Webb intact, thus leaving us to argue whether the fact Canseco and Farenthold got elected in TX-23 and TX-27 means that the Hispanic majority is exercising its vote differently now. 

I fully expect the state of Texas to make such an argument, actually. And I don't even think it's wholly inaccurate - Ortiz probably got ousted because he was getting too old and people were tired of him.

[minionofmidas]

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Yeah, I was comparing to a hypothetical unposted combination of your and Sam's maps in which they were both targetted. I ought to be technically possible... or would be without the VRA. Anyways, if the Delaymander is anything to go by (possibly not), TX Reps'll be more interested in targetting Doggett than Cuellar.

Which still makes for a counting error on my part, given that Sam was replacing Doggett with another Democrat. Just noticed that. Sorry.

[minionofmidas]

I would just say the opposite, actually. Part of the point of Delaymandering was to target Cuellar, who wasn't a member of the House yet.

Cuellar almost knocked off Henry Bonilla, so they wanted to knock down the Hispanic % there and remove Laredo from the 23rd.

They split Laredo, actually, just as you're doing now. It was an issue in the District Court's ruling. And they drew Cuellar's home into a safe democratic district, which he then ran in, primarying Ciro, so...

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Not really. They argued afterwards that that was what they had done, though, after it became clear that the original line that Bonilla's was still a Hispanic-opportunity district (or alternatively, that it hadn't been before 2002, and thus didn't need to be made into one just because it would be natural to do so. Which, btw, is a line of logic wholly alien to the VRA) wouldn't fly.

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They could have easily left Hinojosa's district alone. Resulting in a less white, less compact seat for Doggett.
Of course, in practice they probably felt that district was just as much of a disgrace as its western neighbors. Changes in outer Bexar (Gonzalez' district was left unchanged) were massive all-round and could easily have been reduced.

[minionofmidas]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.



Enhances:

Dallas



Houston



San Antonio with Austin



This is far from perfect - there's still a few Democrats marooned in Dallas area Republican districts, there's still far too few Republicans trapped in Houston area Democratic districts, and those border districts slice it far too close - I had 50.5% Obama as a minimum goal, but in the end I decided I didn't want to draw that necessary tentacle into Austin or revisit the El Paso split, and was satisfied with a plurality in two of them.

CD2 Beaumont and Galveston, 52% Obama, 45% white, 29% black, 21% hispanic
CD5 SE Dallas and adjoining rural parts, 52% Obama, 60% white
CD7 NW Houston, 55% Obama, 38% white, 34% hispanic, 20% black
CD9 SW Houston, 55% Obama, 32% white, 30% hispanic, 25% black
CD11 a new additional bacon strip to go between Cuellar and Hinojosa, 50% Obama, 62% hispanic
CD12 Fort Worth, 55% Obama, 48% white, 28% hispanic, 19% black
CD15 made a lot more erose, 52% Obama, 69% hispanic
CD16 El Paso to Odessa, 55% Obama, 66% hispanic
CD18 Central Houston, 56% Obama, 49% white, 24% black, 22% hispanic
CD20 WC San Antonio, 51% Obama, 53% hispanic
CD21 EC San Antonio, 51% Obama, 47% hispanic, 40% white
CD22 South Houston, a whopping 62% Obama, 36% white, 33% black, 21% hispanic
CD23 still the huge southwestern district, but now with no San Antonio, only half of Laredo, but with Midland, half of Odessa, half of Abilene and a much larger share of El Paso. 51% Obama, 71% hispanic
CD25 roughly where it was, 55% Obama, 57% white
CD27 roughly as is, 52% Obama, 67% hispanic
CD28 now stretching all the way from Brownsville to Abilene. 53% Obama, 75% hispanic
CD29 East Houston, 55% Obama, 59% hispanic
CD30 East Dallas, 54% Obama, 48% white, 26% hispanic, 22% black
CD31 NW Austin, Round Rock, 52% Obama, 75% white
CD32 Central Dallas, 53% Obama, 45% white, 34% hispanic
CD33 West Dallas County, 53% Obama, 42% white, 39% hispanic
CD34 NE Austin and points north, 56% Obama, 53% white

Oh yeah, Republicans get districts too.
CD1 East Texas, 70% McCain
CD2 Collin County, 61% McCain
CD4 NE Texas, 69% McCain
CD6 suburban Forth Worth, 59% McCain
CD8 Montgomery County and stuff, 70% McCain
CD10 NW Houston and points beyond, 67% McCain
CD13 NW Texas, 76% McCain
CD14 Ronpaulland, 67% McCain
CD17 West Central Texas, 74% McCain
CD19 NW Texas, 72% McCain
CD24 Tarrant/Denton, 63% McCain
CD26 NW Dallas Metro, 68% McCain
CD35 from the southern outskirts of Dallas to Orange County, 70% McCain
CD36 and to think that this actually includes all of Waco. 68% McCain

[minionofmidas]

I started out on the premise that an 18-18 Texas oughtn't to be hard if you ignore Blacks' VRA rights, but I got greedy. Guess it's no coincidence that I share a (real life) first name with one former Congressman Frost.

Martin is a name used in Germany?

Ever heard of Luther?

[minionofmidas]

I meant Luther Vandross, of course.

[minionofmidas]

In apologies for my Demmymander, here's "Civic Exercise" Texas, ie something similar to what a redistricting commission might draw if it existed (and given the recent Florida and California initiatives, who knows what the future has in store on that front?) Except they'd do a much better job at dividing Houston Blacks from Houston Hispanics, and maybe the Lubbock-Amarillo thing (why is that "never going to happen in real life", Sam?) Oh, and they'd baulk at the donut I drew around San Antonio, but it was the most reasonable thing to do with the territory I had left.

This has - 8 Hispanic seats (3 South Texas, 2 San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, El Paso), two of them not entirely unwinnable for Republicans (Farenthold's and one in San Antonio), 2 Black seats (Houston and Dallas), 3 White Democrats (2 Austin and Fort Worth) and one coalition seat in Houston that it's really hard to tell who'll win it except that they'll be a Democrat.
Oh, also one seat where, had it existed last decade, Nick Lampson would presumably have lost in 2010 but definitely not before, and one marginal McCain seat in Dallas that demographic change will do in before the decade's out.



CD1 (blue) Tyler, Marshall, Longview, Nacogdoches
70 - 9 - 19 (format is white - hispanic - black where over 5 - asian where over 5)
69-30 McCain
Gohmert

CD2 (dark green) Texarkana to Dallas exurbs
78 - 8 - 12
69-30 McCain
Hall

CD3 (purple) North Tarrant to Denison
81 - 10
66-33 McCain (Denton town is ridiculously liberal btw, wtf is up with that?)
Open, right?

CD4 (red) most of Collin County
77 - 10 - 5 - 8
62-37 McCain
Sam Johnson (probably)

time for the DFW map



CD5 (yellow) Northeast Tarrant, much of Denton Counties
79 - 10 - 5 - 5
65-35 McCain
Burgess

CD6 (bluegreen) Northwest Dallas County, bleeding over the line into Denton and Collin
56 - 22 - 15 - 7
52-47 McCain
Marchant

CD7 (grey) Northeast Dallas County
67 - 16 - 8 - 9
56-43 McCain
No idea whereabouts in Dallas Hensarling might be living but it could be here. Sessions also has to be living in Dallas someplace.

CD8 (lavender) South Dallas. That ugly spike is sort of unavoidable.
28 - 24 - 46
78-22 Obama
One would hope Eddie Johnson lives here

CD9 (teal) Central Dallas and points west
34 - 50 - 10 - 6
57-42 Obama
Open, or maybe Sessions

CD10 (pink) Fort Worth
48 - 28 - 20
56-43 Obama
Granger (?)

CD11 (light green) suburbs and exurbs southeast, south and west of Fort Worth
81 - 10 - 5
67-32 McCain
Open (unless Granger's home is here after all. She'd probably run here, anyways.)

CD12 (light blue) Wichita Falls, Abilene, and points south to the Colorado and north into the entire eastern half of the Panhandle (it's outside the picture, but it's the three eastern columns of counties except in the northernmost row, where it's only the easternmost county.)
78 - 15 - 5
76-23 McCain
Thornberry

CD13 (tan) Lubbock and Amarillo
63 - 28 - 6
73-26 McCain
Neugebauer

CD14 (golden brown) Killeen, Temple, Georgetown
68 - 15 - 13
59-39 McCain
Open

CD15 (orange) Waco and points northeast around Corsicana, including more genuinely suburban territory than I would have liked
72 - 14 -12
66-33 McCain
Barton

CD16 (green) Bryan, Huntsville, Lufkin
68 - 13 - 16
66-33 McCain
Flores

CD17 (slate) Beaumont/Port Arthur, Galveston/Texas City, Baytown
62 - 14 - 22
58-41 McCain
Open

CD18 (yellow) Montgomery County and some northeast Harris burbs
78 - 12 - 7
71-28 McCain
Brady, Poe (just about - he lives in Humble which is the westernmost area in the Harris portion here)

time for the Harris map



CD19 (that faintly disgusting undefinable shade between green and brown) Northwest Harris County
66 - 18 - 9
64-35 McCain
*Probably* open

CD20 (pale pink) North Houston
18 - 46 - 32
76-24 Obama
Gene Green may or may not live here, I've no idea

CD21 (maroon) Centralish Houston
30 - 40 - 23
66-33 Obama
Jackson-Lee may or may not live here, I've no idea

CD22 (brown) West Houston Whiteyland
65 - 21 - 6 - 8
62-37 McCain
Culberson, I suppose?

CD23 (light teal) either side of the Harris-Fort Bend line
24 - 26 - 36 - 13. Wow at the Asian %age here. Yes, it's a coalition seat strictly speaking, not a Black seat.
70-29 Obama
Al Green

CD24 (purple) based around Pasadena
47 - 39 - 8 - 5
56-43 McCain
Open

CD25 (rosé) Brazoria, outer Fort Bend, suburban Galveston County
65 - 21 - 8 - 7
66-33 McCain
Paul, probably Olson (though he might be in Al Green's seat too)

CD26 (dark grey) a Coastal Bend seat based around Victoria, with all sorts of areas that don't quite belong thrown in around the edges
58 - 32 - 7
65-34 McCain
Open

CD27 (another tealish shade) North Austin, Round Rock
63 - 21 - 9 - 7
59-39 Obama
McCaul, Carter. Lol.

time for the San Antonio/Austin map



CD28 (lavender) South Austin, San Marcos
57 - 31 - 7
62-36 Obama
Doggett

CD29 (another weird shade) a donut with two fillings. Suburban Bexar, White Flight Comal County, a lot of Hill Country
63 - 31
65-34 McCain
Open unless one of the San Antonio Republicans actually lives here. Smith should run here, anyways.

CD30 (red) East San Antonio
41 - 47 - 9
52-47 Obama
Smith supposedly lives in San Antonio, and so does Canseco. No idea where, but one wonders if Canseco might hold this one down.

CD31 (yellow) West San Antonio. Seeing how exactly two CDs fit within those ring roads, it'd be  criminal not to. Split it north-south instead and the map looks even nicer and the northern seat is marginally McCain, but also marginally majority white. Which wouldn't fly with a commission reading it's VRA caselaw, not with the southern seat next door quite packed with Hispanics.
27 - 65 - 5
59-39 Obama
Don't know which district Gonzalez lives in, either.

time for the South Texas map



CD32 (orange) Corpus to Harlingen
27 - 69
54-45 Obama
Farenthold

CD33 (blue) Brownsville to McAllen
12 - 87
68-32 Obama
Hinojosa

CD34 (green) Mission to Del Rio
8 - 91
71-29 Obama
Cuellar

CD35 (purple) Permian, San Angelo, some Hill Country, Trans-Pecos even though it hurt to let it go
53 - 41
71 - 28 McCain
Conaway

CD36 (not shown) El Paso
18 - 77
65-34 Obama
Reyes

[minionofmidas]

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah right, sorry. Overlooked that McCain percentage somehow.

[minionofmidas]

I think it is probably safe to say at this point that Texas will not use the same map through the decade.