UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 10 (East Midlands)

[Silent Hunter]

Constituency MP Name Party Prediction 
Amber Valley  Judy Mallaber  LAB Hold
Ashfield  Geoff Hoon  LAB Hold: An anti-Iraq backlash, but still safe. I don't expect he'll stay on as Defence Secretary though.
Bassetlaw  John Mann  LAB Hold
Blaby  Andrew Robathan  CON Hold
Bolsover  Dennis Skinner  LAB Hold: Is Skinner retiring? Even if he is (and he'll be sorely missed), this is an ex-mining area and is safe Labour.
Bosworth  David Tredinnick  CON Hold
Broxtowe  Nick Palmer  LAB Hold
Charnwood  Stephen Dorrell  CON Hold
Chesterfield  Paul Holmes  LIB Hold
Derby North  Bob Laxton  LAB Hold
Derby South  Margaret Beckett  LAB Hold: Don't bother betting against her.
Derbyshire North East  Harry Barnes  LAB Hold: Him of the anti-STW anti-war crowd. A lock.
Derbyshire South  Mark Todd  LAB Hold
Derbyshire West  Patrick McLoughlin  CON Hold
Erewash  Liz Blackman  LAB Hold
Gedling  Vernon Coaker  LAB Hold
Harborough  Edward Garnier  CON Hold
High Peak  Tom Levitt  LAB Hold
Leicester East  Keith Vaz  LAB Hold
Leicester South  Parmjit Singh Gill LAB gain from LD: He's an ethnic minority candidate in an ethnic minority area, but the protest vote won't be as noticeable. Respect will save their deposit, the Tories will 3rd place and there almost certainly will be a recount.
Leicester West  Patrica Hewitt  LAB Hold: She's in the Cabinet. She'll stay in and is tipped for Defence.
Leicestershire North West  David Taylor  LAB Hold
Loughborough  Andy Reed  LAB Hold
Mansfield  Alan Meale  LAB Hold
Newark  Patrick Mercer  CON Hold
Nottingham East  John Heppell  LAB Hold
Nottingham North  Graham Allen  LAB Hold
Nottingham South  Alan Simpson  LAB Hold
Nuneaton  Bill Olner  LAB Hold
Rugby and Kenilworth  Andy King  LAB Hold
Rushcliffe  Kenneth Clarke  CON Hold
Rutland and Melton  Alan Duncan  CON Hold
Sherwood  Paddy Tipping  LAB Hold
Stratford-on-Avon  John Maples  CON Hold
Warwick and Leamington  James Plaskitt  LAB Hold
Warwickshire North  Mike O'Brien  LAB Hold

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ashfield: Anti-War backlash in *Ashfield*?! No way. UDM used to run this area.

Bolsover: Fanatically Labour seat, Skinner or no Skinner

Bosworth: Wonder if "Borisgate" will have any impact in Woodrow Wyatt's old seat?

Harborough: A LibDem target. Ben knows the seat fairly well and IIRC he thinks they'll win it.

Leicester South: Soulsby is running again. Apparently Singh Gill (delete the "Singh" for leaflets in White areas...) has been caught up in some dismissal scandel or something.

Newark: possible upset.

Warwick and Leamington: if the Tories can't even win Eden's old seat back they aint going to even come close to winning Nationally

[Ben.]

Harborough: A LibDem target. Ben knows the seat fairly well and IIRC he thinks they'll win it.

I know the seat pretty well, a lot depends on what UKIP do, if their still making news then they may well save their deposit, the Liberals dominate the local council which was once a Tory stronghold, eliminating the few Labour redoubts that once existed at the same time… but there is a strong vote for Garnier, it’ll be close… but its still iffy, it is the Liberals 24th Target seat though and a lot of literature is arriving their according to the folks I know there.   

Leicester South: Soulsby is running again. Apparently Singh Gill (delete the "Singh" for leaflets in White areas...) has been caught up in some dismissal scandel or something.

Soulsby is indeed running again and Gill has had the visibility of a stealth bomber while attracting a similar degree of flak, there’s an investigating into him verbally assaulting a council worker in front of a number of other councillors and at the same time he was involved in some kind of scam with the Taxi drivers in the city, but its murky and seems to have been killed-off. If Gill doesn’t start campaigning soon (in complete contrast to Teather in Brent he hasn’t lifted a finger) he’s dead in the water, Respect will run Ridley again and she’ll win a fair few votes in the poor and largely Muslim areas like Highfields and Spinney Hills and the Tories will come third (despite some gains on the council), as things stand at the moment Labour are probably slightly ahead and that lead is going to depend on turnout on the largely white Eyres Monsel and Saffron Estates.

[English]

Agree apart from....

High Peak- CON Gain
Rugby and Kenilworth- CON Gain
Warwick and Leamington- CON Gain

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Agree apart from....

High Peak- CON Gain
Rugby and Kenilworth- CON Gain
Warwick and Leamington- CON Gain

High Peak is a weird place. IIRC the local M.P is a good local one though...
Rugby (working class) should never have been placed in the same seat as Kenilworth (affluent, snobby)

[Silent Hunter]

Ashfield: Anti-War backlash in *Ashfield*?! No way. UDM used to run this area.

I'm talking about Geoff Hoon, who hasn't been the best Defence Secretary. He's associated with many of the Iraq mistakes plus the whole Hutton problem. IMO, he needs the sack. The backlash will be nowhere enough to unseat him?

Who are the UDM?

[English]

High Peak is very wierd indeed.
At the moment, the big Labour element comes from the grim Manchester overspill estate at Gamesley. An inner city sink estate cast adrift in the middle of Pennine moorland. Strange indeed.

[minionofmidas]

High Peak should be a Labour Hold.

[English]

I don't know, I think the Tories will gain High Peak. It's a rural (and very beautiful) seat. Away from Gamesley it's also pretty well-off, with lots of cosy moorland stone villages.
The LD vote will rise considerable to perhaps 21% allowing the Tories to sneek in by a narrow majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who are the UDM?

Scabs

[Ben.]

LibDem and Tory coalition on Leicester Council collapsed last night and the idiot leading the Labour group’s formed a minority administration (20 Labour Councillors to 24 LDs and 11 Tories) that will be unable to do anything and what’s more this is against the direct advice of the Regional Party leadership and the NEC! Thankfully the signs are that the Party is coming down hard on this so it should be over by Christmas... but this really helps the LDs and the Tories while suddenly making life difficult for Labour in Leicester South and Leicester West… that said there’s still plenty to hammer Gill on and Hewitt and Vaz are very much “safe”       

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDem and Tory coalition on Leicester Council collapsed last night and the idiot leading the Labour group’s formed a minority administration (20 Labour Councillors to 24 LDs and 11 Tories) that will be unable to do anything and what’s more this is against the direct advice of the Regional Party leadership and the NEC! Thankfully the signs are that the Party is coming down hard on this so it should be over by Christmas... but this really helps the LDs and the Tories while suddenly making life difficult for Labour in Leicester South and Leicester West… that said there’s still plenty to hammer Gill on and Hewitt and Vaz are very much “safe”       

Local politics, eh?

[Ben.]

LibDem and Tory coalition on Leicester Council collapsed last night and the idiot leading the Labour group’s formed a minority administration (20 Labour Councillors to 24 LDs and 11 Tories) that will be unable to do anything and what’s more this is against the direct advice of the Regional Party leadership and the NEC! Thankfully the signs are that the Party is coming down hard on this so it should be over by Christmas... but this really helps the LDs and the Tories while suddenly making life difficult for Labour in Leicester South and Leicester West… that said there’s still plenty to hammer Gill on and Hewitt and Vaz are very much “safe”       

Local politics, eh?

Just so long as the Regional Party comes down hard on it and boots Willmott out, he seems to have circumvented Party rules anyway so if Kennedy and Metcarf hold their never on this (and both are pretty mad) then Willmott may well go down, Labour will step down and a new Labour leader will emerge on the council.     

[Silent Hunter]

There are reports that Kilroy-Tan will stand for Veritfarce in Ashfield, Geoff Hoon's seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are reports that Kilroy-Tan will stand for Veritfarce in Ashfield, Geoff Hoon's seat.

He as good as denied that (and Boston & Skegness) a few days ago though...
Methinks he's going to keep the rumour/denial trick up for a while (typical media hack).
I reckon he might run in Bosworth (used to be Wyatt's seat after all...) I know from a local spy that he's been in Hinckley a lot...

[Ben.]

There are reports that Kilroy-Tan will stand for Veritfarce in Ashfield, Geoff Hoon's seat.

He as good as denied that (and Boston & Skegness) a few days ago though...
Methinks he's going to keep the rumour/denial trick up for a while (typical media hack).
I reckon he might run in Bosworth (used to be Wyatt's seat after all...) I know from a local spy that he's been in Hinckley a lot...

If he runs in Bosworth it could let us (labour) in through the middle might even have a nock on effect in Blaby and Harbourgh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I reckon that the Great Faked Tan One will keep the media waiting as long as possible.

[Silent Hunter]

As we all should now know, it's Erewash.

The only thing this seat had going for it previously was a funny name. Now it's one of the key seats in this region.

What are your thoughts on the result.