US House Redistricting: Missouri

[muon2]

Since I'm in MO for Christmas, I took a stab at a map. The districts are equal within 25 based on the DRA estimates, and CD 1 stays majority black. CD 5 stays solidly Dem, the cores of CD 3 and 9 are combined with roughly equal parts from each old district. Other incumbents should have secure GOP districts. Perhaps, if there is a compromise between the legislature and governor, it might be along these lines.

[muon2]

Why not just put all of the city into one district?

Based on the estimates, that would drop the black percentage below 50%. With the big increase in size due to the loss of a district, it just barely exceeds 50% as I drew it.

[muon2]

It is protected by the VRA because it can be safely expected to be represented by the candidate of choice of its Black residents. That means it needs to remain that way. 50% has nothing to do with anything.

True, but that also means that drawing it to be 45% black probably works fine.

The problem is with challenges, and who drew the map. A map drawn by Dems to favor them would be less likely to be challenged if a district is only 45% black, especially if the reason was to help improve the performance of a neighboring district. Also, before Bartlett last year, minority districts less than 50% were OK. Now they are permitted, but don't qualify as a section 2 district.

If the map is drawn by the GOP to favor them, a challenge from the Dems could easily be based on a failure to create a majority-minority district when such a district could exist. That's a key to a challenge under Gingles, and the GOP is more likely to avoid that challenge by scrupulously making the districts over 50%. Since the GOP legislature is drawing the map to send to the Gov, I assume they would want to avoid a subsequent challenge in federal court from an external group.

[muon2]

Put it in the 2nd district then. That 3rd is disgusting.

I don't think the legislature would do that. I put together the 2008 presidential vote for St Louis County. That plus st Louis city make up just under 2 CDs in the remap. Without St Charles to offset the Dem vote, I don't see the legislature putting out a new CD 2 that's basically just St Louis County with part of the city and only a bit outside the county.

[muon2]

I doubt the Republicans would put Carnahan's portion of St. Louis County into the former MO-09; it would be safer for them to put it into MO-08, since the district is more Republican and Emerson is extremely well-liked for whatever reason.

Here's what I came up with:

State:



St. Louis area:



- MO-01 is 49% black, takes in all of St. Louis now.
- MO-02 takes in some parts of St. Louis County from MO-01 and MO-03, and adds a few of the heavily-Republican counties to the west to compensate.
- MO-03 is parts of the former MO-09, MO-08, and MO-03. Luetkemeyer would go here.
- MO-04 adds Columbia and some counties to the northeast and southeast; probably makes it somewhat more Democratic, but the Democrats aren't getting that district back.
- MO-05 is all of Jackson County and a bit of the suburbs north of Kansas City.
- MO-06 stretches across the north third of the state now. MO-07
- MO-07 is pretty much the same.
- MO-08 takes in the St. Louis County part of MO-03, but should remain pretty Republican.

At a guess, I'd say MO-01 is about 75-25 Dem, MO-05 about 60-40 Dem, and the remaining districts about 60-40 Republican.

Edit: Did a rough calculation of MO-04, it would be 57-43 McCain.

It's an interesting alternative to my version combining CDs 3 and 9. It looks like you've put more heavily Dem areas (70% D) from St Louis county than the city wards (60% D) that I kept out of CD 1. My rough estimate is that your CD 2 would be 52% R in 2008 and CD 8 would be 54% R. I had my CD 2 up to 55% and CD 3 at 54% R.

[muon2]

The Senate should be considering its version of a map tomorrow.