I'm in Obama's corner. But I'm puzzled about why everyone is so confident that Obama will outpace his electoral vote performance in '08 and win by more in '12. Dissatisfaction with the GOP was sky high in 2008; all you had to do was say the word "change" and you were guaranteed 320 electoral votes. Things won't be like that next year at all. I think the state of the labor market will be the biggest factor, and taxes and the deficit will be big issues in '12 too. I don't think Obama will get any Republican swing votes next time, and the TEA party will up the GOP returns in a number of states. Obama will tick down in support from Independents, though not as badly as some think now. I also worry considerably that the Democratic base will be, as they are now, lukewarm to hostile toward him; they won't vote against him of course, but they'll stay home. If the base doesn't turn out for Obama next November, I think he'll be toast.
I'm not sure if it matters much who the Republican nominee is. As long as the GOP doesn't run a nutter, the nominee, even if they are a bit lackluster, will compete well against an Obama whose appeal has considerably weakened.
I don't see any realistic scenario electorally in which Obama hangs onto Indiana and I doubt he'll get to keep North Carolina either. I think keeping states like Florida and Ohio will in the end prove unsuccessful. Virginia and Iowa will be dogfights. Obama will mostly do fine in the west, though keeping Nevada with its persistently nasty foreclosure rates won't be easy. If he wins, I think the final tally will surely be narrower than in 2008, and quite possibly much narrower.
The only way I see Obama getting anywhere near (still not surpassing) his results in 2008 is if he either chews up or just outclasses the GOP nominee in the debates and the nation just decides that, while it's not happy with where things are yet, they don't want to risk handing a slow recovery over to someone who might not have clear solutions.
But I don't think this latter scenario will happen. Obama's negatives and the lagging state of job recovery will hurt him. But, at the same time, Obama is a lot politically tougher than his opponents like to think. All these factors will, it seems to me, make 2012 a competitive race.
A reasonable analysis for sure.
I agree the economy is likely to be the number one issue, but the widest held view among economists is that it's recovering. I'd bet improvement, even if slow, would give Obama an advantage in the swing states. And though Republican partisans want to outlaw the words "inherited a recession", I think most other people get it. Unemployment was going to be bad. And I think most people get that the Republicans obstructed. I think more people will pay attention to the argument in a presidential election cycle. It's rare to bounce a party from the White House after just one term.
At the end of the day, the Republicans espouse fairly unpopular positions: tax cuts for the rich. Maximum corporate deregulation. The Citizens United decision made by Republican-appointed justices- one of the least popular rulings of all time. And in fact the vast majority of provisions in the healthcare bill are popular. And a nice chunk of its unpopularity is from the Left. The GOP nominee and the party in general in the next 2 years will bend over backwards to appease the Tea Party in ways that alienate the middle and rally the Democratic base. A lot of Obama's core constituencies that propelled his 2008 victory are just not traditionally good at turning out in midterms. When tens of millions of people are 2 years away from getting health insurance- and millions of others who fear they or loved ones might need it at any moment, they'll turn out.
I'm not counting on the Republicans having a trainwreck of a nominee but the smart money's on mediocre. Obama is a great campaigner. No one knows. I'm usually pessimistic but I agree with the OP that the race is going to be less close than people now believe.
