UK local by-elections 2011

[ObserverIE]

I see.

Seem to remember Respect being orangeyred. Never even heard of the colour Goldenrod before.

http://www.w3schools.com/html/html_colornames.asp

Can be hit and miss as to what colours are supported by the BBCodes.

[doktorb]

I love how this forum can talk about absolutely anything at length

[minionofmidas]

Just trying something else... (that's fuchsia)...

No, this is Fuchsia:

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Here's grey

More surprised at your colouring of the Ashford Independents than your Teale for MK - you usually leave them black.

I've been accused of being many things in my time, but that's the first time I've been accused of being a Cornish nationalist.

Two by-elections on Tuesday 1st December, in two very different Conservative areas of southern England.

BRENT, Somerset County Council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Alan Ham.

Not to be confused with a rather more well-known London borough, the county division of Brent can be found on the Somerset Levels, covering the countryside between Burnham-on-Sea and Weston-super-Mare.  It has the M5 Sedgemoor service area at its geographic centre; the service area was once known as Brent Knoll, after the isolated hill nearby which dominates the surrounding landscape and gives its name to this division.

While Somerset county council is often closely fought between the Tories and Lib Dems, with lots of marginal divisions, this is not one of them partly thanks to a large personal vote for Alan Ham, who originally gained the seat off the Liberals (on slightly different boundaries) in a 1988 by-election, and saw his vote grow to almost 70% at his final re-election in 2009 (C 69.9 LD 24.7 Lab 5.4).  At Sedgemoor district council level the two-and-a-half wards covered by the division (Berrow, Knoll and part of Axevale) are also safely Conservative; when the Lib Dems gained the local parliamentary seat of Wells last year this was probably not one of the areas which voted for them.

This time Labour have decided not to waste their time standing and the by-election is a two-horse race between the Tories and Lib Dems.  The Tories have selected a controversial local farmer and Axevale district councillor, while the Lib Dem candidate is a Burnham-on-Sea and Highbridge town councillor who narrowly failed to get elected to Sedgemoor council in May in a previously safe Lib Dem ward.

RAYLEIGH CENTRAL, Rochford, Essex; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Tony Humphries.

Part of the badly-planned urban sprawl of South Essex, the market town of Rayleigh can be found six miles north-west of Southend-on-Sea.  On the site of a Norman castle and medieval royal hunting ground, the town has expanded greatly in recent years thanks to overspill from London, to which it is linked by the A127 arterial road and a station on the Liverpool Street-Southend Victoria line.

The town is covered by eight wards of Rochford council; this ward is rather misnamed in that it doesn't cover the town centre but instead is a residential area east of the town centre, bounded to the south by the Eastwood Road.

While Rochford council was Lib Dem controlled from 1994 to 1998, South Essex as a whole swung a mile to the right during the Blair years and the Conservatives now have a strong council majority with a rather fragmented opposition; the eight opposition councillors consist of four Lib Dems (all in western Rayleigh), two Residents and two Greens, following a Green Party gain at a by-election in June this year, and there have been good votes in the district for UKIP, BNP and English Democrat candidates.  The Green gain was in the rather isolated Hullbridge ward; Rayleigh Central is very different in that the Lib Dems are normally the nearest opposition to the Conservatives. 

The ward was reasonably close when it was created in 2002, with the two Conservative councillors having majorities of 105 and 76, but this wasn't followed up by the Lib Dems, who allowed the Conservatives to win unopposed in 2004 and have trailed in a distant second ever since.  The most recent result in 2010 looked rather more encouraging from the Lib Dem point of view (C 54.7 LD 30.9 English Democrats 14.4), but that was on the same day as the most recent general election and there is still a long way to go for the Tories to lose this one.

Candidates for the by-election are again Conservative, Lib Dem and English Democrat.  The Conservative candidate is a former chairman of Rayleigh town council, the Lib Dem candidate is the wife of the leader of the Lib Dem group on the district council, and the English Democrat candidate came a creditable second in Hullbridge ward in May.

[minionofmidas]

Here's grey

More surprised at your colouring of the Ashford Independents than your Teale for MK - you usually leave them black.

I've been accused of being many things in my time, but that's the first time I've been accused of being a Cornish nationalist.

It was a compliment, not an accusation, and thus obviously untrue.

Also, "service area" must be one of the most bizarre of UK-specific names for everyday common things.

[Leftbehind]

I'd spotted your fervent Cornish nationalism a mile off!

Pretty boring by-elections this week. Coalition partners or right-wing English nationalism; English democracy in action!

[doktorb]

Rayleigh Central



Street View from one street chosen at random - http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=rayleigh&hl=en&ll=51.594055,0.634289&spn=0.000053,0.053988&sll=53.800651,-4.064941&sspn=18.199598,55.283203&vpsrc=6&hnear=Rayleigh,+United+Kingdom&t=m&z=15&layer=c&cbll=51.585049,0.616324&panoid=QxmdBKswfN8uqsANseZFtQ&cbp=12,25.26,,0,7.05



Brent





Obviously the ward is huge so here's a field - http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=Lympsham,+Weston-Super-Mare&hl=en&ll=51.28436,-2.971373&spn=0.016964,0.107975&sll=51.237202,-2.951889&sspn=0.151112,0.4319&vpsrc=0&hnear=Lympsham,+Weston-Super-Mare,+Avon,+United+Kingdom&t=m&z=14&layer=c&cbll=51.284384,-2.971366&panoid=0qcZdNQXqjiMMUtTiLXaqQ&cbp=12,34.1,,0,9.97

[ObserverIE]

Somerset, Brent

Con 58.0 (-11.9)
Lib Dem 42.0 (+17.3)

Rochford, Rayleigh Central

Con 54.7 (-)
Eng Dem 29.4 (+15.0)
Lib Dem 15.8 (-15.1)

(via Britain Votes)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Just the one by-election on 8th December.

HAMILTON WEST AND EARNOCK, South Lanarkshire; caused by the death of an independent councillor.

Twelve miles south-east of Glasgow on the M74 to England, Hamilton is the main administrative centre of South Lanarkshire, although it is not the council's largest town (that's East Kilbride).  This ward, as the name suggests, covers the west of the town together with the suburb of Earnock (which has now been swallowed up by the town) and a rural area towards East Kilbride.

First preferences in 2007 were Lab 38.1 SNP 25.1 Ind 22.6 C 9.6 Grn 2.6 SSP 2.0, with Labour winning two seats, the SNP one and an independent, whose policy was to oppose the then Labour-controlled council's policy on local high schools, also being elected.  (Since 2007 the council has been controlled by a Labour/Conservative coalition.)  The ward is part of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency at Holyrood; this seat was one of the SNP gains in May.

Just three candidates have been nominated for the by-election, Labour, SNP and Conservative.

[ObserverIE]

South Lanarkshire, Hamilton West and Earnock

SNP 50.1 (+25.0)
Lab 36.9 (-1.2)
Con 13.0 (+3.4)

(via Britain Votes)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, quite a different result to some other recent ones in Scotland. Given the appalling weather, what was turnout like?

[ObserverIE]

Yeah, quite a different result to some other recent ones in Scotland. Given the appalling weather, what was turnout like?

About 12%, I think. 822 to 821 for the other two candidates combined.

[MaxQue]

Yeah, quite a different result to some other recent ones in Scotland. Given the appalling weather, what was turnout like?

11.79%, exactly.

[doktorb]

So 12%, then.

[minionofmidas]

Thought a first-count majority was quite likely. For whichever of the two parties.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By-elections on 15th December:

FELTHAM AND HESTON: see separate thread.


CLARE AND SHUTTERN, Mid Devon District Council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Nigel Burrough.

Clare and Shuttern is a very rural ward, covering the sparsely-populated countryside north of Tiverton along the Exe Valley as far as the Somerset border.  The largest settlement in the ward is the village of Bampton.

When the ward was created in 2003 it elected a Conservative and an Independent councillor, but the Conservatives gained the second seat in 2007 and held the two seats fairly easily in 2011 against only Independent opposition.  The ward is part of the Tiverton West electoral division, which the Conservatives narrowly gained from an Independent in 2009.

The Conservatives have nominated for the by-election their Tiverton West county councillor Polly Colthorpe, who was a district councillor for this ward (and once deputy leader of Mid Devon council) until May this year.  The more successful Independent candidate from May, Bampton parish councillor Terry Knagg, is standing again and there is also a UKIP candidate.


COOMBE VALE, Kingston upon Thames Royal Borough Council, South London; a rare double by-election caused by the resignations of Conservative councillors James White (who has since died) and Robert-John Tasker (who has got a job in the USA).

Probably a more pressing priority for the south-west London Lib Dems than the Feltham and Heston by-election is this council by-election in a marginal C/LD ward.  Coombe Vale ward can be found to the north-west of New Malden railway station on the South Western Main Line, and is basically bounded by Coombe Road and Traps Lane to the east and Coombe Lane West to the north.  This is a very affluent commuter area, with the main demographic pecularity being a very large Korean population (although most of the Koreans living here wouldn't be eligible to vote).

Until 2006 Kingston upon Thames council tended to seesaw between the Conservatives and Lib Dems at every election.  When this ward was created in 2002 the Lib Dems were on the up and they won two of the three seats in the ward, the top two Conservative candidates dead-heating for the final seat which had to be decided by lots.  In 2006 the Lib Dems lost five seats on the council, and two of them were in this ward as the Conservatives won all three seats with a convincing majority.  The Tories held all three seats in 2010 but with much smaller majorities of 311, 89 and 79 votes.  The Lib Dems will hope to follow through with two gains in the by-election, while the Tories can point out that this ward is in the Richmond Park constituency which the Tories gained off Lib Dem Susan Kramer last year.  An interesting fight is in prospect.

The by-election has pairs of candidates from the Conservatives, Lib Dems, Labour, the Christian Peoples Alliance and the Greens together with a single UKIP candidate.  One of the Conservative candidates is Lynne Finnerty; she will presumably be hoping to take the Tory vote share beyond last time's...


FRISBY ON THE WREAKE, Melton District Council, Leicestershire; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Nigel Angrave.

One of Britain's more unintentionally humerous ward names, this conjures up in my mind an image of an out-of-control frisbee causing Fentonesque chaos.  (On the other hand it's not the most humorous ward as anyone who has ever heard the Bolton pronounciation of Tonge with The Haulgh will attest.)  The truth is more bucolic: this is rolling Leicestershire countryside between Leicester and the pork pie town of Melton Mowbray, consisting of the villages of Grimston and Hoby on the north side of the River Wreake, and Rotherby, Kirby Bellars and Frisby on the Wreake itself on the opposite bank.

Nigel Angrave was elected unopposed for the ward in 2003 and 2007.  He did face a contested election in May but easily defeated the Labour candidate by 71.0% to 29.0%.  The ward is part of the safe Conservative county division of Asfordby.

The by-election again has Conservative and Labour candidates, with two independents also standing.


SHETLAND CENTRAL, Shetland Islands Council; caused by the resignation of Iris Hawkins, who is getting married.  This is the last local by-election in Scotland before May's full council elections.

Shetland is by far the most northerly council in the UK, and with this by-election taking place in mid-December there are less than six hours of daylight on polling day (sunrise 0903, sunset 1456) which must be some sort of record.

As the name suggests, this ward covers the centre of the Shetland Mainland west of Lerwick, from Girlsta in the north to Scalloway in the south.  At the centre of the ward is Lerwick/Tingwall Airport, from which flights depart to various outlying islands.  The ward also covers the islands of Tronda, West Burra and East Burra which are connected to Mainland by a series of causeways, together with some smaller uninhabited islands.  The main centre of population is Scalloway, a harbour on the west coast with strong historical links to Norway (the "Shetland Bus" Second World War resistance movement had its home here) and is now a service base for the recently-developed Schiehallion oil field.

You can't talk about the Shetland Islands Council without mentioning oil; the islands have Europe's largest oil terminal at Sullom Voe, and over the years the Council has built up an enormous oil fund making it one of the richest councils in the UK.  (London and Edinburgh, please take note.)  As North Sea oil declines, this ward could play its part in the next generation of energy, with an enormous windfarm planned covering almost the entire Central ward - the Scottish Ministers are currently dithering over whether to say yes or no to the idea.  Unfortunately the council is also running a huge deficit which has led to the closure of the secondary school in Scalloway, and there are various allegations that the council has been dipping into the oil fund to try to plug the deficit, with most of the people involved in the running of the oil fund having been sucked into the controversy.

Elections in Shetland are basically non-partisan and until PR was brought in were often uncontested.  The 2007 election returned Iris Hawkins, who had previously represented the single-member Scalloway ward, and new councillors Andrew Hughson and Betty Fullerton; all three of them polled over 21% of first preferences and were a long way ahead of the other five candidates.  The by-election sees six candidates, in alphabetical order:

* Stephen Morgan is the outgoing head of children's services at the council.
* Clive Richardson is an official Conservative candidate.
* Davie Sanderson is the chairman of Scalloway Community Council and runs Shetland Aquaculture; there is a fisheries college in Scalloway.
* Ian Scott was the runner-up in 2007, polling 10.8% of first preferences, and also lost to Hawkins in 2003 in Scalloway ward.  He is standing on an anti-cuts platform.
* Scotty van der Tol came bottom of the poll in 2007 with 19 votes (1.6%), when he was known as Scotty Dyble.  He is a UKIPper who favours independence for Shetland.
* Robert Williamson is a GMB union rep.

Pretty much anybody could win out of that lot, except possibly van der Tol.

[minionofmidas]

SHETLAND CENTRAL, Shetland Islands Council; caused by the resignation of Iris Hawkins, who is getting married. 

Now that's what I consider a legitimate resigning issue!



If it was the bridegroom that was resigning, that is.

[ObserverIE]

Melton, Frisby on the Wreake

Ind (Hutchinson) 38.5
Con 34.0 (-37.0)
Lab 16.2 (-12.8 )
Ind (Twittey) 11.3

Kingston-upon-Thames, Coombe Vale

Con 44.8 (+1.9) (1340, 1308)
Lib Dem 28.5 (-8.2) (908, 778)
Lab 17.4 (+7.4) (526, 502)
Green 4.1 (-3.7) (122, 108)
CPA 2.9 (+0.3) (94, 76)
UKIP 2.4 (+2.4) (70)

(via Britain Votes)

Mid Devon, Clare and Shuttern

Con 63.6 (+2.2)
Ind 27.4 (-11.2)
UKIP 8.9 (+8.9)

(via Vote 2007)

[Leftbehind]

Interesting to see the Tories lose Frisby on the Wreake! Is Hutchinson a rightist? Also a pretty strong result for Labour in Kingston-upon-Thames:



Anyone have any results there pre-2002?

[YL]

Interesting to see the Tories lose Frisby on the Wreake! Is Hutchinson a rightist?

Google finds this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So it looks like he stood because he didn't like the Tories' choice of candidate, and it appears the people of the wonderfully named Frisby on the Wreake agreed with him.

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for clearing that up!

[minionofmidas]

He does appear to have drawn Labour votes as well.
Then again, their candidate was "an Asian Socialist", so maybe not so surprising.

[minionofmidas]

Shetland, 1st count

    Stephen Morgan - 116
    Clive Richardson - 29 (elim)
    Davie Sandison - 332
    Ian Scott - 107
    Scotty Ven der Tol - 27 (elim)
    Robert Williamson - 75

2nd count

    Stephen Morgan - 124
    Davie Sandison - 352 (elected)
    Ian Scott - 115
    Robert Williamson - 81

[ObserverIE]

Conservatives get 4.2% in Shetland. Feel the surge.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

A rare Monday by-election today.

19th December: WORLINGHAM, Waveney DC, Suffolk; a rare Monday by-election caused by the resignation of ex-Conservative councillor and favourite subject of Private Eye's Rotten Boroughs column Andrew Draper.  Draper left the Conservative group in August after he was convicted of drink-driving and assaulting a police officer, but remained on the council as an independent until finally resigning in November after being charged with sending an offensive email to a police officer and possessing a prohibited weapon.

Waveney council covers the north-eastern corner of Suffolk and is named after the River Waveney, which here forms the boundary with Norfolk.  The main town in the district is Lowestoft, and the district also includes the towns of Beccles, Bungay, Halesworth and Southwold.  The village of Worlingham is effectively an eastern suburb of Beccles; the Worlingham ward also includes the villages of North Cove and Barnby on the road to Lowestoft, together with part of the Broads National Park to the north.

For the most part Waveney is a classic Conservative/Labour battle with the Labour vote concentrated in Lowestoft and the Conservatives cleaning up in the rural areas, although as often happens there are some deviations from this pattern; in particular, the Green Party are very strong in Beccles.

Draper's decision in August to stay on as a councillor probably had
something to do with the political balance of the council: before his resignation there were 23 Conservative councillors, 23 Labour, one Green (in Beccles North) and one Independent councillor, with the Conservatives forming the administration with the support of the Independent councillor, who is chairman of the council.   Waveney ditched elections by thirds this year and moved to whole council elections every four years; with the next elections not being until 2015 that is a long time to rely on the council chairman's casting vote.

As can be seen the council is evenly split 24-24 between the administration and the opposition, so a Conservative loss in the Worlingham by-election could result in Labour taking control of the council with the support of the Green councillor.  So, will the Conservatives lose this by-election?

In almost any other circumstances I would confidently say no - it's a safe ward and in recent years has usually given the Conservative candidate over half the vote, with Labour finishing a fairly strong second and the Greens picking up about 15% in third.  However, on the other side of the equation is the circumstances of Draper's resignation, which could provide a boost to the opposition parties.  Still, given past form in the ward the Conservatives have to start as strong favourites and a Labour (or Green) gain would be a real shock.

The by-election sees candidates from the three main parties, the Greens and UKIP.  The Lib Dems are standing in the ward for the first time since 2007 and UKIP last stood here in 2002.