Barack Obama will win reelection

[Mehmentum]

Historically, if a president is reelected, they are reelected by a larger margin than their first election.  Both Clinton and Reagan, who were doing worse than Obama in their approvals two years out from their reelection did better in that election.

I'm not saying that Obama will win by more than last election, but I think that the possibility shouldn't be discounted. 

[Mehmentum]

I think Obama will lose Florida and Ohio. 

I think you are right.  Both Ohio and Florida voted for Obama by a smaller margin than the country as a whole, but he really doesn't need those two states to win.  Obama performed much better in Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and to a lesser extent Virginia, and I think he will probably win in the first three.

If Obama looses Ohio and Florida, but wins Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa, then he will win the election.