UK local by-elections 2011

Three tomorrow in the last by-elections of the year, and it's the Urban W's: Walsall, Wembley and Westbourne.

WEMBLEY CENTRAL, Brent LBC, North London; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Jayesh Mistry.

Wembley is, of course, internationally famous for association football, with Wembley Stadium being the home of the England football team and traditional venue for major domestic matches such as the FA Cup final, as well as this year's and next year's Champions League final. The original stadium (which was demolished in 2000) was built in the 1920s as the centrepiece of the British Empire Exhibition, which provided one impetus for the major inter-war housing developments that turned Wembley from a detached Middlesex town into part of the London urban sprawl.

This ward doesn't include the stadium but is instead based on the town centre and Wembley Central station on the West Coast Main Line, which is also served by the Euston-Watford line of the London Overground and the Bakerloo line of the Underground; parts of the ward are also served by Alperton underground station on the Uxbridge branch of the Piccadilly Line.

Wembley is one of the most ethnically diverse areas of the UK, and the 2001 census found a non-white population in Wembley Central ward of 77%, one of the highest figures in the country. Indians were the largest ethnic group forming almost 40% of the population; 39% gave their religion as Hindu and 15% as Muslim. The ward is generally economically working-class, with all but one of its census areas in the most deprived 20%-40% in England.

Since its creation in 2002 this has consistently been a Lib Dem/Labour marginal ward at Brent council level. The Lib Dems won all three seats in 2002 with majorities of 120, 93 and 54, and held all three seats in 2006 with majorities of 205, 111 and 90, and held a by-election in 2009 with a majority of 261 after one of their councillors was found guilty of fraud. Labour gained the ward in 2010 with majorities of 527, 230 and 155 on a much higher turnout. At the 2008 GLA elections Labour carried the ward with 37.9% to 21.1% for the Lib Dems, 14.7% for the Conservatives and 10.9% for the Greens, while Ken beat Boris by 53.1% to 24.7%.

Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties, all of whom are standing Asian candidates, plus the Greens, who aren't.

WESTBOURNE, Brighton and Hove; caused by the resigation of Conservative ex-Leader of the Council Brian Oxley.

This ward is in Hove, actually. It runs down from Aldrington railway station to the seafront, with Westbourne Street and Westbourne Villas running along the centre of the ward. Hove has traditionally seen itself as socially superior to Brighton, which has a brasher reputation, but interestingly the demographics of this ward don't reflect this - five of the ward's six census areas are in the wrong half of the deprivation indices and the other is right in the middle.

Despite this, the ward was safe Conservative in 2003 (when Labour won Brighton and Hove council for the last time) and 2007, when the Conservatives were a handful of seats off a majority and Oxley became Leader of the Council. In 2011, the Greens famously became the largest party on the still-hung council and now have a minority administration here - the first Green administration on any principal council in Britain. Most of the Green vote is in Brighton, but the Green surge was felt here and turned the ward into a three-way marginal - C 35.5 Lab 29.5 Grn 26.3 LD 7.6 European Citizens Party 1.1.

The Green administration is apparently pretty popular so if there is any further increase in their vote a Green gain cannot be ruled out. Labour can look to the demographics (although they were nowhere near winning in 2003 when they controlled the city council), while the Conservatives will be looking to make the ward safe again.

For some reason a lot of candidates have come out of the woodwork for this one, and the four main parties are joined by UKIP, the Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts and the European Citizens Party.

BIRCHILLS LEAMORE, Walsall MBC, West Midlands; caused by the death of Labour councillor Joan Barton.

Drive down the M6 into the Black County, taking care to avoid the toll road, and just after the M54 joins a view opens out on the left-hand side of an unambiguously industrial landscape with several prominent blocks of high-rise flats. This is Leamore, part of Birchills Leamore ward.

As the name suggests, the ward covers two distinct parts of the borough of Walsall. Birchills is located just outside the town centre ring road in the south-east corner of the ward, while Leamore is a large council estate in the west of the ward on the opposite side of a canal, hard up against the M6 as stated. The ward scores very highly on the deprivation indices; apart from Pouk Hill in the south-west corner every census area in the ward is in the most deprived 20% in England.

In Walsall demographics like this don't necessarily produce a safe Labour ward, because the local Labour party has an extremely wacky reputation. Labour won all three seats in 2004 comfortably enough, but their councillor who was up in 2006 defected to the Conservatives and came within 70 votes of being re-elected in her new colours. One of the Labour councillors resigned in 2008 over child porn allegations and Labour then lost the by-election to the Conservatives by 103 votes. Labour got the seat back in 2010, but only by 171 votes, before performing much more strongly this May.

Candidates for the by-election are Labour, Conservative, Greens, UKIP and the English Democrats; the Conservative candidate was the winer of the 2008 by-election.

Finally, it is obligatory to mention Slade because IT'S CHRISTMAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSS!: Noddy Holder grew up in Leamore and the cover of Ambrose Slade's first album Beginnings is a photograph of the band on Pouk Hill.

On that note, it may be an opportune time to wish the people reading these previews (both of them) a Merry Christmas. There will be a new thread in time for the first council by-elections of the new year on 12th January.

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