UK local by-elections 2011

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Two by-elections on 30th June, both in safe Conservative wards in safe Conservative councils.

CHESHUNT CENTRAL, Broxbourne, Herts; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor after he was arrested on suspicion of fraud.  Just outside the Greater London boundary in the Lea Valley, Cheshunt is a dormitory town for commuters to London; Liverpool Street is fourteen miles away on the West Anglia Main Line.  The main local employer is the supermarket chain Tesco which has its head office here.  Broxbourne council (which also includes Hoddesdon to the north) is dominated by the Conservatives, with the Labour opposition able to win just one of the district's thirteen wards, and it's not this one.  Entirely built-up except for the marshy ground along the Lea, Cheshunt Central is one of the weaker Tory wards, but they still enjoy a majority of nearly a thousand votes, currently over Labour, who took second place from the BNP in 2008.  The shares of the vote in May were C 67.9 Lab 20.4 English Democrats 11.6; the by-election sees candidates from the three main parties, UKIP and an Independent.

THAMESFIELD, Wandsworth, South London; caused by the Conservative leader of the council being appointed to Boris Johnson's team of Deputy Mayors of London.  Thamesfield ward consists of the Putney bank of the River Thames south of Putney Bridge; it's served by Putney station, six miles from Waterloo on the Windsor Line, with East Putney underground station just outside the ward boundary.  For decades now Wandsworth has been a 'flagship' Tory administration which sets unbelievably low council taxes by providing almost no actual services themselves, instead 'outsourcing' them to private companies; because of this the Conservatives have had more than 70% of the council seats continuously since 1990 even though all three of the borough's constituencies voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 (and Tooting or its predecessors have been held by Labour in Parliament since 1964).  Thamesfield ward is part of the Putney seat which is the better end of the borough for the Tories, and the votes in 2010 were C 56.0 Lab 17.7 LD 16.8 Grn 9.6, the leading Tory candidate polling almost 5000 votes.  The same four parties are contesting the by-election; for some reason the Labour candidate is working the ward hard with leaflets like this:


Edit: This is my 300th post

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 45.8 (-10.2)
Lab 31.3 (+13.6)
Lib Dem 16.7 (-0.1)
Green 6.2 (-3.4)

Broxbourne, Cheshunt Central

Con 53.1 (-14.8 )
Lab 34.4 (+14.0)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)
Ind 4.4 (+4.4)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)



(via BritainVotes)

Difficult to think of many less promising wards in London [than Thamesfield] to target, tbh.

The targeting clearly worked - that's an excellent result for Labour.

Looked up the 2008 GLA results for Thamesfield to get a bit more context: C 50.8 Lab 18.8 Grn 11.9 LD 11.6; Boris 55.6 Ken 28.1.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Five local by-elections on 7th July. 

[Horbury candidates list edited 6th July]

CHURNET VALLEY, Staffordshire County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This is a long and thin county division east of Stoke-on-Trent, which is visited by thousands of people every year; it's the home of the theme park Alton Towers and the Churnet Valley preserved railway.  Alton is at the south-east end of the division, which runs north-west along the Churnet Valley to the village of Cheddleton on the Stoke-Leek road; the division also includes the northern part of the town of Cheadle.  The presence of part of Cheadle meant that Labour had a fairly strong vote in the division in 2005 (C 47.6 Lab 32.4 LD 19.9) but that melted away in the 2009 Tory landslide, with Labour finishing in third place behind the Lib Dems; shares were C 53.9 LD 26.5 Lab 19.6.  The late Tory councillor, Barrie Mycock, once featured in a b3ta.com list of Real People With Rude Names (http://www.b3ta.com/features/realnames/); perhaps it's just as well they didn't know that Barrie was actually his middle name and his actual first name was Ramon.  I'm not making this up.  Candidates for the by-election are three main parties plus UKIP; UKIP have had some local success in Leek and Newcastle-under-Lyme so it'll be interesting to see how they do here.  

HORBURY AND SOUTH OSSETT, Wakefield, West Yorkshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservaive councillor due to ill-health.  The large village of Horbury is located in the Calder Valley about three miles south-west of Wakefield, at the point where the wool-spinning towns end and the coal-mining towns begin.  Horbury's main industries were spinning and engineering; the sports company Slazenger (official supplier of tennis balls to Wimbledon) had a factory here, and Charles Roberts and Co built tens of thousands of railway wagons over the years at Horbury Junction; the railway company Bombardier built the Voyager trains here in 2000-2005.  When the ward was created in 2004 Labour won 2 seats and the Conservatives 1; the Tories gained the Labour seats in 2007 and 2008 but the ward always remained marginal, the largest Tory majority being 199 votes in 2007.  The Tories did well to hold on in 2010 by 102 votes but in May Labour gained the ward fairly comfortably with a majority of 385; shares of the vote were Lab 49.1 C 41.3 LD 9.5.  Candidates for the by-election are those three parties plus UKIP and an Indie two Indies; the Lib Dem candidate is regular contributor to the Vote-UK forum Mark Goodair.

LYTCHETT MATRAVERS, Purbeck, Dorset; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  The village of Lytchett Matravers lies about seven miles north-west of Poole with good views over Poole Harbour; the ward also includes the village of East Morden to the west.  Purbeck council is currently finely balanced; following May's election the Tories and Lib Dems were tied on 11 seats each, with the Lib Dems currently controlling the council as a minority.  If the Tories can win the by-election they will have half the seats on the council, and that's certainly possible in this tight marginal ward; the Lib Dems won by 118 votes in 2010 (LD 52.6 C 47.4) and 57 votes in 2006, while in 2008 the Lib Dems and Tories won one seat each in a double-header.  The by-election is a straight LD/C fight.

PECKHAM, Southwark, South London; caused by the death of the Mayor of Southwark, who was a Labour councillor.  An iconic district of South London thanks to the TV comedy Only Fools and Horses (and Desmond's), Peckham ward covers the area between Burgess Park to the north and Peckham Bus Station to the south.  The area has a reputation for gang violence and the ward includes the notorious North Peckham Estate, scene of the murder of 10-year-old local resident Damilola Taylor eleven years ago and now extensively redeveloped.  The 2001 census found that the ward was majority black, 36% African, 15% Caribbean and 4% "Black Other".  With that sort of inner-city background it's a very safe Labour ward, and the 2010 shares of the vote were Lab 62.3 LD 17.9 C 8.5 Grn 6.1 Ind 5.2.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties, the Greens and TUSC, the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition.

SAWLEY, Derbyshire County Council; caused by the death of long-serving and amazingly popular Independent councillor Bill Camm.  Camm had been a councillor since 1961, initially as a Labour member of Long Eaton Urban District Council, although he fell out with Labour many years ago over the depth of a local swimming pool, of all things.  He stood for Parliament in 1983 as the Independent Labour candidate for Erewash and easily saved his deposit, polling 7.5%.  Sawley is a western suburb of the town of Long Eaton, on the eastern side of the M1 motorway a few miles south-west of Nottingham; the county division consists of the original village of Sawley south of the railway line (Sawley ward) and the Long Eaton ward of Wilsthorpe, covering the New Sawley area north of the railway line.  Camm's popularity was such that it's difficult to tell what will happen now he's gone; the most recent county election in 2009 was Camm 54.4 C 24.1 Lab 10.8 LD 10.7; in the 2007 Erewash district council election he polled 48.8% in the three-member Sawley ward, with the Lib Dem candidates winning the other two seats.  Camm retired from his district council seat in May, and Sawley elected two Conservatives and one Labour councillor, with Wilsthorpe electing three Conservative councillors although Labour were just 13 votes away from the final seat.  Both the Tories and Labour have gone for high-profile candidates, with Labour standing last year's Erewash parliamentary candidate, and the Tories selecting the leader of Erewash council (who is a Wilsthorpe ward councillor).  There is also a Lib Dem candidate.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Amusing image from the Horbury campaign.  Peter Box is the leader of Wakefield Council.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Interesting that UKIP can poll so much in Churnet Valley outside European Elections time.

I did wonder about that.  UKIP have very active chapters in Leek (which borders this division) and Newcastle under Lyme nearby, who actually seem to know how to do local campaigning.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

One by-election on 14th July:

OLD CATTON, Norfolk County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  This division is a northern suburb of Norwich containing the parish of Old Catton together with part of Sprowston; it falls outside the Norwich city boundary which has failed to keep pace with the city's growth.  The deprivation indices suggest that Old Catton is a well-off area, while Sprowston is more mixed.  The 2009 result (C 48.8 UKIP 16.3 LD 13.5 Lab 10.8 Grn 10.6) suggests a very safe Tory area, but Labour did much better in 2005 (C 39.9 Lab 32.5 LD 22.7 Grn 4.8 ) on the general election turnout, and also were back in second place in May in the Broadland district council ward of Old Catton and Sprowston West, which has the same boundaries as this county division (C 51.4 Lab 25.9 LD 13.4 UKIP 9.3); Labour finished third behind the Lib Dems in the 2007 and 2004 district elections.  The area is part of the Norwich North constituency and the 2009 result was followed shortly after by the Conservative gain in the Norwich North by-election, although the political climate is now very different of course.  Candidates are C/Lab/LD/Grn/UKIP.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Two local by-elections on 21st July:

GLYDER, Gwynedd; caused by the death of a Plaid councillor.  This ward is basically western Bangor and runs south-west from the Coleg Menai campus up the hill to Friars School; it also includes the mainland end of Telford's Menai Bridge.  Al will probably know more about the area.  In 2008 Plaid were only opposed by the Lib Dems and won 64.4-35.6; the 2004 result saw Labour standing as well, the result being PC 48.9 Lab 27.2 LD 23.8.  This time there is a full set of candidates from the four main parties.  Plaid must win this by-election to preserve their overall majority on Gwynedd council.

REMENHAM, WARGRAVE AND RUSCOMBE, Wokingham, Berkshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who now sits on the neighbouring council of Windsor and Maidenhead.  This is a rural ward at the northern end of Wokingham district on the Berkshire (eastern, here) side of the River Thames; Remenham and Remenham Hill lie at the northern end of the ward east of Henley-on-Thames, Ruscombe at the southern end is a suburb of Twyford on the Great Western Main Line, while Wargrave lies between them on the Thames and has a railway station on the Henley Branch.  This is a very safe Conservative ward which last voted in 2010 and split C 65.3 LD 28.2 Lab 6.5; the Tories polled more than 73% at the 2008 and 2006 elections.  Candidates are the three main parties plus UKIP and the Greens.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By-elections next week.  Starting with an unusual Tuesday by-election on 26th July:

SNATCHWOOD, Torfaen, Gwent; caused by the death of a People's Voice councillor.  This ward is a northern suburb of Pontypriddool, on the west bank of the river just south of Abersychan.  In 2008 it was won by People's Voice, a group of anti-Labour independents associated with former Independent AM Trish Law; People's Voice defeated Labour here by 372 votes to 282 in a straight fight.  The defeated Labour candidate is standing in the by-election along with candidates from Plaid, the Tories and three Independents.

By-elections on 28th July are in three safe Conservative wards and a LD/Lab marginal:

BEARDWOOD WITH LAMMACK, Blackburrn with Darrrwen, Lancs; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor due to ill-health.  Beardwood and Lammack are outlying north-west suburbs of Blackburrn, just inside the A6119 ring road; the ward also includes the Witton Country Park to the south.  This is a very middle-class area (Lammack in particular is quite well-off) and the Tories proved this by polling 82% in 2008 in a straight fight with Labour; the Tory vote in May was the lowest for some years at 60.3%, to 33.2% for Labour and 6.4% for the Lib Dems who don't stand in this ward consistently.  Candidates for the by-election are just the three main parties.

BUSH HILL PARK, Enfield, North London; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is moving to Cyprus for family reasons; Enfield has a large Cypriot community.  Served by the station of same name on the Enfield Town branch, 9.75 miles from Liverpool Street, this is part of the safe Labour parliamentary seat of Edmonton but doesn't vote like it; this can be explained by the area's history as a planned estate built on the grounds of the former Bush Hill Park House.  The estate is now a conservation area.  This produces a safe Conservative ward; the 2010 vote shares were C 38.4 Lab 24.8 LD 19.4 Grn 10.5 UKIP 6.9, while the Tories polled 63.4% in a 2009 by-election and their nearest challenger in 2006 was a campaigner to save Chase Farm Hospital.  Candidates for the by-election are C/Lab/LD/Grn/UKIP/BNP/Christian Party/EDP/Ind.

POULTON NORTH, Warrington; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  This is an area of new town development in the north-east of Warrington, just south of the huge M6-M62 junction at Croft.  The deprivation indices show that the ward is quite starkly divided, with the Blackbrook area (the south-west corner of the ward) being one of the most deprived areas in England and the Fearnhead area next it one of the least deprived.  This social division produced a safe Lib Dem ward in 2007 and 2008 (the Lib Dems polled 59.9% in 2008) but Labour gained by 31 votes in 2010 and gained a second seat in May by 238 votes (Lab 46.9 LD 39.2 C 13.9).  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus UKIP.

STANMORE PARK, Harrow, North London; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is now a cabinet member on Central Bedfordshire council, quite a long way from Harrow.  This ward covers most of the area known as Stanmore, stretching along Church Road and Stanmore Hill to the south of Bentley Priory, where the RAF forces in the Battle of Britain were controlled.  The main peculiarity of the area is an extremely large Jewish population, 27.3% according to the 2001 census; just outside this ward is Stanmore and Canons Park Synagogue which has the largest single Orthodox community in Europe.  While this ward isn't as uniformly middle-class as Bush Hill Park (it does have one quite deprived census area) it is an even safer Conservative area, with the shares of the vote in May being C 58.5 Lab 20.5 LD 13.5 Grn 7.5.  Candidates for the by-election are C/Lab/LD/Grn/UKIP and an Independent who is a former Mayor of Harrow and unsuccessfully sought the Conservative nomination.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By-elections next week.  Starting with an unusual Tuesday by-election on 26th July:

SNATCHWOOD, Torfaen, Gwent; caused by the death of a People's Voice councillor.  This ward is a northern suburb of Pontypridd, on the west bank of the river just south of Abersychan.  In 2008 it was won by People's Voice, a group of anti-Labour independents associated with former Independent AM Trish Law; People's Voice defeated Labour here by 372 votes to 282 in a straight fight.  The defeated Labour candidate is standing in the by-election along with candidates from Plaid, the Tories and three Independents.

Deliberate mistake time again?

Yep

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

August is normally a quiet month for by-elections and there is just one on 4th August.

SOUTH PETHERTON, Somerset County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  South Petherton is a tiny town in rural Somerset, just of the A303 about ten miles west of Yeovil.  The division includes a hinterland stretching to the villages of Merriott and Hinton St George to the south.  Those villages are in the district ward of Eggwood, which was fairly safe Lib Dem in May, while South Petherton ward itself (which also includes some villages to the west) is a marginal ward won by the Conservatives in May, gaining a seat from the Lib Dems.  This produces a marginal county division, like much of rural Somerset; the 2009 result was a Conservative gain with a majority of 94 (C 43.3 LD 40.3 Ind 9.2 Grn 7.2) while in May the Lib Dems were slightly ahead across the two district wards.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Grn/UKIP; the Conservative candidate is a district councillor for South Petherton and the Lib Dem candidate is the district councillor for Eggwood, while the independent candidate from 2009 now has the Green nomination.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Given that he represented Penrhyndeudraeth ward, there's a mild amount of irony in the fact that he's likely to become a prisoner fairly soon (ho, ho, ho).

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Three by-elections on 11th August:

ETON AND CASTLE, Windsor and Maidenhead, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is now a Government advisor on technology.  This is one of only five wards to cross the River Thames; the others are in Wiltshire and Gloucestershire.  There can be few wards with stronger royal connections; this ward contains Windsor Castle, the largest and longest-occupied castle in the world, a residence of the monarchy since the time of Henry I; the Windsor Home Park, a private Royal Park; and the Frogmore Mausoleum, final resting place for generations of the Royal Family.  However, the part of the ward in Windsor is essentially uninhabited, with the only buildings of any note being the castle itself and some commercial properties on the riverfront (including Windsor and Eton Riverside railway station, served from Waterloo).  The vast majority of the ward's electorate live on the Buckinghamshire side of the Thames in the tiny town of Eton, best known for and dominated by the famous public school.  As befits a ward with such strong Establishment connections, it's safe Conservative; between 2007 and May this year the Lib Dem and Labour votes were essentially static while the Conservatives found two hundred extra voters, producing a result of C 65.2 LD 27.8 Lab 7.0.  The by-election is contested by the three main parties plus UKIP.

FREMINGTON, North Devon; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor due to ill health.  Fremington is a village on the south bank of the Taw Estuary, about three miles west of Barnstaple; the ward also includes the village of Yelland to the west.  Not an awful lot can be read from May's result, which saw two very popular Independents dominating the poll and gaining the two seats from the Conservatives; the votes cast were Ind 1266/969/235 C 382/323 LD 184/95.  The by-election is contested by two Indies, the Tories and the Greens; the Tory candidate is one of the district councillors who lost his seat in May, while both Indies are current or ex-Fremington parish councillors.

ST PETERS, Islington, North London; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor who has been charged with benefit fraud; she denies the charge.  This ward is in the heart of Islington on the eastern side of Upper Street and Islington Green, and is served by Angel underground station on the Bank branch of the Northern Line, and by Essex Road underground railway station on the Finsbury Park-Moorgate branch (the only railway station in the UK which is only accessible by lift, fact fans).  The deprivation indices suggest that this is one of the more well-off wards in Islington.  Labour gained the ward from the Lib Dems in 2006, while May's result makes the ward look like a three-way marginal: Lab 34.4 LD 29.0 C 27.5 Grn 9.2; this is actually the strongest Conservative ward in Islington.  Candidates are Lab/LD/C/Grn/Ind, a second Independent having withdrawn after the close of nominations.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

CITY CENTRE, Edinburgh; caused by the resignation of an SNP councillor who is off to Harvard University.  The Old Town; the New Town; the Royal Mile; Calton Hill; Princes Street; Waverley Station; the Castle; the Military Tattoo; the Grassmarket; the Scottish Parliament; the Palace of Holyroodhouse.  All of them are in this ward and at this time of year all of them are completely overrun with tourists up for the Edinburgh Festival and its Fringe (which these days is the tail that wags the dog).  If you have never been to Edinburgh for the Festival, go - you won't regret it.  Unless you actually live in this ward - many locals move out for the duration of the Festival and let their apartments out to Fringe performers at extortionate rates.  Canvassing in this ward is difficult at the best of times, with many flats accessed through stairwells accessed through other stairwells (one of which broke the ankle of the Labour candidate in a fall last week); together with the deluge of flyers from Fringe performers and the fact that many of the polling stations are Fringe venues, it has to be asked whether it was a good idea to hold the by-election in August at all.  Nevertheless, there are candidates from the four main parties together with the Greens and a strong Independent candidate running on a platform of scrapping the troubled under-construction Edinburgh tram system.  The 2007 results show a five-way marginal: first preferences were SNP 20.4 C 20.2 LD 19.9 Lab 18.0 Grn 17.0 SSP 1.8 Ind 1.6 Lib 1.0, the seats eventually splitting LD/SNP/C, the Tory candidate beating the Labour candidate for the final seat by just six votes.  With that result to work from absolutely anything could happen here, and transfers will be crucial.

PAGE MOSS, Knowsley, Merseyside; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  This is western Huyton, along the A57 Prescot Road and bordering the Liverpool wards of Knotty Ash and Yew Tree.  It's difficult to think of a safer Labour ward in the North West - even at Labour's low point in 2008 Page Moss gave the Labour candidate 78.7% in a straight fight with the Lib Dems, and last May's result was Lab 93.1 LD 6.9.  Candidates are the three main parties (the Tories are standing here for the first time since 2007) together with the Greens and an independent.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Detailed map of the Edina ward? I want to see for myself what all is in it.

[now screenshotted as suggested by Al]

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

while in the north west in the New Town and towards Haymarket you found people who voted Lib Dem 'nationally' but Tory locally.

This is the area of the ward most affected by the tram works.  Maybe this is a clue as to where the anti-tram indy's votes will come from?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Two by-elections left in August on the 25th.

SALTCOATS AND STEVENSTON, North Ayrshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  Two of the 'three towns' along with the Arran ferry port of Ardrossan, Saltcoats started off as a salt-panning town which became a seaside resort, while Stevenston is a chemicals town which was a major base for Nobel Industries.  Both towns are served by stations on the electrified branch from Kilwinning to Largs and are about 30 miles from Glasgow Central.  The 2007 first preferences were Lab 34.8 SNP 32.0 Ind 25.6 C 7.6, with Labour winning 2 seats, the SNP 1 and an independent 1.  In 2003 all the predecessor FPTP wards were Labour except for Stevenston South which went narrowly SNP.  Saltcoats is in the Cunninghame North Scottish Parliament constituency while Stevenston is in Cunninghame South, both SNP-held, while the ward is part of the Labour-held Ayrshire North and Arran Westminster constituency.  Candidates for the by-election are Lab/SNP/C/LD/Socialist Labour/Pensioners/Ind.

SHIREBROOK SOUTH WEST, Bolsover, Derbyshire; caused by the death of an Independent councillor.  Shirebrook is a town on the eastern edge of Nottinghamshire, about five miles north of Mansfield and linked to it by the Nottingham-Worksop "Robin Hood" railway line.  Today it's the headquarters and site for the main warehouse of Sports Direct, the sportswear company owned by Newcastle United owner Mike Ashley, but its political preferences are determined by its history as a coal-mining town; Shirebrook Colliery was begun in the 1890s and finally closed in 1993.  Reflecting this, in 2003 Shirebrook's five single-member wards returned a full slate of unopposed Labour councillors.  In 2007 democracy broke out, with two wards having contested elections and Labour losing them both: North West was gained by the East Midlands' only ever Respect councillor, and this ward elected an Independent candidate, Alan Wareing, by a majority of one vote (Ind 376 Lab 375).  Wareing was re-elected in May much more comfortably (Ind 52.1 Lab 32.2 BNP 9.6 C 6.1).  With Wareing no longer with us a Labour regain looks the most likely outcome.  Candidates for the by-election are Lab/BNP/C/Grn; the BNP performed very well in the Shirebrook and Pleasley county division in 2009, polling 27.2% and finishing second, but their star has rather sunk since then.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

One by-election on 1st September:

KESWICK, Allerdale, Cumbria; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor due to ill-health.  Keswick (the W is silent) is a market town at the centre of the Lake District National Park, which was once a centre for pencil manufacturing (the world's first graphite pencils were made here) and now, this being the Lakes, gets most of its money from tourism.  The ward also includes the rural Vale of St John to the east, which climbs between Wainwright's Central and Eastern Fells past the lake of Thirlmere (source of Manchester's water) to the pass of Dunmail Raise.  Politically, this area is definitely not typical of Allerdale district, whose tone is set by the working-class and Labour-voting town of Workington, 21 miles to the west.  Labour currently hold half the seats on the council and will have overall control if they win the by-election.  Allerdale district has a lot of unopposed elections, and the last contested election in this ward was all the way back in 2003, at which the three main parties each won one seat, the Lib Dem candidate topping the poll.  The Tory and Labour winners from that by-election are still there, while the Lib Dem councillor stood down in 2007 (she is now the county councillor for the area) and was replaced by a new Lib Dem councillor who was re-elected in 2011 as an independent.  Interestingly the Tories are not contesting the by-election; the candidates nominated are Lib Dem, Labour and Green Party.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

One by-election on 1st September:

KESWICK, Allerdale, Cumbria; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor due to ill-health.  Keswick (the W is silent) is a market town at the centre of the Lake District National Park, which was once a centre for pencil manufacturing (the world's first graphite pencils were made here) and now, this being the Lakes, gets most of its money from tourism.  The ward also includes the rural Vale of St John to the east, which climbs between Wainwright's Central and Eastern Fells past the lake of Thirlmere (source of Manchester's water) to the pass of Dunmail Raise.  Politically, this area is definitely not typical of Allerdale district, whose tone is set by the working-class and Labour-voting town of Workington, 21 miles to the west.  Labour currently hold half the seats on the council and will have overall control if they win the by-election.  Allerdale district has a lot of unopposed elections, and the last contested election in this ward was all the way back in 2003, at which the three main parties each won one seat, the Lib Dem candidate topping the poll.  The Tory and Labour winners from that by-election are still there, while the Lib Dem councillor stood down in 2007 (she is now the county councillor for the area) and was replaced by a new Lib Dem councillor who was re-elected in 2011 as an independent.  Interestingly the Tories are not contesting the by-election; the candidates nominated are Lib Dem, Labour and Green Party.

Addendum and correction: it turns that the Lib Dem county councillor resigned earlier this year and there was a by-election on 5 May for the rather larger county council seat of Keswick and Derwent.  This was a Conservative gain: C 32.3 Ind 25.4 LD 24.2 Lab 18.1.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Three by-elections on 8th September:

BACKWELL, North Somerset; caused by the death of an Independent councillor.  This ward covers the large village of Backwell, eight miles south-west of Bristol on the road to Weston-super-Mare, together with the neighbouring villages of Brockley, Flax Bourton and Barrow Gurney.  It is served by Nailsea and Backwell railway station on the Great Western Main Line, with direct trains to Bristol Temple Meads and in peak hours to London Paddington (126 miles away), which makes this a very desirable area for commuters to Bristol and even London (if you fancy spending more than four hours a day on a train).  Politically this was a safe Conservative ward until 2007, when two Independents gained the ward after campaigning on a planning issue.  The two Independents were re-elected in May with only a single Conservative candidate as opposition; shares of the vote were Ind 67.3 C 32.7.  Candidates for the by-election are Ind/C/Lab/LD.

SOUTHMEAD, Bristol; caused by the resignation (due to ill-health) of a Lib Dem councillor.  This ward is on the northern edge of the city next to the town of Filton and its airport.  It started off life as a 1930s council estate to house people cleared from slums in the city centre, and is still an extremely deprived area, particularly when compared to the neighbouring middle-class ward of Westbury-on-Trym.  Politically it's a rather volatile ward; safe Labour on the basis on the 2006 and 2010 results (the 2010 shares were Lab 40.5 LD 27.1 C 20.7 BNP 6.5 Grn 2.6 English Democrats 2.5) but the Lib Dems gained the ward from Labour in 2009 with a majority of 20 (LD 32.1 Lab 31.4 C 18.9 English Democrats 11.4 Grn 6.2).  Candidates are LD/Lab/C/Grn/English Democrats.

STOCK, Essex County Council; caused by the disqualification of Conservative councillor Lord Hanningfield who is now serving a prison sentence for fiddling his House of Lords expenses.  This ward covers a large rural area to the south of Chelmsford, including the villages of Stock, Margaretting, the Hanningfields and Bicknacre and the Wickford suburb of Runwell.  There is one railway station in the far south of the division, at Battlesbridge on the Crouch Valley Line, 32 miles from Liverpool Street.  This is a very right-wing part of England, and that together with the large size of Essex county divisions allowed Hanningfield to poll almost 6000 votes on general election day in 2005, when he was leader of the County Council; he was re-elected in 2009 with 65.7% of the vote, the opposition being split LD 12.5 Grn 8.7 BNP 7.8 Lab 5.2.  With Hanningfield's fall from grace I would imagine that majority would be eroded somewhat.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Grn/Lab/UKIP.

In other news, the winner of the Poulton North by-election in Warrington at the end of July has sadly died.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

If it was built in the thirties, would it actually have been built directly for slum clearance? Most of the second generation (and the much smaller first generation; Addison Act houses) were built for skilled (as the term was understood then; often means something different now) workers and their families. The general idea was that the slum dwellers would then move into the houses that the skilled workers had left as they moved out to the new estates. Didn't work out like that, for obvious reasons.

Well, I was basically cribbing from the Wikipedia entry for Southmead, which says:

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[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Seven by-elections on 13th September, for eight seats:

BRAMSHOTT AND LIPHOOK, East Hampshire and HEADLEY, Hampshire County Council; a rare double by-election for the district council and a county council by-election caused by the resignation of two husband-and-wife Conservative district councillors; the husband (the county councillor) has since died.  Despite the order of the names Liphook is the major part of the district ward; it's a large village which started as a coaching stop on the London-Portsmouth stagecoach route, and is now bypassed by the A3; for London commuters Liphook station is on the Portsmouth Direct line, 47 miles from Waterloo and 28 miles from Portsmouth Harbour.  The Headley county division includes the whole of this ward and extends to the north to take in the Grayshott and Headley wards; Headley is just another rural village as far as I can tell while Grayshott (birthplace of the actor Colin Firth) is contiguous with the Surrey village of Hindhead, now known for its newly-built tunnel on the A3.  During the Second World War a large number of Canadian troops were stationed all over the division.  Politically, this a very Tory part of England although the Lib Dems came reasonably close in the district ward in 2007; shares of the vote were C 63.7 LD 31.1 Lab 5.2 in the county division in 2009 and C 50.6 LD 32.3 Lab 17.1 in the district ward in May.  Both polls are contested by the three main parties and the Greens, although the Greens are only standing one candidate for the district by-election; there is also an outfit called the Justice and Anti-Corruption Party standing for the county by-election.

GRAISELEY, Wolverhampton; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  From a very Tory area to a very Labour area; this is inner-city Wolverhampton to the west and south-west of the city centre, with all the deprivation that entails.  Even at Labour's nadir in 2008, when they lost control of Wolverhampton, this was a safe ward and it's a lot safer now for the party; the result in May was Lab 64.5 C 16.5 Ind 13.6 LD 5.4.  Candidates are the three main parties plus UKIP.

HIGHGATE, Camden, North London; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  Highgate has a reputation as one of London's most expensive and desirable suburbs, although the political effect of this is slightly diluted as the Camden/Haringey boundary runs right through the middle of it.  Camden's Highgate ward runs south through the more socially mixed Dartmouth Park area as far as Gospel Oak station on the North London and Gospel Oak-Barking Lines; the ward includes Parliament Hill, known for its great views of central London; much of Hampstead Heath; and Highgate Cemetery, final resting place of Karl Marx.  The politics of this area certainly isn't Marxist: this ward is a very stong area for the Green Party, which suggests a very large concentration of so-called Guardianistas living here; it elected three Labour councillors in 2002 with the Conservatives and Greens not far behind (the lead Green candidate was future Mayoral candidate Sian Berry); the Labour councillors lost in 2006 to two Greens and one Conservative; the Conservative councillor resigned in 2008 and the Greens won the by-election; in 2010 Labour regained two seats from the Greens.  Shares of the vote in 2010 were Grn 30.5 Lab 29.0 LD 20.2 C 20.2, which almost suggests a four-way marginal.  The same four parties are contesting the by-election.

HIGHLAND, Perth and Kinross; caused by the resignation of an SNP councillor who is emigrating to Australia.  This ward is centred on the town of Pitlochry, 28 miles north of Perth on the Highland Line and A9 to Inverness, which is a tourist resort popular as a base for pensioners' coach holidays.  At this time of year the tourist interest is centred on the Pitlochry Highland Games (which take place today) and the Festival Theatre (which uniquely puts on six different plays at once, one for each night of the week), while year-round employment is provided by the Tummel hydroelectric power scheme, with nine power stations of which Pitlochry is the lowest.  Eight of those power stations are within this ward, which is one of the largest wards in the UK with an area of 900 square miles; for comparison that is bigger than Herefordshire and only slightly smaller than Luxembourg.  The only other population centres of note in the ward are Aberfeldy and Blair Atholl; to the north is a large chunk of the Cairngorms National Park (including Glen Tilt, known to pilots as "Star Wars Valley"), the A9 and Highland Line run north-west through Killiecrankie, Blair Atholl and Glen Garry to the Pass of Drumochter, while to the west Strath Tummel leads up to Rannoch Moor with its comically isolated railway station on the West Highland Line.  Perthshire is a strong SNP area and this is one of the SNP's strongest wards; first preferences in 2007 were SNP 58.4 C 25.6 LD 13.5 Ind 2.5, with the SNP winning two seats and the Conservatives one; interestingly all three winning candidates had a quota of first preferences so there was no need to do any transfers.  Candidates for the by-election are SNP/C/LD and two Independents.

PHOENIX, Gedling, Nottinghamshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor who is emigrating.  Part of the eastern Nottingham suburb of Carlton, this ward is on the edge of the Nottingham built-up area and covers a fairly socially mixed area.  Politically it's a Labour/Lib Dem marginal, Labour gaining both seats from the Lib Dems in May by majorities of 62 and 4 votes; shares of the vote in May were Lab 52.2 LD 47.8.  Candidates are the three main parties plus UKIP, who appear to be working the area hard (for them).

SURBITON HILL, Kingston upon Thames, South London; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor whose new employer (Friends of the Earth) does not allow him to hold a council seat.  Surbiton is an icon of suburbia in British TV such as The Good Life, thanks to its location on the South Western Main Line; Surbiton station is twelve miles from Waterloo.  This ward runs south from the station through some very middle-class areas along the Upper Brighton Road and Hook Road.  In 2010 the Lib Dems gained the ward from the Conservatives, who looked fairly safe on the basis of the 2006 results; shares of the vote in 2010 were LD 42.3 C 36.5 Lab 11.2 Grn 7.9 Christian Peoples Alliance 2.1.  Those five parties are standing in the by-election together with an Independent.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

The Gedling Lib Dem candidate was a long-time councillor who'd lost by 4 votes in May. The Highgate vote certainly doesn't look promising for Lynne Featherstone or Sarah Teather next time round.

Why should it look unpromising?  This Highgate ward isn't in either of their seats.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Gedling's a bit of a surprise. Then again, so is the extent of LD collapse in guardianland.

The Gedling Lib Dem candidate was a long-time councillor who'd lost by 4 votes in May. The Highgate vote certainly doesn't look promising for Lynne Featherstone or Sarah Teather next time round.

Why should it look unpromising?  This Highgate ward isn't in either of their seats.

Because they lost 80% of their vote?

(looks again at result)
Point taken.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Just one by-election on 22nd September.

STAITHE, Fenland, Cambridgeshire; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor in a car crash.  Welcome to Wisbech, self-styled Capital of the Fens.  Located on the Cambridgeshire/Norfolk border, the town became a wealthy port in the 17th century, handling agricultural produce from the newly drained Fens; the River Nene here is still navigable.  Many of the buildings in the town centre are Georgian, leading to some film and TV costume dramas being filmed here, while the town's most famous son is the slavery abolitionist Thomas Clarkson, who has a memorial and a ward named after him in the town.  Staithe ward, one of seven wards covering Wisbech, is located on the eastern edge of the town before it merges seamlessly into the suburb of Walsoken, which is over the county boundary in Norfolk.  Fenland distict is an extremely Tory part of England, with the Tories having a majority in 2003 and 2007 before a single vote was cast through unopposed returns and undernomination by opposition candidates; Staithe was Conservative unopposed in both those years.  In May the opposition made an effort to actually contest the election, and Labour and UKIP candidates were nominated for the ward; the result was C 55.1 Lab 28.8 UKIP 16.1.  The ward forms a quarter of the Wisbech South county division which at the last county council election in 2009 voted C 46.4 UKIP 26.5 Lab 10.6 LD 9.5 Libertarian 7.0.  Candidates for the by-election are C, Lab, UKIP, Lib Dem and an Independent.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Five local by-elections on 29th September, for three of which Al is probably better qualified to comment.

BICESTER NORTH, Cherwell, Oxon; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Probably best known to the rest of the world as the home of the Bicester Village Shopping Centre, the UK's leading designer outlet centre which is insanely popular with Japanese tourists, Bicester (pronounced BISter) is a very fast-growing market town located twelve miles north-east of Oxford.  Part of its fast growth is due to its good transport links, some of which date back to Roman times - the town is just off the M40 London-Birmingham motorway and is served by two railway lines; Bicester North station (which despite the name is not in this ward) is on the Chiltern line, 55 miles from London Marylebone, while Bicester Town station is on a branch line twelve miles from Oxford.  The franchise-holder, Chiltern Railways, is currently working on connecting the two lines so it can serve Oxford.  There are some run-down parts of the town, but not this ward, with all four of the census areas in it ranking in the 20% least deprived in England.  Obviously, this results in a safe Conservative ward, with the shares of the vote in May being C 58.9 Lab 25.1 LD 16.0.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties.

BISHOP'S CASTLE, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of Shropshire's tiny market towns, and until 1974 the smallest borough in England, the town is located twenty miles north-west of Ludlow, twenty miles south-west of Shrewsbury and just two miles from the Welsh border.  The ward itself includes eleven other tiny parishes in the same general area.  At the first unitary Shropshire Council election in 2009 the shares of the vote here were LD 47.7 C 40.5 Grn 11.8, the Lib Dem councillor having previously been a long-serving district councillor on the now-abolished South Shropshire district council.  Candidates for the by-election are the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Greens and Labour.  

DIFFWYS & MAENOFFEREN, Gwynedd; caused by the resignation of a Llais Gwynedd councillor.  At the other end of the Ffestiniog Railway (see Penrhyndeudraeth below) is the slate-quarrying town of Blaenau Ffestiniog, of which this ward covers the town centre and eastern end.  To be honest, the recent politics is probably more interesting; Plaid unopposed in 2004, the ward was gained by the anti-Plaid movement Llais Gwynedd in 2008 with vote shares LlG 49.3 PC 41.1 Lab 9.5; the Llais councillor was then forced to quit the council last year after being convicted of attempting to kill his wife.  Llais held the by-election on 15 July 2010 by just four votes (LlG 50.5 PC 49.5); this by-election has been caused by the resignation of the councillor elected in that by-election.  Plaid gained Blaenau's other ward in a by-election shortly after the previous Diffwys by-election.  The by-election is again a straight fight between Llais and Plaid.

NASCOT, Watford, Hertfordshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor who has a new job in Ireland.  This ward runs north-west from the town centre between the Hempstead Road and the West Coast Main Line, with its main spine being the Nascot Wood Road, highly sought after and home to many footballers and other high-earners (the south end of the ward is within walking distance of Watford Junction mainline railway station).  Normally this would create a safe Conservative ward, but Watford Council went Lib Dem at local elections in a big way around 2000, with the Lib Dem elected mayor now on her third term; the yellow Focus has turned this ward into a Lib Dem/Tory marginal, with the score in the five elections since 2006 being Lib Dem 4 Conservative 1 (in 2008).  The result in May was LD 45.6 C 36.3 Lab 11.7 Grn 6.4, which was actually the biggest Lib Dem majority in recent years.  Candidates for the by-election are the same four parties.

PENRHYNDEUDRAETH, Gwynedd; caused by the resignation of a Plaid Cymru councillor who stole £53,000 from the local post office while he was sub-postmaster.  Amusingly, he was the cabinet member for economy and community; even more amusingly, he's now a prisoner.  Amusingly, because this ward includes the Hotel Portmeirion, Sir Clough Williams-Ellis' fantasy Italianate village which was the setting for the 1960s TV series The Prisoner, and now attracts large numbers of tourists.  However, the main industry in the town was explosives, with an ICI factory here until 1997, and there is still quarrying in the area.  The ward includes the village of Minffordd to the south-west and runs north-east into part of the Snowdonia National Park.  Transport connections are comparatively good, with two railway stations on the Cambrian Coast Line which is part of the mainline network (but more than 100 miles from Shrewsbury where the line connects to the rest of the network), and three stations on the narrow-gauge Ffestiniog Railway; however, that's only four stations in total as Minffordd station is shared by both companies.  As usual in rural Wales, previous results are not much of a guide to what might happen in the by-election; the 2008 result was PC 58.5 Llais Gwynedd 41.5.  Candidates for the by-election are Plaid, Llais Gwynedd and Annibynnol.