UK local by-elections 2011

[ObserverIE]

Somerset, South Petherton

Lib Dem 53.6 (+13.3)
Con 37.9 (-5.4)
Green 4.3 (-2.9)
UKIP 4.2 (+4.2)

[joevsimp]

what the hell happenned there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Somerset County Council being less popular than death might be a reason.

Hmm... something about the letter 's'... see also Suffolk and Shropshire.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Three by-elections on 11th August:

ETON AND CASTLE, Windsor and Maidenhead, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is now a Government advisor on technology.  This is one of only five wards to cross the River Thames; the others are in Wiltshire and Gloucestershire.  There can be few wards with stronger royal connections; this ward contains Windsor Castle, the largest and longest-occupied castle in the world, a residence of the monarchy since the time of Henry I; the Windsor Home Park, a private Royal Park; and the Frogmore Mausoleum, final resting place for generations of the Royal Family.  However, the part of the ward in Windsor is essentially uninhabited, with the only buildings of any note being the castle itself and some commercial properties on the riverfront (including Windsor and Eton Riverside railway station, served from Waterloo).  The vast majority of the ward's electorate live on the Buckinghamshire side of the Thames in the tiny town of Eton, best known for and dominated by the famous public school.  As befits a ward with such strong Establishment connections, it's safe Conservative; between 2007 and May this year the Lib Dem and Labour votes were essentially static while the Conservatives found two hundred extra voters, producing a result of C 65.2 LD 27.8 Lab 7.0.  The by-election is contested by the three main parties plus UKIP.

FREMINGTON, North Devon; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor due to ill health.  Fremington is a village on the south bank of the Taw Estuary, about three miles west of Barnstaple; the ward also includes the village of Yelland to the west.  Not an awful lot can be read from May's result, which saw two very popular Independents dominating the poll and gaining the two seats from the Conservatives; the votes cast were Ind 1266/969/235 C 382/323 LD 184/95.  The by-election is contested by two Indies, the Tories and the Greens; the Tory candidate is one of the district councillors who lost his seat in May, while both Indies are current or ex-Fremington parish councillors.

ST PETERS, Islington, North London; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor who has been charged with benefit fraud; she denies the charge.  This ward is in the heart of Islington on the eastern side of Upper Street and Islington Green, and is served by Angel underground station on the Bank branch of the Northern Line, and by Essex Road underground railway station on the Finsbury Park-Moorgate branch (the only railway station in the UK which is only accessible by lift, fact fans).  The deprivation indices suggest that this is one of the more well-off wards in Islington.  Labour gained the ward from the Lib Dems in 2006, while May's result makes the ward look like a three-way marginal: Lab 34.4 LD 29.0 C 27.5 Grn 9.2; this is actually the strongest Conservative ward in Islington.  Candidates are Lab/LD/C/Grn/Ind, a second Independent having withdrawn after the close of nominations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we can safely predict that the red flag will fly over Eton & Castle.

As for St Peters, yeah, it's one of the most gentrified wards in Islington, though isn't without its poorer sections (because Islington is like that). A few decades back and it would have been a solidly working class area, of course. Labour gaining it in 2006 was a massive, massive shock; one of the defeated LibDem councillors was the borough's then-leader, the controversial and (allegedly!) tyrannical Steve Hitchins.

[joevsimp]

I think we can safely predict that the red flag will fly over Eton & Castle.

As for St Peters, yeah, it's one of the most gentrified wards in Islington, though isn't without its poorer sections (because Islington is like that). A few decades back and it would have been a solidly working class area, of course. Labour gaining it in 2006 was a massive, massive shock; one of the defeated LibDem councillors was the borough's then-leader, the controversial and (allegedly!) tyrannical Steve Hitchins.

Do you think current goings-on will affect the result?  Rainham is too close to that for my liking, let alone central Islington

[MaxQue]

In Fremington, there is no LD candidate. I suspect they are backing some "Independent" candidate.

Talking of Independents, the "declaration of interest" of the other councillor of that ward says he is a member of the Liberal Democrat party. So, he was elected as an Independent, is seating as a "New Wave Independent" (which are in coalition with LDs to run the council), but is a member of the Liberal Democrat party.

That is not the only strange ward in North Devon. Some wards than LDs held before 2011 had no LD candidates, but a full Independent ticket.

I'm cynical, pananoid or things like that really happens?
Is that common to make run people as independents when they are not?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You're good at this aren't you? Yes, it happens all the time in rural areas, although it isn't as common as it used to be.

[joevsimp]

You're good at this aren't you? Yes, it happens all the time in rural areas, although it isn't as common as it used to be.

It's more or less the norm on a number of parish/town councils, and I'd guess that on many of the independent-dominated districts in Wales and the North of Scotland, there's an element of this going on

[afleitch]

It's more or less the norm on a number of parish/town councils, and I'd guess that on many of the independent-dominated districts in Wales and the North of Scotland, there's an element of this going on

There's a great side-effect to STV; it makes it difficult for Independents to get in as their 'home turf' is now 3-4 times bigger than it was. 18 independents were ousted on Highland Council in 2007 for example and 10 lost out in Dumfries and Galloway.

Long may it continue.

[MaxQue]

You're good at this aren't you?

Well, I'm out of university for the summer, so, I have a lot of free time to fill.

[ObserverIE]

Windsor & Maidenhead, Eton & Castle

Lib Dem 47.4 (+19.6)
Con 41.5 (-23.7)
Lab 7.3 (+0.3)
UKIP 3.9 (+3.9)

Islington, St. Peters

Lab 52.5 (+18.1)
Lib Dem 19.8 (-9.2)
Con 17.1 (-10.4)
Green 7.9 (-1.3)
Ind 2.7 (+2.7)

North Devon, Fremington

Ind (WoodTurner) 46.9
Con 28.8 (+10.3)
Ind (TurnerWood) 18.3
Green 6.0 (+6.0)

Lib Dems polled 8.9 last time but didn't stand

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reports of a Labour hold in Islington.

Lab 7.3 (+0.3)

Forward, comrades. Forward!

[Insula Dei]

Windsor & Maidenhead, Eton & Castle

Lib Dem 47.4 (+19.6)
Con 41.5 (-23.7)
Lab 7.3 (+0.3)
UKIP 3.9 (+3.9)

That's quite a shocking result, no? (For what that's worth in local by-elections)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

CITY CENTRE, Edinburgh; caused by the resignation of an SNP councillor who is off to Harvard University.  The Old Town; the New Town; the Royal Mile; Calton Hill; Princes Street; Waverley Station; the Castle; the Military Tattoo; the Grassmarket; the Scottish Parliament; the Palace of Holyroodhouse.  All of them are in this ward and at this time of year all of them are completely overrun with tourists up for the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe (which these days is the tail that wags the dog).  If you have never been to Edinburgh for the Festival, go - you won't regret it.  Unless you actually live in this ward - many locals move out for the duration of the Festival and let their apartments out to Fringe performers at extortionate rates.  Canvassing in this ward is difficult at the best of times, with many flats accessed through stairwells accessed through other stairwells (one of which broke the ankle of the Labour candidate in a fall last week); together with the deluge of flyers from Fringe performers and the fact that many of the polling stations are Fringe venues, it has to be asked whether it was a good idea to hold the by-election in August at all.  Nevertheless, there are candidates from the four main parties together with the Greens and a strong Independent candidate running on a platform of scrapping the troubled under-construction Edinburgh tram system.  The 2007 results show a five-way marginal: first preferences were SNP 20.4 C 20.2 LD 19.9 Lab 18.0 Grn 17.0 SSP 1.8 Ind 1.6 Lib 1.0, the seats eventually splitting LD/SNP/C, the Tory candidate beating the Labour candidate for the final seat by just six votes.  With that result to work from absolutely anything could happen here, and transfers will be crucial.

PAGE MOSS, Knowsley, Merseyside; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  This is western Huyton, along the A57 Prescot Road and bordering the Liverpool wards of Knotty Ash and Yew Tree.  It's difficult to think of a safer Labour ward in the North West - even at Labour's low point in 2008 Page Moss gave the Labour candidate 78.7% in a straight fight with the Lib Dems, and last May's result was Lab 93.1 LD 6.9.  Candidates are the three main parties (the Tories are standing here for the first time since 2007) together with the Greens and an independent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that the result in the one ward will be harder to predict than the other.

Anyway, if there's one thing probably all of us associate with Huyton...

[minionofmidas]

Detailed map of the Edina ward? I want to see for myself what all is in it.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Detailed map of the Edina ward? I want to see for myself what all is in it.

[now screenshotted as suggested by Al]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Screenshot it, maybe?

[Verily]

Windsor & Maidenhead, Eton & Castle

Lib Dem 47.4 (+19.6)
Con 41.5 (-23.7)
Lab 7.3 (+0.3)
UKIP 3.9 (+3.9)

That's quite a shocking result, no? (For what that's worth in local by-elections)

LDs governed until 2007 and held this ward before their loss of the Council that year. The Conservatives now dominate Windsor & Maidenhead Council (the LDs had only one seat before this by-election, with some small Residents' Association representation as well), but they've made themselves unpopular, so it's not a huge surprise the LDs made a surprise gain.

[minionofmidas]

Cuts out the Old Town'S southern fringes, then. Goes further west than I would have expected, too.

[afleitch]

Detailed map of the Edina ward? I want to see for myself what all is in it.

[now screenshotted as suggested by Al]

Cuts out the Old Town'S southern fringes, then. Goes further west than I would have expected, too.

Basically everything to the south of Princes Street and beyond (basically the 'red road' that cuts down the middle) was won by the SNP in 2007. Labour won in the north east of the ward, at the Calton Hill area while in the north west in the New Town and towards Haymarket you found people who voted Lib Dem 'nationally' but Tory locally. Obviously the SNP pretty much won everything in 2011.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

while in the north west in the New Town and towards Haymarket you found people who voted Lib Dem 'nationally' but Tory locally.

This is the area of the ward most affected by the tram works.  Maybe this is a clue as to where the anti-tram indy's votes will come from?

[minionofmidas]

Detailed map of the Edina ward? I want to see for myself what all is in it.

[now screenshotted as suggested by Al]

Cuts out the Old Town'S southern fringes, then. Goes further west than I would have expected, too.

Basically everything to the south of Princes Street and beyond (basically the 'red road' that cuts down the middle) was won by the SNP in 2007. Labour won in the north east of the ward, at the Calton Hill area while in the north west in the New Town and towards Haymarket you found people who voted Lib Dem 'nationally' but Tory locally.

Which is as things should be, yeah. Though "Calton Hill area" may be a misnomer, I think "Holyrood area" probably covers it better. (Google map) Ooh, wait a second. That little council estate right by Holyrood appears to be the very northern tip of Southside/Newington ward. Nevermind then.

[ObserverIE]

Knowsley, Page Moss

Lab 82.5 (-10.6)
Lib Dem 8.7 (+1.8 )
Ind 3.4 (+3.4)
Green 3.2 (+3.2)
Con 2.3 (+2.3)

Edinburgh, City Centre

Con 24.2 (+4.0)
SNP 23.1 (+2.9)
Lab 19.7 (+1.7)
Green 14.3 (-2.7)
Ind 11.4 (+9.8 )
Lib Dem 7.3 (-12.6)

SNP	797	825	893	1081	1368
Con	837	904	1043	1110	1264
Lab	682	716	745	968
Green	494	576	635
Ind	394	402
Lib Dem	251

SNP hold