I believe that you are wrong - unemployment rates beg to differ. I do believe that the GOP will take the Senate, however.
I think that while unemployment will still be high, it is the trajectory of the rates that matters. After all, the vast majority of voters are still employed, and comfortable. If they feel the economy is doing well they won't spare too many thoughts to the x% of the workforce shut out from the recovery if unemployment has dropped some and is dropping. That's the lesson of Margaret Thatcher: you can write off a minority of the electorate if the majority feels things are getting better for them.
