Hypothetical: McCain enters race

[zachman]

What would happen to the Presidential race if John McCain were to enter as a third party candidate, and establishes support for his new third party?

I think it would help Bush in one of these two ways:

1. The results go to the House of Representatives.
2. The young vote and the Independent vote goes from Kerry to McCain.

The third factor which is likely to lead to the first factor is polling. When people see either Kerry or Bush behind McCain in their state, the support will be transfered to McCain.

I'm going to construct a map of what the outcome would look like.

[zachman]

I can't figure out how to posta map. Here is my initial predicion if the popular vote is:
Bush 35%
Kerry 35%
McCain 30%

The electoral result would be:
Bush- 284
Kerry- 193
McCain- 61

The McCain states are: Washington, Montana, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont, New Hampshire, Alaska, Delaware and Maine.

Bush would win the following states won by Gore in 2000: Oregon, New Mexico and Connecticut.

[© tweed]

Probably 60% of McCain's votes would come from Bush, 25% from  Kerry, and 15% from people who wouldn't have voted.

McCain wouldn't win any states outside of AZ.

PV:

Kerry 40%
Bush 35%
McCain 25%

[dunn]

close to 1992 BUSH-CLINTON-PEROT but McCain wins couple of states

             PV%           EV
Bush      37              237
Kerry     40              287
McCain  20                14  (AZ+ME)
Nader     2                  -

[zachman]

I would assume that Nader would be forced out of the race. McCain's support would come heaviest in the states where Perot did well.

[© tweed]

I would assume that Nader would be forced out of the race. McCain's support would come heaviest in the states where Perot did well.

Nader would still run but wouldn't get many votes.

[Reaganfan]

McCain would not do that, he will wait until after Bush's second term.

[zachman]

This is hypothetical, Reaganfan. It would transform this election though, and I want to know your take on it.

[NHPolitico]

Probably 60% of McCain's votes would come from Bush, 25% from  Kerry, and 15% from people who wouldn't have voted.

McCain wouldn't win any states outside of AZ.

PV:

Kerry 40%
Bush 35%
McCain 25%

A couple of Summer 2001 polls showed that a Bush-Gore-McCain 2004 race would be terrific news for Bush.

[© tweed]

Probably 60% of McCain's votes would come from Bush, 25% from  Kerry, and 15% from people who wouldn't have voted.

McCain wouldn't win any states outside of AZ.

PV:

Kerry 40%
Bush 35%
McCain 25%

A couple of Summer 2001 polls showed that a Bush-Gore-McCain 2004 race would be terrific news for Bush.

Most of those had it a Bush 45-Gore 40-McCain 20

[angus]

Bush 261
Kerry 269
McCain 8

[Gustaf]

Bush 261
Kerry 269
McCain 8

What state does McCain win? Why not Arizona? 8 EVs...South Carolina???

[Ben.]

What would happen to the Presidential race if John McCain were to enter as a third party candidate, and establishes support for his new third party?

I think it would help Bush in one of these two ways:

1. The results go to the House of Representatives.
2. The young vote and the Independent vote goes from Kerry to McCain.

The third factor which is likely to lead to the first factor is polling. When people see either Kerry or Bush behind McCain in their state, the support will be transfered to McCain.

I'm going to construct a map of what the outcome would look like.

Map?

[dunn]

[quote
Nader would still run but wouldn't get many votes.

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Has anyone seen how many states Nader is likely to appear on the ballot? He has got to spend a ton of money and coordinate his petitioners extremely well to appear on enough states to be meaningful. Perhaps Richard Winger at Ballot Access News has some insights and data. Without a party to support him, I think he is going to find it very tough to mount a truly national campaign. In short, I don't think he is going to matter much anyway.

41

[© tweed]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Has anyone seen how many states Nader is likely to appear on the ballot? He has got to spend a ton of money and coordinate his petitioners extremely well to appear on enough states to be meaningful. Perhaps Richard Winger at Ballot Access News has some insights and data. Without a party to support him, I think he is going to find it very tough to mount a truly national campaign. In short, I don't think he is going to matter much anyway.

If he only polls .25% in a superclose state it could make the difference.  If Bush wins Ohio by 300 votes (which is NOT an exaggeration after what happened last time), he could be the difference.