Barack Obama will win reelection

[WillK]

2011 will be a telling year.  If the economy strengthens this year ....

I'd much rather the economy take off this year, but I really think its the first half of 2012 that matters from an electoral point of view.  All Obama needs is economic momentum leading up to November 2012.   

[WillK]

...  The three presidents who failed to win reelection bids in the last hundred years (Hoover, Carter, Bush '41) were all thrown out on bad economies ....

And they each faced a high-caliber opponent.  Is there one this time?

[WillK]

Not yet, no.  But Clinton didn't look to everyone like a high-caliber opponent to a lot of people until after New Hampshire (although I thought he was high-calbier all along), and it occurs to me that a lot of the electorate were really unsure about Reagan until his debate with Carter right before the general election.

Good point.

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Another good point.  There could be the danger of a repeat of Nader's dishonest 2000 message that there was no meaningful difference between the two major party candidates.