Betty Ireland is running for Governor of West Virginia
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  Betty Ireland is running for Governor of West Virginia
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Author Topic: Betty Ireland is running for Governor of West Virginia  (Read 6622 times)
redcommander
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« on: December 30, 2010, 08:22:11 PM »

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8197/wvgov-ireland-will-run

Now they just need Shelley Moore Capito to go against Manchin, and that would be a very strong ticket.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2010, 08:36:07 PM »

Hmm. Not sure of her chances on this one, but it's a lucky break she'll very likely be going against Tomblin, who I doubt will have a very strong record in all of two years.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2010, 09:07:54 PM »

It's more likely Capito runs for re-election than challenges Manchin. If she wanted to run for the Senate, she would've done it this year, when the Republicans pulled out the chair for her.
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redcommander
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2010, 11:00:04 PM »

It's more likely Capito runs for re-election than challenges Manchin. If she wanted to run for the Senate, she would've done it this year, when the Republicans pulled out the chair for her.

She didn't want the ethical issue about running for Senate and reelection to her House seat at the same time though.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2010, 11:01:46 PM »

That reminds me - what's the Democratic bench in WV, anyway? The only ones I really know are Tomblin and Goodwin.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2010, 11:57:01 PM »

Natalie Tennant, the Secretary of State is also a potential Democratic candidate.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2011, 12:01:46 AM »

Natalie Tennant, the Secretary of State is also a potential Democratic candidate.

Ah, yes, I forgot about her. I'd actually venture to say she might be the strongest candidate in the end, myself - just a hunch.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2011, 09:16:12 AM »

don't know if tomblin is popular, but I guess tennant is very popular. WV loves its politicians.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2011, 12:25:00 PM »

Great news, as this'll hopefully push Capito towards the Senate instead.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2011, 09:42:23 PM »

It's more likely Capito runs for re-election than challenges Manchin. If she wanted to run for the Senate, she would've done it this year, when the Republicans pulled out the chair for her.

She didn't think Manchin could be beaten, so she didn't want to run. Now that we know that Manchin could have been beaten, she may be more likely to run. Hard to guess at the moment, but she does have aspiration beyond the House.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2011, 10:25:41 PM »

I would vote for Manchin over Capito, because he's one of very few strong conservative Democrats.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2011, 01:43:04 PM »

It's more likely Capito runs for re-election than challenges Manchin. If she wanted to run for the Senate, she would've done it this year, when the Republicans pulled out the chair for her.

She didn't think Manchin could be beaten, so she didn't want to run. Now that we know that Manchin could have been beaten, she may be more likely to run. Hard to guess at the moment, but she does have aspiration beyond the House.

Except for the fact that it's unlikely to find such a set of favorable circumstances as this year.
Not to mention that West Virginia seems very fond of its incumbents.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2011, 02:04:02 PM »

Now that we know that Manchin could have been beaten

No we don't. We know that the polls showed him in serious trouble at one point, but we don't know if the polls actually reflected reality. The final result wasn't even close, which should give pause for thought.

Of course back then he wasn't a Senator with a record to run against.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2011, 05:20:38 PM »

isn't capito pro-choice? isn't she a moderate republican? the difference between her an manchin is minimal xD. he is more conservative on social issues than her.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2011, 06:55:35 PM »

isn't capito pro-choice? isn't she a moderate republican? the difference between her an manchin is minimal xD. he is more conservative on social issues than her.
Exactly. Which is why Manchin is a much better representative of the people than Capito. Not that I don't like Capito, I just like Manchin better Smiley.
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cowboy300
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« Reply #15 on: January 02, 2011, 07:58:05 PM »

I'm not sure how strong Ireland is.  She'll have been out of office for 4 years in 2012 and beat a 90 year old in 2004.  I always assumed that Capito wanted to be governor.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2011, 05:24:41 AM »

Now that we know that Manchin could have been beaten

No we don't. We know that the polls showed him in serious trouble at one point, but we don't know if the polls actually reflected reality. The final result wasn't even close, which should give pause for thought.

Of course back then he wasn't a Senator with a record to run against.

All I can say is that Raese, a horrible candidate whose campaign made a number of terrible missteps, lost by 9 points. It's certainly not ridiculous to think that a real campaign mounted by a credible, well-liked Republican could have made the difference.

If you seriously think that Raese was up by a decent margin at one point (and I do), you have to further believe that Capito would have posted those kind of numbers or better at the same time. And if Capito was posting those kind of numbers or better, it'd have given Democrats pause as to whether or not to spend the money they did on Manchin.

Of course, it's possible that lightning could have struck twice -- that Capito's campaign could have been derailed by a Craigslist ad looking for hicks. By the same token, that kind of attack wouldn't have worked as well on her, since she wasn't the same kind of out-of-state phony Raese was.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2011, 05:31:06 AM »

Rease lost by 10.1 points.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2011, 05:34:23 AM »


Everything I said still stands -- there's no significant difference in the analysis caused by a single point.
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2011, 02:41:00 PM »

That reminds me - what's the Democratic bench in WV, anyway? The only ones I really know are Tomblin and Goodwin.

Believe it or not, Demcorats have supermajorities in both WV State legislative chambers. They control the WV Senate 28-6 and the House 65-35. Its amazing how popular state Democrats are in WV. The GOP bench, besides Capito, Ireland and Raese is weak. Democrats will find somebody.
Even Oliviero, despite the national GOP wave, came within 1 point of beating McKinley in the 1st district.
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« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2011, 02:47:43 PM »

Considering who her opponent was, Ireland's 4 point victory wasn't too impressive.
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redcommander
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« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2011, 12:41:45 AM »

Considering who her opponent was, Ireland's 4 point victory wasn't too impressive.

Yes but that was before Obama became President though. The Democrats have lost a lot of strength by West Virginian standards since he was elected.
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Frodo
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2011, 08:14:50 PM »

Believe it or not, Demcorats have supermajorities in both WV State legislative chambers. They control the WV Senate 28-6 and the House 65-35. Its amazing how popular state Democrats are in WV.

How conservative are these Democrats, though?  Is this basically Arkansas with a mining union?  
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