US House Redistricting: Georgia

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

A slight alteration to Bacon King's plan gets the district up to 56.9% McCain.

What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included?  Kingston would probably prefer a district with a higher probability of remaing safe in 10 years in the event that Savannah takes off economically and attracts more out-of-state migrants, so I was wondering whether the rural counties further inland would be a better fit (assuming the Republicans can make up the difference elsewhere to take down Barrow).

Thanks, btw; I just got into amateur redistricting (I still have a lot more to learn, not to mention precint-level data to acquire), and your maps have been very helpful.

In my plan, the Lowndes County portion has a population of 56,923 and voted 73.4% for McCain.

[Bacon King]

What's the population and Republican voting percentage of the portion of Lowndes County you included?

That part of Lowndes County has 48,463 people, is 64.2% white, and voted 61.2% for McCain. Only the two precincts on the district boundary east of Valdosta proper voted for Obama (which I included in the district for aesthetic reasons and to get the population up to quota without needing another county split).

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Unless the map is a gerrymandered monstrosity I don't see how Barrow can go down without pushing his district out of Chatham entirely. I mean, it's entirely possible that the GOP could play it safe with a 9-5 split (or target Bishop instead, but that's a lot riskier for Austin Scott's district plus there's potential VRA legal issues). If they want to target Barrow though, and they do of course, it can't be done without pushing his district out of Chatham.

And yeah, Kingston would definitely be safer with more Republican counties like Wayne, Brantley, Pierce, etc., but he's insisted on keeping Moody AFB in his district, which is in the northeast corner of Lowndes. I'm assuming he's eyeing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as his next step towards Chairman of Appropriations, which he wants really badly.

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Of course, and thank you! Always great to have more people involved around here. If you haven't discovered it yet, Dave's redistricting app is the perfect tool to use. It has precinct-level Census 2010 data for every state, and precinct-level election data for about half the states.

[krazen1211]

Legislative maps!

http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/en-US/default.aspx

On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks

Apparently he's the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, as well as co-chair of the joint Senate-House Budgetary Responsibility Oversight Committee.

[dpmapper]

Legislative maps!

http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/en-US/default.aspx

On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks

The GOP was pretty gentle on the senate map.  Hooks is the only Dem they seem to have destroyed (the last white Dem outside the ATL metro, no?).  They also have two swing seats around northern Atlanta (6 & 40; currently split between parties) even though they could have tilted them further pretty easily. 

[krazen1211]

Tough to see.

The  southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs.

I don't see how the Democrats hold that one.

Doug Stoner is also white.

http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21


Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats.

[dpmapper]

Tough to see.

The  southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs.

I don't see how the Democrats hold that one.

Doug Stoner is also white.

http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21


Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats.

OK, so D6 was solid Dem and now is a swingy seat, slight lean R - I mapped it in DRA and it went about 50-51% McCain.  D40 was also about 51% McCain; dunno how safe it was previously.  I guess this means Republicans gain 1.5 seats... just on the cusp of a veto-proof majority. 

PS.  You missed the "outside the Atlanta metro" part of my post. 

[krazen1211]

Tough to see.

The  southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs.

I don't see how the Democrats hold that one.

Doug Stoner is also white.

http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21


Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats.

OK, so D6 was solid Dem and now is a swingy seat, slight lean R - I mapped it in DRA and it went about 50-51% McCain.  D40 was also about 51% McCain; dunno how safe it was previously.  I guess this means Republicans gain 1.5 seats... just on the cusp of a veto-proof majority. 

PS.  You missed the "outside the Atlanta metro" part of my post. 

Ah, yes, I see that. I was just posting a general musing about the map rather than any specific response to your post.

I do not know  why the Democrats did not sent the black areas of Dekalb County north into the white liberal areas of Dekalb County rather than south into Newton, Rockdale, and Henry Counties. Those areas could have been cracked. It seems like District 42 could have been vaporized.

[lowtech redneck]

And yeah, Kingston would definitely be safer with more Republican counties like Wayne, Brantley, Pierce, etc., but he's insisted on keeping Moody AFB in his district, which is in the northeast corner of Lowndes. I'm assuming he's eyeing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as his next step towards Chairman of Appropriations, which he wants really badly.

 If you haven't discovered it yet, Dave's redistricting app is the perfect tool to use. It has precinct-level Census 2010 data for every state, and precinct-level election data for about half the states.

Thanks!  And yeah, I didn't realize where Moody AFB was (I kinda assumed it was near Hunter Army Airfield); it seems that Kingston's ambitions might be putting the long-term electoral security of his district at risk. 

[lowtech redneck]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

I try to keep the deviations below 200. That can be quite difficult depending on the area, but it's usually possible. Personally, I wouldn't accept a deviation above 500 unless you're doing a state like Arkansas or West Virginia where county splits are prohibited.

[lowtech redneck]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

I try to keep the deviations below 200. That can be quite difficult depending on the area, but it's usually possible. Personally, I wouldn't accept a deviation above 500 unless you're doing a state like Arkansas or West Virginia where county splits are prohibited.

Ouch.  But wouldn't a percentage-based standard make more sense?  A 200-500 deviation would be more significant in some states than in others.  Basically, I'm wondering at what approximate percentage point it would be assumed on this forum that the final shape and composition of a CD would become noticably different after neighborhood by neighborhood trade-offs at the sub-precint level occur?  Would less than a percentage point in deviation-and less than half a percentage of surplus or deficit-be generally considered insufficient to that goal?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I keep deviations under 1,000; if it's really low, good, but without the ability to split precincts, it seems pointless to worry about getting lower deviations than that.

[Bacon King]

Given the limitations of Dave's redistricting app, what percentage of deviation between the populations of congressional districts is considered reasonable on this forum?  For instance, my current Georgia effort has deviations ranging from a 2,782 surplus in 4th District to a 2,703 deficit in the 13th District.

Georgia's current map was drawn with a maximum deviation of 0.01%; under 2010 census numbers that'd be plus or minus seventy people. When I draw my maps I keep deviation under 500 though I'll make it less than that if I can.

Also, everyone, as an aside, note that Georgia law limits splitting precincts between districts unless it's absolutely necessary for population equality- I only know of four precinct splits in the current map (one each in Lowndes, Newton, Henry, and Baldwin Counties).

[lowtech redneck]

Also, everyone, as an aside, note that Georgia law limits splitting precincts between districts unless it's absolutely necessary for population equality- I only know of four precinct splits in the current map (one each in Lowndes, Newton, Henry, and Baldwin Counties).

Ouch again.  Well, back to the old drawing board...

I think I'll follow JohnnyLongtorso's advice in general, though; anything more would probably be too frustrating for me right now.

[krazen1211]

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/08/22/john-barrow-moved-out-of-savannah-tom-price-gets-only-a-piece-of-buckhead-in-new-maps/


10-4, albiet not a very well done 10-4. BK did a very good job at matching the 1st draft.


Very very rough approximations.


CD-1: 55.5% McCain/54.2% Republican
CD-2: 41.3/40.7
CD-3: 64.6/63.8
CD-4: 24.1/28.7
CD-5: 12.9/16.8
CD-6: 59.9/62.7
CD-7: 60.2/63.5
CD-8: 61.5/57.9
CD-9: 72.8/68.8 (new)
CD-10: 59.2/58.6
CD-11: 64.2/65.2
CD-12: 55.6/54.4
CD-13: 37.0/39.4
CD-14: 69.8/65.7


CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in.

[Miles]

Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%.

[krazen1211]

He could try. Kingston held a district like that in the 1990s. In 1996 he won it by 36 points.

[Bacon King]

A few observations.

• The way the 11th District cuts into looks really awkward, and seems pointless because it only marginally shores up Price's district.
• See how Forsyth gets cut between two districts? The only reason that happened was to prevent one of that county's ambitious Republicans from winning the administration's super special Hall County district.
• Notice how the Hall County district with no incumbent gets to keep the same number, while the incumbent Tom Graves gets the new 14th district? I know who the mapmakers supported in the Graves vs. Hawkins primaries last year!
• Interesting to see Westmoreland getting Fort Benning, though it makes sense.

CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in.

They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into.

Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%.

Possibly. It's basically the same PVI as the new 12th, though, and in that district he won't have to race against an incumbent in unfamiliar territory.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You'd probably need a Jim Marshall type to win GA-01; Barrow's current district has terrible black turnout in off-years, but it was an Obama district in 2008.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And in an alternate universe where Barnes was elected Governor last year and the Democrats miraculously managed to hold the legislature the whole decade:




GA-01: Uber-GOP rural north Georgia seat. Graves wins easily.
GA-02: Uber-GOP exurban district. Appears to be open, should have an interesting primary.
GA-03: Broun doesn't live here, but he'd probably run here, it's not too different from his current seat minus Athens, he'd just have to move to suburban Augusta. 68% McCain.
GA-04: Kind of a leftovers district, it's basically exurbs + rural counties the Democrats wouldn't want in other seats, but it fits Gingrey pretty well with his current seat. 63.7% McCain and safe GOP.
GA-05: Another generic suburban Republican seat, 62.6% seat. Tom Price would most likely hold it.
GA-06: Here we have kind of a hodgepodge of types of Democrats, blacks and Hispanics in the more rundown parts of Cobb County, a chunk of Atlanta including the white liberal area, and blacks in southwest DeKalb. 44.1% black VAP. Kind of resembles Scott's current seat in demographics, but Lewis fits it better geographically. Over 70% Obama.
GA-07: Tons of blacks in Atlanta and southern Fulton + some generic rural counties. 54.6% black, yet only 65.9% Obama, still enough to be safe Dem, Scott no doubt wins.
GA-08: Blacks + white liberals in DeKalb + some suburban Republicans to dilute them. 52% black VAP, and Obama's best seat with 75.9%. Johnson wins.
GA-09: Here we start having fun. Athens adds the minority parts of Gwinnett and the Hispanics in northern DeKalb. 52.9% Obama because it still has to cut through some Republican parts, but Woodall would need a very strong personal vote to hang on.
GA-10: Augusta to Savannah. Probably Barrow's new seat. 54% Obama.
GA-11: 50.4% Obama, so not exactly a strong seat to guaranteed to be held in a year with bad black turnout. However this is also perfect for a Jim Marshall comeback if he has any interest, he could probably hold it in a year with no so great black turnout too due to blue dog appeal.
GA-12: Bishop's new seat, 42.9% black VAP, 52.5% Obama.
GA-13: 64.4% McCain pack seat, held by either Kingston or that guy who beat Marshall.
GA-14: The same, 62.8% McCain. If Kingston lives in Savannah he has to move obviously, but this seat would like him.

So 7-7 most likely, could go to 8-6 or 9-5 if the blacks stay home, but the GOP incumbents would require some serious skills to hold. GA-09 would also no doubt increase its D PVI as the decade went on, so even if Woodall hung on, he'd need a perfect storm every election since.

[krazen1211]

A few observations.

• The way the 11th District cuts into looks really awkward, and seems pointless because it only marginally shores up Price's district.
• See how Forsyth gets cut between two districts? The only reason that happened was to prevent one of that county's ambitious Republicans from winning the administration's super special Hall County district.
• Notice how the Hall County district with no incumbent gets to keep the same number, while the incumbent Tom Graves gets the new 14th district? I know who the mapmakers supported in the Graves vs. Hawkins primaries last year!
• Interesting to see Westmoreland getting Fort Benning, though it makes sense.

CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in.

They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into.

Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%.

Possibly. It's basically the same PVI as the new 12th, though, and in that district he won't have to race against an incumbent in unfamiliar territory.

Hmph. Why not put all of Forscythe into CD-7 then? It can use those areas and drop the Pickneyville area into a black district, and the combined black districts can then ditch the white areas in CD-13.

CD-13 is only 54% or so black and much less than CD-5 and CD-4. It certainly has room to be packed in.

You called it of course, but that Hall County district is quite irritating and uses strength that can be had in CD-12. Still the map likely gets the job done.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The other purpose of that Forsyth split is to solve the "Gwinnett problem" that isn't an issue now but would be in a decade. The demographic trend in that county is not favorable to the GOP. The other demographic trends mean they don't have to worry about anything statewide but a Gwinnett-based seat would be a problem in the future. The chunk of Forsyth negates that.

[lowtech redneck]

They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into.

Not enough to make a partisan difference within the decade....but you're probably right about the reasons.

(On a side note, I wonder why the black middle-class seems to be skipping northern Dekalb in favor of other areas?)

The Republicans seem to have done something similar (i.e. anticipating black migration) with the Five Forks Trickum area in Gwinnet, at the cost of keeping a few precints in the seventh district that favor Democrats now instead of in some hypothetical future.  They also incorporated several Democratic precints in Dekalb into the sixth district...I can't fathom their reasoning.

[krazen1211]

Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not?

The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796.




In any case, Deal has signed the legislative maps to increase the GOP majorities. Congressional map was tweaked to make minor changes.