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Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
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« on: January 01, 2011, 09:52:47 AM »

The year's first UK local by-election is on 6 January:

PARK, Windsor and Maidenhead; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who has moved out of the borough.  This ward covers the southern fringes of the royal town of Windsor and also includes part of Windsor Great Park and the Legoland theme park.  At the last election in 2007 (results here) the Conservatives gained the ward from the Liberal Democrats on a big swing, polling 62% to 34% for the Lib Dems and 4% for Labour.
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2011, 03:29:41 PM »

Result from Windsor:
C 64.4 LD 15.8 Lab 15.1 Ind 4.8

A further big swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives.  Eight years ago the Lib Dems won this ward with 54% of the vote.

Oh, and here is the new councillor: http://www.waitrose.com/food/celebritiesandarticles/homecooks/0403069.aspx
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2011, 06:45:19 PM »

By-elections on 13 January:

OLDHAM EAST AND SADDLEWORTH - see separate thread.

CAMBORNE NORTH, Cornwall; caused by the resignation of an ex-Conservative councillor who has been charged with sexual assault.  This ward contains a relatively small part of the mining town of Camborne, together with the villages of South Tehidy and Tolvaddon Downs on the other side of the bypass (in Illogan parish), and a small set of terraces adjacent to the South Crofty tin mine (in Carn Brea parish), which was Cornwall's last tin mine when it closed in 1998.

Prior to 2009 this area was split between Illogan North and Illogan South wards on Kerrier district council.  In 2007 Illogan North elected two Lib Dems and a Liberal Party councillor (representing a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives) and Illogan South elected a Labour councillor and two Independents (representing an Independent gain from Mebyon Kernow, who didn't defend their seat).  On the old county council the area was split between Carn Brea (which was safely Labour in 2005) and Illogan and Portreath (which in 2005 elected an independent with just 23% of the vote over the Lib Dems, Liberals, Conservatives, Labour and another Independent; Labour polled 16% in fifth place).

The Illogan area seems to be the main predecessor and looking at the 2009 result for the new unitary Cornwall council Camborne North has inherited its fissiparousness.  The Labour councillor for the area retired and the Liberal tried his luck in a different ward, but it was the Conservatives who capitalised - the Lib Dems suffering unpopularity over the new unitary council.  The 2009 result was C 36.9 LD 19.4 Ind 15.9 MK 14.8 Lab 10.7 Lib 2.2.  Last year's general election result - in which the Conservatives narrowly gained the Camborne and Redruth seat - and the national polls could indicate further problems for the Lib Dems.

HUMBLEYARD, Norfolk County Council; caused by the resignation of the Conservative Leader of the Council who is off to do voluntary work in India.  This division is directly south-west of Norwich and is based on the villages of Cringleford and Hethersett on the road to Newmarket.  The 2009 result shows a safe Conservative division after the Lib Dems fell back badly; this is part of the safe Conservative South Norfolk constituency.
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2011, 04:07:50 PM »

Humbleyard was a Tory hold of course.

By-elections on 20th January:

BAGULEY, Manchester; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  Part of Cheshire until 1931, this ward is basically Wythenshawe west of the motorway and most of the housing is post-war and originally part of the Wythenshawe Estate.  The ward includes Wythenshawe Hospital and most of the large Roundthorn Industrial Estate.  Politically this is a safe Labour ward; from 2006-8 the Tories ran second; in 2010 the Lib Dems took second place but were still 23% behind Labour who won with 47% in a crowded field.  Seven candidates are contesting the by-election: the three main parties, UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and an Independent.

MARL, Conwy, North Wales; caused by the the resignation of a Conservative councillor for health reasons.  This two-seat ward covers the western half of the town of Llandudno Junction, which in profiles of the Aberconwy constituency is inexorably prefixed with the phrase "working-class".  Not that you'd guess this from the 2004 and 2008 results as there is a Lib Dem councillor here who has a very large personal vote and always tops the poll easily.  In 2004 he was the only opposition to the two Labour candidates; however in 2008 the sitting Labour councillor stood as an independent and finished a credible fourth, well ahead of the official Labour candidate; however, he lost his seat to the Conservatives whose candidates finished second and third.  Al will probably know more, but I would suspect that the poor Labour result in 2008 is very misleading and they have a good chance of making a gain here.  Candidates here are C/LD/Lab/Ind; yet again no Plaid candidate in a seat they hold in the Assembly.

OLTON, Solihull, West Midlands; caused by the death of Lib Dem councillor Honor Cox.  This ward is located about five miles south east from Birmingham city centre on the Warwick Road and the railway line to Leamington Spa.  I know nothing of the area, but this ward borders Acocks Green ward in Birmingham and politically is very similar, with a solid Lib Dem lead in the last few years.  In 2010 the Lib Dems led the Conservatives by 51-34.   With this vacancy and another Lib Dem Solihull councillor having been kicked off the council for non-attendance, if the Conservatives can make a gain they may be able to topple the LD/Lab coalition which runs Solihull at the moment.  Candidates are the three main parties plus the Greens and a Resident.

TONBRIDGE, Kent County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This is an urban two-seat county division which has exactly the same boundaries as the old Tonbridge Urban District and current parish.  The town is a large market town on the River Medway and an important railway junction on the South Eastern Main Line, 30 miles from Charing Cross station.  The most recent event of importance in the town was the 2006 Securitas depot robbery when more than £53 million in cash was stolen.  Politically this is a very Conservative town; the party holds all fifteen district council seats and won both county seats in 2009 with 47%, way ahead of their nearest challengers, the Lib Dems on 16%.  There are candidates from the three main parties, UKIP and the Greens.
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2011, 08:28:50 PM »

Thursday's results:

BAGULEY: Lab 70.8 C 11.4 UKIP 5.4 BNP 3.7 LD 3.7 Grn 3.6 Ind 1.4.  Big Lab hold, swing 14% C to Lab.  Huge collapse in the Lib Dem vote which was 24% last time, most of this went to Labour.  The BNP and LD candidates tied on 52 votes with the Greens one vote behind.

MARL: LD 40.4 C 28.1 Lab 22.5 Ind 9.0.  LD gain from Conservative.  Swing 8% LD to C although this is pretty meaningless.

OLTON: LD 39.7 C 39.4 Lab 9.4 Res 7.6 Grn 3.8.  LD hold with a majority of 9 votes; 8% swing LD to C.  The new councillor is press officer for Solihull's Lib Dem MP Lorely Burt.

TONBRIDGE: C 56.6 Lab 21.3 LD 9.8 Grn 6.4 UKIP 5.9.  Easy Tory hold; swing 1% C to Lab.

There is one by-election on Thursday 27th:

OLIVERS BATTERY AND BADGER FARM, Winchester; caused by the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of England's more romantic ward names, Olivers Battery was originally an Iron Age earthwork south-west of Winchester; later, during the English Civil War, it was the base for Oliver Cromwell's siege of the city.  Development here came after the First World War when a former Army veterinary hospital was gradually built on, and the ward is now part of the Winchester built-up area.  Politically this is a safe Lib Dem ward: last May's result was LD 60.2 C 35.1 Lab 4.7.
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2011, 07:06:11 AM »

Oliver's Battery and Badger Farm was a safe Lib Dem hold in the end.  LD 53.9 C 36.4 Lab 9.8 (and that's the best Labour performance here for years).  Turnout was very high for a local by-election, 51.2%.

By-elections on 3 February:

AMBERLEY AND WOODCHESTER, Stroud, Glos, and RODBOROUGH, Gloucestershire County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative who sat on both councils.  The Rodborough county division is south-west of Stroud town in one of the steepest parts of the Cotswolds; it includes the settlements of Rodborough (which is a suburb of Stroud) to the north-east, Amberley to the south-east, Woodchester in a deep valley at the centre of the division, and King's Stanley to the west.  As the name suggests, Woodchester has Roman connections.  Politically the district ward was safe Conservative when it was last fought in 2008, the Tories polling 54% and the Greens finishing second with 18%.  The county division was much closer in 2009, the Tories beating the Lib Dems by 35-31 with the Greens polling 21% in third place.  As King's Stanley is part of a safe Tory ward, most of the Lib Dem and Green vote comes from Rodborough itself, which at district level is a C/LD/Grn marginal with the Tories and Lib Dems currently holding one seat each.  The Greens have acknowledged this by fighting the county ward but not the district ward; all three main parties have candidates in both contests.

CARNOUSTIE AND DISTRICT, Angus; caused by the resignation of an SNP councillor due to ill-health.  Carnoustie is well-known for its Open Championship golf course, but the town itself was developed around the linen industry and today is a commuting base for Dundee, which is just ten miles away on the railway.  The ward itself includes a large hinterland running inland as far as the hamlet of Monikie.  Angus is one of the strongest areas for the SNP, and at the 2007 local elections the SNP had 47% of first preferences (Lab 22%, C 16%, LD 14%) and after transfers won two of the three seats, Labour taking the other.  The four main parties and an Independent are contesting the by-election.
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2011, 05:33:49 AM »

That Carnoustie result in full:

Ed Oswald  SNP  1289
Brian Boyd  Ind  1252
Ron Thoms  Lab  258
Eddie Wilmott  C  217
Charles Goodall  LD  93

Transfers
Boyd    1252 +202 1454
Oswald  1289 +137 1426
Thoms    258 -258
Wilmott  217 -217
Goodall   93  -93
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2011, 06:25:23 AM »

By-elections on 10 February 2011:

ROMNEY MARSH, Kent County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Mostly consisting of reclaimed marshland, Romney Marsh is named after the town of New Romney, which is one of the original Cinque Ports but is now some distance from the sea.  In the nineteenth century the economy was dominated by the Romney Marsh sheep, specially bred for the wet conditions; today the main export from the area is electricity, with Dungeness being home to a nuclear power station.  New Romney and Lydd are the main centres of population.  This is a safe Conservative division; in 2009 the Tories polled 47% with UKIP second on 24%; in 2005 the Lib Dems ran second.

WORKSOP NORTH EAST, Bassetlaw, Notts; caused by a Conservative councillor being kicked off the council for not attending any meetings in six months.  In mitigation, he is seriously ill; however, the result is that the Tories have lost their majority on the council.  This ward is an urban segment of Worksop between the Carlton and Blyth roads.  Politically it's a ward the Tories can win in a good year: Labour won all three seats in 2002, the Tories gained all three seats between 2003 and 2006, Labour took seats back in 2007 and 2010 and the remaining Tory seat, held in 2008, is now up.  Last year Labour polled 64% in a straight fight with the Conservatives, but in the previous three years the largest winning margin was 113 votes.  With the upturn in Labour fortunes (they convincingly gained Worksop's most middle-class ward at a by-election a few months ago) a Labour gain seems nailed-on here.
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2011, 02:06:35 PM »

By-elections on 17th February 2011 see the Conservatives defending three marginal wards.

BOURN, South Cambridgeshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is taking up a new job.  This ward consists of a series of villages on the A428 and A1198 west of Cambridge, the largest of which is Cambourne.  While the ward has a full slate of Conservative councillors, it's a marginal ward and there is normally a strong Lib Dem challenge here; at the last election in 2010 the Tories won by 45-39 with Labour polling 11%.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus the Greens and an Independent.

KENTON, Brent, North London; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Served by the Underground stations of Kenton (on the Bakerloo line) and Kingsbury (on the Jubilee line), this ward has a diverse population; at the 2001 census this ward was 57% non-white with almost 30% giving their religion as Hindu.  At the 2006 elections this was a safe Conservative ward and was also strongly Conservative in the 2008 GLA polls, but it's part of the safe Labour Brent North seat and last May a big swing to Labour turned the ward into a marginal, with the top Labour candidate just 115 votes away from the third Conservative.

QUARRY AND COTON HILL, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who is going back to live in Australia.  This bizarrely-shaped ward covers the centre of the town of Shrewsbury, located in a loop of the River Severn, together with the residential area of Coton Hill to the north-west and a north-eastern prong along St Michael's Street which is presumably there to make up the numbers.  The only previous result in 2009 saw the Conservatives defeat the Lib Dems by 44-36, with the Greens polling 14% and an outfit called the Albion Party getting 6%.  Surprisingly there was no Labour candidate, but that omission will be rectified in the by-election.
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2011, 05:28:16 PM »

After a fallow week, by-elections on 3 March:

BARNSLEY CENTRAL, caused by the resignation of a Labour MP following conviction: see separate thread.

KILPATRICK, West Dunbartonshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  This ward is named after the Kilpatrick Hills but confusingly does not include the village of Old Kilpatrick; instead it is based on the village of Duntocher, an old Roman settlement on the Antonine Wall which boomed after the Second World War with the building of an estate by Clydebank town council.  Duntocher was once the north-western terminus of Glasgow's municipal tram network.  Unsurprisingly it's a strong Labour ward: in 2007 Labour ran two candidates in this three-seat ward and both of them got a quota of first preferences, the lead SNP candidate taking the final seat; vote shares were Lab 55.9 SNP 32.8 C 8.3 SSP 3.0.  Just three candidates are standing in the by-election, Labour, SNP and Conservative.

MARCH NORTH, Cambridgeshire County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Once the county town of the Isle of Ely, the market town of March started off as a minor port on the River Nene, then became a railway centre (there is still a large marshalling yard in this ward).  Today the main employer in the ward is the top-security Whitemoor Prison.  In 2005 this was quite close between Conservative and Lib Dem, the Tories prevailing by just 99 votes in a straight fight, but the Lib Dems fell back sharply in 2009 when the shares were C 55.8 LD 30.5 Lab 13.7.  The by-election is between the three main parties; the Labour candidate is an 18-year-old who works in the local Tesco.

RIVERSIDE, Cardiff; caused by the resignation of a Plaid Cymru councillor for personal reasons.  This is a residential area located on the west bank of the Taff opposite Cardiff Castle.  The main local landmark is the Sophia Gardens cricket ground, home of Glamorgan cricket club and a Test match venue in 2009.  In 2004 the three seats in the ward split 2 PC 1 Lab, with Plaid gaining the Labour seat in 2008 when the shares were PC 43.9 Lab 32.4 C 12.2 LD 11.5.  The by-election is between the four main parties plus the Greens; bizarrely the Plaid candidate is the boss of the Lib Dem candidate, who has had some success on TV quizzes.

WALKDEN NORTH, Salford; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  Salford may be the roughest city in the known universe(TM) but Walkden isn't like that; located outside the M60 on the road to Preston, as well as the usual cotton mills it was a centre for coal-mining, with navigable tunnels linking the mines here directly to the Bridgewater Canal at Worsley.  Some bits of Walkden are quite posh, but this is the more working-class half and also includes some of the sink council estate of Little Hulton.  The ward consistently returns Labour councillors by comfortable margins and the 2010 result was Lab 50.9 C 21.9 LD 17.4 English Democrats 9.7.  The same four parties are fighting the by-election together with a BNPer.

WIGAN CENTRAL, Wigan; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor for health reasons.  Everyone has heard of Wigan because of the efforts of George Orwell at documenting the town as it was in the 1930s.  Everyone should know Wigan for coal-mining and textiles which is what made the pie-eating town rich (and such a hellish place to live).  Today the largest employers in the town are the Tote bookmakers, the near-bankrupt sports clothing chain JJB Sports and Heinz which allegedly has Europe's largest food processing factory here; other food exports from Wigan include Uncle Joe's Mint Balls and the World Pie-Eating Championships, while the town was also the home of George Formby, Britain's very own war crime.  Hopefully I've put you off the place by now as is my solemn duty as a Boltoner Smiley but having said all that Wigan Central ward (which covers the town centre and points north) is actually surprisingly middle class and usually a fairly safe Tory ward.  However, the Tory group on the council suffered a Stoke-style split a few years ago with four councillors wandering off to form the Wigan Independent Conservative Party; one of them stood for re-election in 2010 and split the Tory vote down the middle, allowing Labour to win easily; shares were Lab 42.2 C 25.9 WIC 18.6 UKIP 8.1 BNP 5.2.  The by-election is fought by Conservative, Labour, Wigan Independent Conservative and UKIP, so there is every chance of a similar right-wing vote split.
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2011, 04:00:13 PM »

Results from 3rd March:

Kilpatrick: Lab 60.1 SNP 32.9 C 7.0.  Lab win on first prefs
March North: C 52.4 Lab 24.0 LD 23.6.  7% swing C to Lab since 2009
Riverside, Cardiff: Lab 46.8 PC 30.3 C 10.2 Grn 7.6 LD 5.1.  Lab gain from PC
Walkden North: Lab 72.6 C 11.7 EDP 7.0 BNP 5.2 LD 3.5.  16% swing C to Lab
Wigan Central: Lab 48.6 C 27.2 Wigan Ind C 16.4 UKIP 7.9.  Lab gain from C; 3% swing C to Lab since 2010

By-elections on 10th March:

BRUNSWICK PARK, Southwark; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor after he was arrested by the Met's paedophile unit.  Not to be confused with the ward of the same name in Barnet, this ward covers territory either side of Peckham Road in Camberwell, around the eponymous park in the north and down to Maudsley (Psychiatric) Hospital and Denmark Hill railway station (on the South London Line and Catford Loop) in the south-west corner.  Also in the ward is Lakanal House, a tower block which caught fire in 2009 killing several people.  Southwark politics tends to be very geographical, with the Lib Dems winning in Southwark proper, Labour winning in Camberwell and Peckham and the Conservatives winning in Dulwich; this ward being in Camberwell makes it safe Labour.  In 2010 the vote shares were Lab 51.8 LD 22.7 Grn 14.5 C 10.9.  Candidates in the by-election are Lab, LD, Grn, C and Trade Union/Socialist Coalition.

ROSEGROVE WITH LOWERHOUSE, Burnley, Lancs; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor due to ill-health.  This ward is located at the west end of Burnley, straddling the M65 motorway at Rose Grove station.  It's one of the white areas of the town and very working-class.  The previous election results in this ward give a whole new meaning to the phrase 'all over the place': when it was created in 2002 Labour topped the poll but the BNP candidate and an independent (Marlene Disley) tied for the second seat.  Defending in 2003, the BNP failed to contest the ward (in the year they the topped the poll across the whole borough) and it was gained by an independent (Samuel Holgate, who had represented the predecessor ward before 2002).  In 2004 Marlene Disley who didn't stand for re-election and Labour won by 251 votes with the BNP second.  In 2006 the Lib Dems gained the ward from Lab with a majority of 54 votes over the BNP, Labour finishing third six votes behind the BNP.  In 2007 Holgate stood for re-election as a Lib Dem candidate but finished third, 37 votes behind the Labour and BNP candidates who tied for first place, Labour winning the drawing of lots.  In 2008 the Lib Dems gained from Labour by a majority of 146 votes over the BNP, Labour finishing a poor third.  A by-election on European election day in 2009 was held by the Lib Dems with a majority of 245 over the BNP.  Most recently in 2010 the Lib Dems held by 57 votes over Labour on the same day as they gained the Burnley parliamentary seat.  With that sort of history anything can happen and it's certain to be an interesting result.  Candidates are LD, Lab, BNP, C and Ind.
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2011, 11:24:57 AM »

Two by-elections this week.

PAISLEY SOUTH, Renfrewshire; caused by the death of a long-serving SNP councillor.  This appears to be a mainly residential area along the Neilston Road, including the Glenburn area and Dykebar Hospital.  In 2007 first preferences were Lab 31.6 SNP 28.5 LD 12.6 Ind (Caroline Martin) 10.3 C 6.9 Ind 5.5 Grn 1.8 Sol 1.4 Ind 0.9 SSP 0.6, but the seats went SNP 2 Lab 1 LD 1 mainly as a result of terrible vote-balancing by Labour, whose lead candidate topped the poll but had almost no surplus to transfer to his running-mate, who then got overtaken by former SNP candidate Caroline Martin on Conservative transfers.  Martin was the runner-up.  Looking at the 2003 results, the SNP are strong in Glenburn and further into the town centre while the Lib Dem vote comes from the area around the hospital.  Candidates for the by-election are the four main parties plus the SSP and a new indie.

PEMBURY, Tunbridge Wells, Kent; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who fell out with his local party.  This is a large village three miles east of Tunbridge Wells on the road from London to Hastings.  At local level it has been Lib Dem in the past but the Tories have topped the poll each year since 2004, and last year's result (C 59.4 LD 40.6) was pretty safe.  Candidates are Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP.
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2011, 04:37:09 AM »
« Edited: March 18, 2011, 04:39:10 AM by Chancellor of the Duchy of Smithills »

Results...

Labour easily held gained Paisley South and only just fell short of a win on first preferences: Lab 49.4 SNP 32.4 C 9.2 Ind 3.9 LD 3.2 SSP 1.9.  The Labour candidate was their second candidate in 2007.

Pembury was a surprising Lib Dem gain: LD 43.6 C 34.0 UKIP 22.4.  A correction to my preview above: I am informed that the Lib Dems actually won this ward in a 2005 by-election.
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2011, 05:11:07 AM »

By-elections on 24th March:

BELLINGHAM, Lewisham; caused by the death of a Labour councillor who had served for 40 years.  Served by Bellingham and Beckenham Park railway stations on the Catford Loop, this ward mainly consists of an inter-war council estate.  This is a safe Labour ward and the 2010 result was Lab 43.1 LD 26.7 C 19.0 Community Need Before Private Greed (part of Lewisham for People Not Profit) 5.8 Grn 5.4.  Should be an easy Labour hold.  Candidates for the by-election are three main parties, the Greens and the Socialist Alternative.

PONTYPOOL, Torfaen; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor under a cloud.  This ward covers the centre of the depressed town of Pontypool.  Labour were unopposed here in 2004 but in 2008 lost the seat to an Independent, the result being Ind 52.0 Lab 30.6 Peoples Voice 17.3.  The by-election sees a very large field, with candidates from Labour, Plaid and the Tories and no fewer than five independents.
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2011, 03:23:39 PM »

Results:

Bellingham: Lab 51.4 C 15.9 LD 15.6 Soc Alt 12.3 Grn 4.7.  Labour hold.  5% swing C to Lab.
Pontypool: Lab 31.2 Mike Harris 28.2 Williams 14.0 PC 8.8 Nigel Harris 8.1 Bousie 4.4 C 3.2 James 2.1.  Lab gain from Ind

Of the independent candidates, Ian Williams was the Torfaen People's Voice candidate for the Welsh Assembly in 2007.  Sarah Bousie polled half the number of votes that she received in the Miss Torfaen 2011 contest.

That's pretty much it for UK local by-elections until the main May local elections, with only one contest scheduled between now and then - Wick ward in the Highlands on 7th April.
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« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2011, 06:02:18 PM »

Last local by-election before 5 May.

7 April: WICK, Highland; caused by the resignation of an Independent councillor.  The last town before John o' Groats, Wick sends its local councillors to Inverness, more than 100 miles away by road.  Historically the town's economy was built upon herring, with at one point one-fifth of Britain's herring being landed here.  Today the herring have gone and North Sea oil has filled the gap, with supplies departing from the harbour and Wick Airport.  Recent political controversy here includes the proposed closure of the town's library and swimming pool with replacements in the Wick High School premises (which was behind the resignation that caused this by-election) and a failed biomass heat/energy scheme into which Highland Council sunk more than £13 million of council taxpayers' money.  In the 2007 election independents won the first two seats, with the final seat going to the Lib Dem candidate who started fourth but overtook the SNP candidate on Labour transfers; the first preference shares were Ind 51.9 SNP 16.9 LD 15.5 Lab 14.0 C 1.8.  Candidates for the by-election are the four main parties plus three independents; confusingly two of the independents are the unsuccessful SNP and Labour candidates from 2007.
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« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2011, 01:19:30 PM »

Having now had chance to draw breath after the May elections, the local by-elections are back with two contests on Thursday 19th May.

DYCE/BUCKSBURN/DANESTONE, Aberdeen City Council; caused by the death of a long-serving Lib Dem councillor.  This ward covers the north-west of the Aberdeen city council area.  Dyce is best known as the location of Aberdeen Airport, the main heliport for the North Sea oil industry, while Bucksburn is a residential area further towards the city centre and Danestone is a newish estate on the other side of the River Don.  When the ward was created in 2007 it voted SNP 36.2 LD 26.2 Lab 24.9 C 8.3 Ind 2.4 Grn 2.0, but the SNP only ran one candidate so the seats split LD 2 SNP 1 Lab 1, the second Lib Dem getting transfers from the SNP surplus and the also-rans to defeat the Conservatives for the final seat.  The ward is part of the Aberdeen Donside constituency which the SNP held at this month's Holyrood elections, at which the SNP councillor for this ward was elected to Holyrood from the regional list.  On that form an SNP gain should be in prospect.  Candidates are LD/SNP/Lab/C/Grn/Ind.

ST JOHNS AND BROOKWOOD, Surrey County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  This division covers the west of the town of Woking either side of the South Western Main Line and the Basingstoke Canal.  The division includes the Arts and Crafts suburb of Hook Heath to the east, part of the Knaphill area to the north and to the west the Brookwood Cemetery, the largest cemetery in Britain which was built in the 1850s to house the dead of London and was once served by its own railway station in London.  In 2005 and 2009 this was a highly marginal Conservative division, the Tories beating off the Lib Dem challenge by 187 votes in 2005 and just 63 votes in 2009 (C 43.0 LD 41.4 UKIP 11.8 Lab 3.8 ).  The division covers three wards of Woking Borough Council: St Johns and Hook Heath is strongly Conservative (the party polled 68% there earlier this month); Hermitage and Knaphill South is the main source of Lib Dem strength although their majority was slashed two weeks ago; Brookwood was last up in 2008 and its (live) voters delivered a Tory gain from Lib Dem by just 11 votes.  Candidates are C/LD/UKIP/Lab.
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2011, 10:51:56 AM »

No by-elections last week.  There is one by-election on 2nd June:

CANONS, Harrow; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This ward is at the north-east corner of the London Borough of Harrow and is served by Canons Park and Stanmore stations at the western end of the Jubilee Line.  This is the third most Jewish ward in England, with a Jewish population of 36% at the 2001 census.  Politically it's a very safe Conservative ward; since 2002 the lowest Tory score was 56.7% in a 2007 by-election which saw a further 8.5% for an independent who had failed to get the Conservative nomination, and in 2002 the Conservatives had 74.1% in a straight fight with Labour (this was the year that almost all of the Lib Dem candidates in Harrow messed up their nominations).  For more electoral information on Harrow I must point you to the website of 2002 Labour candidate for this ward Colin Gray.  The 2010 result was C 59.6 Lab 24.0 LD 16.4; candidates for the by-election are just the three main parties.
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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2011, 05:57:44 PM »

By-elections on 9th June:

BO'NESS AND BLACKNESS, Falkirk Council; caused by the death of an SNP councillor.  Borrowstounness (always abbreviated to Bo'ness) is a small town on the Firth of Forth about seven miles east of Falkirk.  It was once the eastern end of the Antonine Wall; in more modern times the town's main economy was based on its port and coal-mining, while now it's a commuter centre for Edinburgh and Falkirk.  In 2007 the shares of the vote were SNP 47.2 Lab 31.9 C 12.7 Ind 4.3 SSP 3.8, with the SNP winning one seat on first preferences and a second on transfers from the second Labour candidate, the top Labour candidate reaching quota on Independent transfers.  Since then there has been a by-election in November 2009 following the death of the other SNP councillor (the two elected in 2007 were brothers); the SNP held this in the first round, the votes being SNP 57.5 Lab 29.5 C 12.8 LD 2.8.  The ward is part of the Falkirk East seat at Holyrood which was an SNP gain last month.  Candidates for the by-election are SNP, Lab, C and Independent.

BROMPTON, Kensington and Chelsea; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This ward is at the eastern end of Kensington, served by Knightsbridge and South Kensington stations on the Piccadilly Line; for tourists it includes the Natural History Museum, the Science Museum, the Victoria and Albert Museum, the Brompton Oratory and Harrods.  Politically - this is affluent Kensington, what do you expect but a super-safe Tory ward?  That's exactly what you've got: last year the ward voted C 67.4 LD 19.4 Lab 13.2, and in 2006 the Tories polled 77.3%.  It would be a brave or foolish person who predicted anything other than a Conservative hold.  Candidates for the by-election are just the three main parties.

CHELMSFORD CENTRAL, Essex County Council; caused by the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  The county town of Essex, Chelmsford became an industrial centre in the 19th century, with Marconi setting up the world's first radio factory here; the town remains a major employment centre even though thousands of people commute from here to London.  This division covers the central business district and the Moulsham area to its south.  It was marginal LD/C in 2005 but the Lib Dems increased their majority in 2009, the votes being LD 44.5 C 33.6 Grn 8.2 Lab 7.7 BNP 6.1.  Candidates for the by-election are just the three main parties.

QUEENS GATE, Kensington and Chelsea; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Immediately west of Brompton ward (see above), this ward covers a more residential area between Kensington Road and Cromwell Road, served by High Street Kensington station on the District Line.  Apart from that, pretty much all the comments for Brompton ward apply equally to this ward; the shares of the vote last year were C 62.0 LD 19.3 Lab 12.1.  The by-election is being fought by the three main parties plus UKIP.

TAIN AND EASTER ROSS, Highland Council; caused by the death of an SNP councillor who had been elected as an Independent.  Tain is a town on the east coast of Ross and Cromarty located on the A9 and the Far North Line, most famous for being the home of the Glenmorangie Distillery; the ward includes a large chunk of Easter Ross as far south as Kilmuir on the Cromarty Firth.  This being the Scottish Highlands, individuals matter a lot more than parties; for what it's worth, the shares of the vote in 2007 were Ind 63.3 LD 16.2 SNP 12.0 Lab 3.8 C 3.2 SSP 1.5, with more than half of the Independent votes going to Alasdair Rhind who was easily elected in the first round.  His surplus enabled Alan Torrance (whose death caused this by-election) to move from fourth place into third, which position he held for the rest of the counting, ironically squeezing out the SNP candidate.  (The Lib Dem candidate won the other seat.)  Candidates for the by-election are SNP, Lib Dem and three independents.
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2011, 06:06:16 PM »


TAIN AND EASTER ROSS, Highland Council. Tain is a town on the east coast of Ross and Cromarty
The grammatically correct way to phrase that is "Tain is a town in Easter Ross". Tongue


That would then raise the question as to why the ward wasn't just called Easter Ross...
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2011, 03:09:27 PM »

Partly because half the ward's population is in Tain, and partly because the term Easter Ross sometimes is understood to include Dingwall, which is not in the ward.
The Black Isle, though also strictly speaking on the east coast of Ross & Cromarty (and more or less including the long-suppressed tiny county of Cromarty), is not in Easter Ross.

Cromartyshire had about thirteen separate pieces, one of which was Ullapool.  Which is on the other coast.  You can see why they got rid of it.
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2011, 05:44:12 PM »

Some extra snippets from the excellent Britain Votes blog:

* The Tory candidate in Brompton is Louis Mosley, grandson of Oswald.
* The former Lib Dem councillor in Chelmsford Central died while waiting for an operation that repeatedly got cancelled - and she was on the board of directors of the hospital involved.

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« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2011, 05:20:21 PM »

Tain and Easter Ross first preferences:
SNP 837
Fiona Robertson 811
Ruaridh Mackenzie 467
LD 307
Michael Herd 97

After transfers:
Fiona Robertson 1204
SNP 1037
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« Reply #23 on: June 11, 2011, 01:31:01 PM »

Ten by-elections next week so not as much detail as usual.

ABBEY, Dumfries and Galloway; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  This is a mainly rural ward covering the area south-west of Dumfries around the large hill of Criffel; the main settlement is the town of Dalbeattie.  First preferences in 2007 were C 33.8 Lab 28.1 SNP 17.8 Ind 15.4 LD 4.9, with the seats splitting C 2 SNP 1 Lab 1.  There was then a by-election in May 2008 which the Conservatives held, the shares being C 40.8 Lab 33.2 SNP 18.0 Ind 4.1 LD 3.9 and the 2PP C 54.0 Lab 46.0.  Candidates for this by-election are just C/Lab/SNP.

ARLLECHWEDD, Gwynedd; caused by the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  To quote Al in another place:
Quote
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All I can add to that is that the 2008 and 2004 results were both straight LD/PC fights with very similar results: the Lib Dems won 290-268 in 2004 and 296-265 in 2008.

BURTON TOWN, Staffordshire County Council; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  This division covers virtually all of the original town of Burton-on-Trent, and in particular includes all of the town's famous breweries.  This was one of only three Labour seats in Staffordshire that survived the Tory landslide of 2009, and even then the result was pretty close, Lab 34.4 LD 27.7 C 22.8 BNP 15.1.  Labour should perform much better this time.

BYKER, Newcastle upon Tyne; postponed from 5 May.  This is an inner-city ward east of the city centre, which was extensively redeveloped in the 1960s.  For non-Geordies Byker is most famous for the BBC children's TV Byker Grove, which gave the nation Ant and Dec.  Even before 2010 this was a safe Labour ward; the 2010 result was Lab 57.7 LD 24.3 C 9.2 Ind 8.8.  Candidates are the three main parties plus an Independent, the BNP and an outfit called Newcastle First of which I know nothing.

CREWE SOUTH, Cheshire East; postponed from 5 May.  This two-seat ward covers the area west of Crewe railway station along the Nantwich Road, including some railway works and Crewe Alexandra's football ground at Gresty Road.  Cheshire East has been re-warded since the previous election in 2008 which makes any comparison with previous results moot; for what it's worth one Labour and one Lib Dem councillor are standing for re-election.  There are two candidates from each of the three main parties.

ECKINGTON, Derbyshire County Council; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor who now has a politically restricted post.  Eckington is a small town north of Chesterfield just outside the Sheffield city boundary which consistently returns Labour county councillors.  The 2009 result was Lab 35.5 Ind 30.9 C 23.7 LD 9.9; the by-election is a straight fight between Labour and Conservative.

HULLBRIDGE, Rochford, Essex; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Hullbridge is a rather isolated village on the River Crouch, directly south of South Woodham Ferrers.  For some reason, the major party opposition to the Conservatives in Rochford district has rather broken down and the result is some seriously wacky voting patterns; in 2006-08 the ward was safe Conservative with the BNP third from 2007 onwards; in 2010, on General Election day, the Green Party came from nowhere to take the ward from the Conservatives with a majority of more than 100; last month the Greens subsided into third place with the Conservatives reasserting their normal large majority, this time over the English Democrats in second.  Candidates for the by-election are C/Grn/Lab/UKIP.

MANVERS, Rushcliffe, Notts; postponed from 5 May.  This two-seat ward covers the southern half of the village of Radcliffe on Trent, east of Nottingham on the road and railway line to Grantham.  On the basis of the 2007 result (C 74.4 Lab 25.6) it's very safe Conservative.  Candidates are 2 each C/Lab.

UWCHALED, Conwy; caused by the death of a Plaid Cymru councillor.  This is a rural ward based on the village of Cerrigydrudion, on the A5 London-Holyhead road.  It is named after the long-abolished Uwchaled rural district of Denbighshire.  Previous election results tell us very little: the ward was Plaid unopposed in 2008.  Candidates this time are C/Ind.

WESTERHOPE, Newcastle upon Tyne; postponed from 5 May after the Lib Dem candidate died on polling day.  Unlike Byker, Westerhope was originally a separate village about six miles west of Newcastle and was not incorporated into the city until 1974.  Until 2008 this was a safe Lib Dem ward, but Labour gained it in 2010, the vote shares being Lab 36.5 LD 33.0 C 24.3 BNP 6.2.
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« Reply #24 on: June 19, 2011, 06:22:31 PM »

By-elections on 23rd June:

AIRYHALL/BROOMHILL/GARTHDEE, Aberdeen; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor after he was charged with embezzlement from a local community centre.  This is a built-up area in south-west Aberdeen on the north bank of the Dee, running west from the Bridge of Dee.  First preferences in 2007 were LD 37.7 C 27.4 SNP 17.3 Lab 12.8 Ind 4.8 with the Lib Dems winning 2 seats and the Conservatives 1.  Pretty much anything could happen here - the Lib Dems are obviously on the slide and have run the council for eight years, this ward is part of the Aberdeen South and North Kincardine Holyrood seat which the SNP now hold, while the Conservative group in Aberdeen is suffering from civil warfare with half of the party caucus having jumped ship.  Candidates are LD/C/SNP/Lab/Grn/NF/2 Indies.

BINSTEAD AND FISHBOURNE, Isle of Wight; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This ward is on the north-east coast of the island; Fishbourne is a small village located on the estuary of Wootton Creek, while Binstead to the east is the western end of the town of Ryde.  The Isle got re-warded at the last election in 2009, at which the Conservatives defeated an Independent candidate by just four votes; the shares were C 42.5 Ind 42.1 LD 15.4.  Candidates are C/Ind/LD/Lab/UKIP; the Independent is the same one as in 2009.

COCKINGTON-WITH-CHELSTON, Torbay, Devon; caused by a Conservative councillor being elected Mayor of Torbay.  This ward is located just west of Torquay town centre and includes the former village of Cockington, now part of the town.  The results in 2007 and 2011 were both close, with the Conservatives winning three seats each time with majorities over the Lib Dems of 62 votes in 2007 and 100 votes last month; shares last month were C 36.0 LD 26.6 Lab 14.8 Grn 12.1 Ind 10.6.  Candidates for the by-election are C/LD/Lab/Grn and two Independents.

DEEPING ST JAMES, South Kesteven, Lincs; postponed from May after the death of a Lib Dem councillor who had been nominated for re-election.  The largest of several villages in the fens just north of Peterborough known as the Deepings, Deeping St James is perhaps best known as the home of the world darts champion Martin Adams.  This is a three-member ward which in 2007 had just four candidates, two Conservative, one Lib Dem and the then Labour county councillor, a colourful character who has changed his name by deed poll to Fair Deal Phil Dilks.  Shares of the vote in 2007 were C 37.7 LD 36.9 Lab 25.4.  This time there are full slates of Conservatives and Lib Dems, two Green Party candidates and two Independents (one of whom is Dilks).

ELMLEY CASTLE AND SOMERVILLE, Wychavon, Worcs; caused by no candidates being nominated for the May election (the Conservative councillor died shortly before nominations opened).  This is a long and narrow ward in the Vale of Evesham between the town itself and Bredon Hill, containing the villages of (from west to east) Great Comberton, Little Comberton, Elmley Castle, Netherton, Hinton on the Green, Sedgeberrow and Aston Somerville.  The 2007 result was C 72.4 LD 27.6 and the by-election is again a straight C/LD fight.

LLANEGWAD, Carmarthenshire; caused by an Independent councillor being disqualified for not attending any meetings in six months (due to ill-health).  This is a deeply rural area covering the lower Cothi valley until it flows into the Tywi at Nantgaredig, which is probably the largest settlement in the ward.  For what it's worth, the shares in 2008 were Ind 52.6 Ind 28.1 PC 19.4.  The by-election is a straight fight between an Independent councillor and Plaid.

ST ANDREWS, Great Yarmouth; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This is an urban ward in southern Great Yarmouth on the Suffolk side of the river, just north of Gorleston.  The seat was won convincingly by the Conservatives in 2008, 62.6-37.4 over Labour, but in May Labour narrowly gained the seat by 52.2-47.8.  The by-election is again a straight C/Lab fight.

SEABRIDGE, Newcastle under Lyme; postponed from 5 May following the death of the UKIP candidate.  This ward is located at the south end of the town of Newcastle under Lyme, between the Clayton Road and the M6 motorway.  It's a fairly well-off area and this is reflected in the voting patterns, which show a safe Conservative ward.  The 2010 vote shares were C 43.4 Lab 28.9 LD 19.2 UKIP 8.4 and the same four parties are standing this time.

STANTON, Derbyshire Dales; caused when the only candidate who was nominated for this ward in the May elections withdrew.  Located in the Derwent valley just north of Darley Dale, the ward includes the villages of Stanton in Peak and Rowsley in the Peak District National Park and Northwood and Tinkersley outside it.  The 2007 result was C 59.6 LD 40.4, although I believe the Conservative councillor then left the party.  Candidates this time are C/LD/Lab.
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