Hashemite's African election thread

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White people don't care about elections in countries filled with browns, but I care because they're important, and as Cote d'Ivoire is showing/showed, can lead to civil wars. More information can be found on my blog, but I'll kick off this thread/Hashemite's echo room with some maps of recent stuff in West Africa.

Importantly, the first round in Cote d'Ivoire. Given that both versions of runoff results have been made up out of thin air, they don't have data for that. If they ever do make up results for that given that I doubt electoral analysis is a priority when you're killing people.



A bit older, and less noteworthy, is Guinea. The first free elections since, uh, ever? The good guy, Alpha Condé, an old opposition dude, won. The swindling, Dallein Diallo, lost. This map is also a good demographic map



because, as per my blog:

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There are elections in the Comoros at the end of the month which could be fun, and 2011 most notably has Cape Verde (yay), Nigeria, Benin, Madagascar, Liberia and jokes like the CAR and Chad.

I should get around to posting some maps of Cape Verdean elections, given that I had found data not too long ago.

[Silent Hunter]

A truly welcome thread.

[big bad fab]

Madagascar may be fascinating if "everybody" is in and IF it's at least partly clean.

Ethiopia is a bit old now, but it could be interesting too .

And I barely dare to ask for Kenya

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So, the CEI, to my pleasant surprised, uploaded its results of the Ivorian election:

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This thread confirms that people don't care about elections in places with black people, but I personally do.

I managed to do Cote d'Ivoire by department or some sort. It's kind of hazy since the CEI doesn't care much about them and instead groups some of them together for its reporting purposes. But it's interesting.



and the first round;



I could explain patterns if there's proof that somebody other than me cares.

[Хahar 🤔]

I do care, and I'd like to think you know that.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Definitely this is interesting; nice work! What are the patterns you mention?

[Insula Dei]

Definitely this is interesting; nice work! What are the patterns you mention?

[Psychic Octopus]

Definitely this is interesting; nice work! What are the patterns you mention?

[Nhoj]

I care about african elections in fact they often interest me more than some of the "important " western elections. These maps I assume are of Quattaras win and not Gbagos changed results in favor of himself?

[Novelty]

I'm lurking in this thread and soaking everything up.  It's just that I don't have anything to contribute.  I'm surprised though that the north south divide is present in IC as well.  Is it a feature of all coastal Western African countries from Nigeria to Liberia?

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Definitely this is interesting; nice work! What are the patterns you mention?

The bottom line is that it's all ethnic so they're rather easy to work out if you know the major tribes. In the first round, it was Ouattara (northwestern Malinkes and Senoufos/Muslims) vs. Bedie (Baoule) vs. Gbagbo (everyone else) vs. Mabri (Yacoubas). First rounds in French West Africa usually see a bunch of ethnic-based/regionally-based candidate while runoffs provide unholy alliances between tribes to beat another tribe. That's what happened in Guinea between the Peul and Malinke/everyone else. Emphasis on unholy in the case of Bedie/Ouattara's alliance, given that they're deadly rivals and have hated each other in the past and probably still do. Yet, the Baoules strongly backed Ouattara as can be seen from the transition to darkest green to darkest orange. Given that Bedie and Ouattara both have roots as houphouetistes, and that Gbagbo has always been an opponent to the Houphouet-Boigny system, it facilitates it a bit.

It is interesting that Gbagbo doesn't seem to have done all that well in his native Bete areas. I think that's more a result of the ethnic lines in southwestern Cote d'Ivoire being so muddled up with the migration of the Baoules from the centre to the coastal regions (like Bas-Sassandra, which Bedie won). His best group seems to have been the Agnis and Atties, which are Akan like the Baoule, but there's probably bad blood between the two. As for Abidjan, like a lot of major West African cities, it's a toss salad where all different groups migrate to and live together (Gbagbo won it like 51-49 or so overall). And where riots/civil wars start after a disputed vote.

These are the CEI-Ouattara's results, Gbagbo-ConCouncil just had the result of two northern 90%+ Ouattara regions voided on shaky grounds of fraud. Of course there is some fraud, paternalism and coercion because of the ethnic structure, but one has to be dishonest to think it only happened in the Ouattara regions and not in the south.

[Novelty]

Were there electoral boundary changes in IC between the first round and the run off?  There seem to be more "units" (whatever they are called in IC) in the first round.

[Bacon King]

Were there electoral boundary changes in IC between the first round and the run off?  There seem to be more "units" (whatever they are called in IC) in the first round.

As Hashe said, for whatever reason the government combines some of them when reporting results.

Also, I've just discovered this thread and do hope you continue. I really enjoy your posts and blog entries, Hashe.

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Were there electoral boundary changes in IC between the first round and the run off?  There seem to be more "units" (whatever they are called in IC) in the first round.

As Hashe said, for whatever reason the government combines some of them when reporting results.

Here's what the CEI seems to have done: They're not reported by department, but by some reporting centre which tend to be cities whose territory corresponds to one or more department(s).

Anyway, there's an election in the Comoros soon which might be interesting; with the two main candidates representing the 2 major political factions on the islands; eg. the centralist pro-President faction and the local islands federalists. But aside from that, I might post some map of older elections.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It's quite good that someone covers it, but really please, here there can be threads for a locality here or there in UK. Maybe each African country can have its thread.

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It's quite good that someone covers it, but really please, here there can be threads for a locality here or there in UK. Maybe each African country can have its thread.

That would be quite useless since this forum doesn't have the level of interest for African elections than there is for western elections.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It's quite good that someone covers it, but really please, here there can be threads for a locality here or there in UK. Maybe each African country can have its thread.

That would be quite useless since this forum doesn't have the level of interest for African elections than there is for western elections.

Well, it's not me to tell you what you have to do, as I said it's already quite good that someone does it, but personally I just think that no matter the interest it can have, each country can deserve its thread, which could in the same time rise some interest. And if it effectively rises some interest or takes too much place here even a board/sub-board for non-European international elections could be legitimate, no matter if the activity of that one wouldn't be big, it wouldn't be the 1st one here.