Minnesota in 2004

[Michael Z]

Nader won 5% in 2000. Where will they go?

Nader still might enter the race. I fear that would only help Bush' Re-Election bid. Nader helped the Republicans in 2000.

From politics1.com:

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Still, I don't think Nader will do as well in 2004. Three years ago he attracted a big protest vote from Democrats who felt alienated by Gore; this time around stopping Bush will be more important to them, and they'll get behind whoever the Democratic candidate is. At least that's how I see it.

[Michael Z]

I think Nader will do better when Dean tries to move to the middle after the primaries.

You're underestimating Bush's unpopularity in some quarters; the kind of people who would usually vote for a Green Party candidate (we're talking ultra-liberals, environmentalists, etc) absolutely despise him, and would vote for whoever they think is most likely to defeat Bush. I doubt they'll really care where the Dem. candidate stands, even assuming Dean suddenly moves to the middle. They just want Bush out of the White House.

I don't think the anti-Bush vote will win Dean the election, but I do believe it will nullify the threat posed by Nader.