Barack Obama will win reelection
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Хahar 🤔
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« on: January 04, 2011, 08:33:07 PM »

Prediction:

Barack Obama will win reelection, and it will not be very close. This may or may not be accompanied by a Republican gain of the Senate.

Please feel free to bump this thread in two years.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2011, 08:41:04 PM »

I believe that you are wrong - unemployment rates beg to differ. I do believe that the GOP will take the Senate, however.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2011, 08:44:55 PM »

2011 will be a telling year.  If the economy strengthens this year like the experts predict, then the President will be able to breathe easier going into 2012.  If, however, the economy fails to live up to expectations, then he could be in some real trouble.  We'll get the first taste of how things are going this Friday when the December jobs report comes out.  Granted, it's for 2010, but it still is an important piece of news heading into 2011.  If you take the stock market for the first two trading days in 2011, the Dow has had two gains in a row, building off a better-than-expected 2010.  Of course, two days does not a year make, so only time will tell.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2011, 09:49:01 PM »

The problem is the debt.  Illinois and California are very likely to default on theirs before 2012.  The GOP Congress will likely refuse a bailout for political reason, leading to the collapse of the other states and prompting China to quit financing the national debt.  The economy goes to hell in a handbasket , bubbles pop and global sadness reigns as we enter the Second Great Depression (accompanied by more European nation defaulting and the Euro falling apart).
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2011, 09:51:14 PM »

Define "close," before I choose to hear you out. Smiley

Do you believe that Obama will win more electoral votes in 2012 then in 2008, Xahar?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2011, 10:11:41 PM »

Prediction:

Barack Obama will win reelection, and it will not be very close. This may or may not be accompanied by a Republican gain of the Senate.

Please feel free to bump this thread in two years.

I'll say Obama's map very close to '08, no change in the senate, House close to 50-50.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2011, 12:36:12 AM »

Define "close," before I choose to hear you out. Smiley

Do you believe that Obama will win more electoral votes in 2012 then in 2008, Xahar?

I'd bet on him getting a bit more if he does win.

Gun to my head, I'd bet on him winning too for several reasons. It's still very early though, blah blah blah, etc etc etc.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2011, 12:43:07 AM »

You're more optimistic than I am. While I'm starting to believe Obama would have a good shot against Palin or Gingrich, if the GOP nominates anyone half decent they should win solidly.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2011, 01:02:49 AM »

You're more optimistic than I am. While I'm starting to believe Obama would have a good shot against Palin or Gingrich, if the GOP nominates anyone half decent they should win solidly.

Hmm, define ''half decent"? I'm not seeing a lot potential in their field.

I'm not sure if I care if Obama wins or not at this point, by the way. I just think he will. I'm guessing Xahar feels the same way...
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2011, 01:13:28 AM »

I agree with Eraserhead.

Define "close," before I choose to hear you out. Smiley

Do you believe that Obama will win more electoral votes in 2012 then in 2008, Xahar?

Yes, I do.
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WillK
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2011, 08:31:56 AM »

2011 will be a telling year.  If the economy strengthens this year ....

I'd much rather the economy take off this year, but I really think its the first half of 2012 that matters from an electoral point of view.  All Obama needs is economic momentum leading up to November 2012.   

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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2011, 08:50:07 AM »

I believe that you are wrong - unemployment rates beg to differ. I do believe that the GOP will take the Senate, however.

I think that while unemployment will still be high, it is the trajectory of the rates that matters. After all, the vast majority of voters are still employed, and comfortable. If they feel the economy is doing well they won't spare too many thoughts to the x% of the workforce shut out from the recovery if unemployment has dropped some and is dropping. That's the lesson of Margaret Thatcher: you can write off a minority of the electorate if the majority feels things are getting better for them.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2011, 08:59:36 AM »

Heck I've said what Xahar said in earlier threads.......I totally agree.  He'll get more EV's in 2012.
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anvi
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2011, 09:36:29 AM »

I'm in Obama's corner.  But I'm puzzled about why everyone is so confident that Obama will outpace his electoral vote performance in '08 and win by more in '12.  Dissatisfaction with the GOP was sky high in 2008; all you had to do was say the word "change" and you were guaranteed 320 electoral votes.  Things won't be like that next year at all.  I think the state of the labor market will be the biggest factor, and taxes and the deficit will be big issues in '12 too.  I don't think Obama will get any Republican swing votes next time, and the TEA party will up the GOP returns in a number of states.  Obama will tick down in support from Independents, though not as badly as some think now.  I also worry considerably that the Democratic base will be, as they are now, lukewarm to hostile toward him; they won't vote against him of course, but they'll stay home.  If the base doesn't turn out for Obama next November, I think he'll be toast.

I'm not sure if it matters much who the Republican nominee is.  As long as the GOP doesn't run a nutter, the nominee, even if they are a bit lackluster, will compete well against an Obama whose appeal has considerably weakened.

I don't see any realistic scenario electorally in which Obama hangs onto Indiana and I doubt he'll get to keep North Carolina either.  I think keeping states like Florida and Ohio will in the end prove unsuccessful.  Virginia and Iowa will be dogfights.  Obama will mostly do fine in the west, though keeping Nevada with its persistently nasty foreclosure rates won't be easy.  If he wins, I think the final tally will surely be narrower than in 2008, and quite possibly much narrower.   

The only way I see Obama getting anywhere near (still not surpassing) his results in 2008 is if he either chews up or just outclasses the GOP nominee in the debates and the nation just decides that, while it's not happy with where things are yet, they don't want to risk handing a slow recovery over to someone who might not have clear solutions.

But I don't think this latter scenario will happen.  Obama's negatives and the lagging state of job recovery will hurt him.  But, at the same time, Obama is a lot politically tougher than his opponents like to think.  All these factors will, it seems to me, make 2012 a competitive race.     
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2011, 09:40:11 AM »

anvikshiki, I dont' see anyone on the pub side who can hold a candle to Obama right now........
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2011, 09:40:53 AM »

I'm in Obama's corner.  But I'm puzzled about why everyone is so confident that Obama will outpace his electoral vote performance in '08 and win by more in '12. 

Only one person has said more, and another said "by a lot." I have no confidence he's going to win states like NC again, but as of now, with the recognition that much can change, I still think he wins by a decent margin.
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anvi
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2011, 09:50:24 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2011, 09:56:11 AM by anvikshiki »

anvikshiki, I dont' see anyone on the pub side who can hold a candle to Obama right now........
I hope you're right Grumps.  I'm more worried about Obama's negatives than the opponent's positives.


Only one person has said more, and another said "by a lot."
You're right, brittain33; I shouldn't have said "everyone."  And I hope you're right about the result too.  I'm just not that confident at the moment.

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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2011, 03:24:04 PM »

I'm in Obama's corner.  But I'm puzzled about why everyone is so confident that Obama will outpace his electoral vote performance in '08 and win by more in '12.  Dissatisfaction with the GOP was sky high in 2008; all you had to do was say the word "change" and you were guaranteed 320 electoral votes.  Things won't be like that next year at all.  I think the state of the labor market will be the biggest factor, and taxes and the deficit will be big issues in '12 too.  I don't think Obama will get any Republican swing votes next time, and the TEA party will up the GOP returns in a number of states.  Obama will tick down in support from Independents, though not as badly as some think now.  I also worry considerably that the Democratic base will be, as they are now, lukewarm to hostile toward him; they won't vote against him of course, but they'll stay home.  If the base doesn't turn out for Obama next November, I think he'll be toast.

I'm not sure if it matters much who the Republican nominee is.  As long as the GOP doesn't run a nutter, the nominee, even if they are a bit lackluster, will compete well against an Obama whose appeal has considerably weakened.

I don't see any realistic scenario electorally in which Obama hangs onto Indiana and I doubt he'll get to keep North Carolina either.  I think keeping states like Florida and Ohio will in the end prove unsuccessful.  Virginia and Iowa will be dogfights.  Obama will mostly do fine in the west, though keeping Nevada with its persistently nasty foreclosure rates won't be easy.  If he wins, I think the final tally will surely be narrower than in 2008, and quite possibly much narrower.   

The only way I see Obama getting anywhere near (still not surpassing) his results in 2008 is if he either chews up or just outclasses the GOP nominee in the debates and the nation just decides that, while it's not happy with where things are yet, they don't want to risk handing a slow recovery over to someone who might not have clear solutions.

But I don't think this latter scenario will happen.  Obama's negatives and the lagging state of job recovery will hurt him.  But, at the same time, Obama is a lot politically tougher than his opponents like to think.  All these factors will, it seems to me, make 2012 a competitive race.     

A reasonable analysis for sure.

I agree the economy is likely to be the number one issue, but the widest held view among economists is that it's recovering.  I'd bet improvement, even if slow, would give Obama an advantage in the swing states.  And though Republican partisans want to outlaw the words "inherited a recession", I think most other people get it.  Unemployment was going to be bad.  And I think most people get that the Republicans obstructed.  I think more people will pay attention to the argument in a presidential election cycle.  It's rare to bounce a party from the White House after just one term.

At the end of the day, the Republicans espouse fairly unpopular positions: tax cuts for the rich.  Maximum corporate deregulation.  The Citizens United decision made by Republican-appointed justices- one of the least popular rulings of all time.  And in fact the vast majority of provisions in the healthcare bill are popular.  And a nice chunk of its unpopularity is from the Left.  The GOP nominee and the party in general in the next 2 years will bend over backwards to appease the Tea Party in ways that alienate the middle and rally the Democratic base.  A lot of Obama's core constituencies that propelled his 2008 victory are just not traditionally good at turning out in midterms.  When tens of millions of people are 2 years away from getting health insurance- and millions of others who fear they or loved ones might need it at any moment, they'll turn out.

I'm not counting on the Republicans having a trainwreck of a nominee but the smart money's on mediocre. Obama is a great campaigner.  No one knows. I'm usually pessimistic but I agree with the OP that the race is going to be less close than people now believe.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #18 on: January 06, 2011, 10:41:14 PM »

Historically, if a president is reelected, they are reelected by a larger margin than their first election.  Both Clinton and Reagan, who were doing worse than Obama in their approvals two years out from their reelection did better in that election.

I'm not saying that Obama will win by more than last election, but I think that the possibility shouldn't be discounted. 
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anvi
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« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2011, 11:17:06 PM »

There is another precedent to consider here though.  The three presidents who failed to win reelection bids in the last hundred years (Hoover, Carter, Bush '41) were all thrown out on bad economies.  The economy per se is in better shape than it was when Obama took office of course, and will almost certainly continue to improve.  But the labor market is still bad, and if it doesn't improve markedly in the next year and a half, that spells trouble for the president.

If, on the other hand, it does improve markedly, then I'd agree with all that's been said about precedent and Republican opponents, and Obama should be in good shape to win a second term.

There is a sort of cruel irony in all of this, insofar as the country has come to look upon the president as the "job-creator-in-chief," when in fact, no matter who is sitting in the oval office, he is nothing of the kind. 
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WillK
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« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2011, 11:21:48 PM »

...  The three presidents who failed to win reelection bids in the last hundred years (Hoover, Carter, Bush '41) were all thrown out on bad economies ....

And they each faced a high-caliber opponent.  Is there one this time?
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anvi
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« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2011, 07:56:13 AM »

Not yet, no.  But Clinton didn't look to everyone like a high-caliber opponent to a lot of people until after New Hampshire (although I thought he was high-calbier all along), and it occurs to me that a lot of the electorate were really unsure about Reagan until his debate with Carter right before the general election.

Please don't get me wrong, guys.  I'm in Obama's corner; I have been since he was a state legislator here in Illinois.  But I have always thought it important to separate who I am rooting for from analyzing the situation as objectively as I can so I can get the lay of the land.  As of now, the president needs to have some things break for him, and he has to get a solid message for the nation down.

And I think, to be honest, what I am really worried about is the Democratic base.  If what I see on this forum, combined with what I hear on lefty media, combined with what national polls register, is all true, than the Democratic base really does not like this president.  If that base in 2012 stays home, either through lukewarmness or hostility, or alternatively overconfidence, that spells trouble too.
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WillK
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« Reply #22 on: January 07, 2011, 08:15:30 AM »

Not yet, no.  But Clinton didn't look to everyone like a high-caliber opponent to a lot of people until after New Hampshire (although I thought he was high-calbier all along), and it occurs to me that a lot of the electorate were really unsure about Reagan until his debate with Carter right before the general election.

Good point.


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Another good point.  There could be the danger of a repeat of Nader's dishonest 2000 message that there was no meaningful difference between the two major party candidates.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #23 on: January 07, 2011, 08:44:34 AM »

I also think Obama will win by a greater margin than in 2008 Wink. he's leading every candidate in polls with that approvals... If he is able to improve his approvals, he'll easily win reelection.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #24 on: January 07, 2011, 09:24:26 AM »

I also think Obama will win by a greater margin than in 2008 Wink. he's leading every candidate in polls with that approvals... If he is able to improve his approvals, he'll easily win reelection.

My subjective view of it is,  unless the incumbent totally f's things up or does something to tank their base's support, they'll win re-election.

Bush 41 went back on his no new taxes pledge and even pubs wanted his head. 

Carter was simply horrible combined with an opponent like few incumbents will ever face.
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