US House Redistricting: Missouri

[freepcrusher]

being an evil genius, i wanted to take Cass County where the person who unseated Skelton lives, and glue it next to a bunch of heavily black precincts in KC.

[freepcrusher]

imagine what a Skelton-Cleaver primary would be like.

[freepcrusher]

i know the new map is almost set in stone, but does anyone see my districts? I remember someone telling me that if Ike Skelton had survived 2010, they would have drawn this map to dismember the district.

Statewide View



Kansas City


St Louis



Under this map; Emerson, Long, Graves, and Cleaver get to keep 100% of their old districts. They merely expand in size. To gain adequate population, they add in territory from the current 4th district. The remaining parts of the 4th district are added to the northern and western areas of the current 9th district and renamed the 4th. The southern and eastern areas of the old 9th take in the northern and western areas of the 2nd and the remaining parts of the 2nd take in the St. Louis County portion of the 1st plus a small amount of northern St. Louis City. The rest of old CD 1 is attached to the current CD 3, so Canrahan actually keeps 100% of the district and probably gets safer by adding more of the city of St. Louis.

1st District
Incumbent: Todd Akin
Race % 60.4 White, 32.2 Black
This is a district that takes in some republican suburbs from old CD 2 but it is outvoted by black precincts from old CD 1. Obama probably got in the high 50s or low 60s. Akin barely lives in this district, so he may very well run in the new 2nd district. If he does that, a democrat from the legislature may run here.

2nd District
OPEN
Race % 90.7% White
See Above

3rd District
Race 73.5% White, 19.5% Black
Incumbent: Bill Clay Jr vs. Russ Carnahan
This district takes in almost all of St Louis County and the remaining parts of the old CD 3. Clay and Carnahan would face off in a primary here. Carnahan would love this district, because a lot of Clay’s black constituency is gone, giving him the opportunity to win the primary and become even more entrenched. Obama probably got 65-70 percent here.

4th District
Race % 87.5 White
Incumbent: Blaine Luetkemeyer
This is probably somewhere between an R+8 and R+12 district. Safe Republican

5th District.
Race % 66.6 White, 21.5 Black
Incumbent: Emmanuel Cleaver vs. Vicky Hartzler
This would be a fun matchup to watch. Can Hartzler establish herself as a giant killer by defeating another entrenched incumbent? In this race, she takes on Emmanuel Cleaver (chairman of the black caucus). In her favor, this district is probably only a D+5 as opposed to the D+10 it used to be. However, I still think Cleaver would probably win this district as many of the urban voters from Kansas City would be turned off by the antiquated views of Hartzler on certain issues.

6th District
Race % 88.3 White
Incumbent: Sam Graves
As said before, this district stays the same only it takes in territory from old CD 4.

7th District
Race % 89.8 White
Incumbent: Billy Long
See 6th District

8th District
Race % 91.3 White
Incumbent: Jo Ann Emerson
See 6th District

[freepcrusher]

why did Skelton never run for higher office? He probably would have been a good candidate for Senate to replace Eagleton back in 86.

[freepcrusher]

Partisan move by Nixon.  Of course the map favors Republicans-- Missouri is a Republican state.  We earned our 6-3 majority in the house delegation, and our huge majorities in the state legislature in Democrat drawn districts.  It's not the legislative Republicans' fault that 48% of the states Democrat voters are packed into just 3 jurisdictions. 

but why do democrats like to segregate themselves into districts. Are they intolerant of opposing viewpoints?

[freepcrusher]

but why do democrats like to segregate themselves into districts. Are they intolerant of opposing viewpoints?

Minorities tend to live with other minorities, college kids and academia all have to live in close proximity to a university, and low income people can't afford expensive suburban real estate.

The Democrats don't have anyone else in the South.

Krazen makes a good point. However, Missouri is not necessarily a southern state. We've been over this before in another forum and the conclusion is that Missouri has parts of the state that are both southern/ozark and areas that are plains state/midwestern.

[freepcrusher]

i hate this map. Is there some excuse someone can find in it to take it to the DOJ?