US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[nclib]

They could have forced another VRA seat....

I don't disagree, but the same census that La. is losing a seat, it would look bad and partisan for Obama and the DOJ to do so.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They have the racial breakdown (which is a fairly close voter proxy in Louisiana) but does anyone know where I could get ready information on the actual vote of the 2008 election within these new districts (I'm new at this)?  I'd like to know how safe the Republican districts would be in another Democratic blowout election.

SSP has the Presidential numbers for the new districts:

LA-01 - 72.7 McCain, 25.3 Obama
LA-02 - 73.4 Obama, 25.4 McCain
LA-03 - 64.3 McCain, 34.1 Obama
LA-04 - 58.9 McCain, 39.9 Obama
LA-05 - 62.0 McCain, 36.7 Obama
LA-06 - 67.5 McCain, 30.9 Obama

[lowtech redneck]

Oops...

Thanks!

[Miles]

They could have forced another VRA seat....

I don't disagree, but the same census that La. is losing a seat, it would look bad and partisan for Obama and the DOJ to do so.

LA is about 33% black, so minorities should have another seat, IMO.

But yeah, I agree.

[minionofmidas]

They could have forced another VRA seat....

I don't disagree, but the same census that La. is losing a seat, it would look bad and partisan for Obama and the DOJ to do so.

LA is about 33% black, so minorities should have another seat, IMO.

But yeah, I agree.

Are you aware of the Cleomander and the case law around it?

[Miles]

No.

[minionofmidas]

That's what it took in the 90s. It was used for two elections, then struck down by the Supreme Court.

[Miles]

I always wondered what the story behind that funky district was.

But surely a cleaner district could be drawn...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I always wondered what the story behind that funky district was.

But surely a cleaner district could be drawn...

Doubt it. The blacks are too spread out.

[krazen1211]

I always wondered what the story behind that funky district was.

But surely a cleaner district could be drawn...

Doubt it. The blacks are too spread out.

http://www.legis.state.la.us/archive/111es/HB42Original.pdf

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Alright, I'm a bit surprised at that, but point taken. Still, it's not pretty, and it splits most parishes in the 5th. Would it survive a court challenge? We'll never know.

[Verily]

You can do a second black-majority seat by doing something like NC-12. Go along I-49 and US-167 to connect from New Iberia, through Lafayette, Alexandria and Natchitoches all the way to Shreveport. You'll need to create an arm out to either Lake Charles or Monroe to finish it, but it's a little bit neater than the 90s version (which was drawn in quite so convoluted a fashion in part to ensure that the surrounding districts remained sufficiently Democratic to elect more Democratic congressman).

[BigSkyBob]

The older district had a higher Black percentage than some of the more compact alternatives.

[Bacon King]

Are you aware of the Cleomander

Personally, I prefer to call it the "mark of Zorro"

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The last time I tried to do a map of GA, the 2nd ended up looking like that.


Sorry, BK.

[jimrtex]

I always wondered what the story behind that funky district was.

But surely a cleaner district could be drawn...

If you look carefully, there are fingers into Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Ruston, Monroe, Alexandria, and Lafayette.  With the primitive computer equipment of the era they were unable to get to Lake Charles, Houma, and Bogulusa.

[krazen1211]

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/08/legislative_black_caucus_will.html

Rep. Patricia Smith, D-Baton Rouge, said unless an individual wants to challenge it or a national group wants to fight the new districts in court, they will probably remain as they are. The map was cleared last week by the U.S. Department of Justice. "We've got our hands full with the (state) House seats," Smith said.



Not surprising.

[Miles]

Something I did in my boredom as the hurricane passed through:

This would be as close to 3-3 as you could get in Louisiana.




CD1: R+27

Pretty similar to the district that Scalise actually got. He's one of the Republicans that I like the most in Congress (he's done some good work with Landrieu on local issues), so I kept his seat basically intact.

CD2: D+17

This is on 52% Black VAP, which should be enough for preclearance. Again, similar to the actual district.

CD3: R+27

The 3rd becomes one of the three votes sinks where McCain won by almost 3:1. Landry's odd's of winning a primary would slightly improve under this map, as this map keeps Terrebone in the 3rd, but I'd still expect Boustany to retain this seat. Maybe I could draw a district for Chris John in addition to the 3 others Democratic seats in this map. 4-2 would be nice...

CD4: R+7

This is about as D-friendly as I could make the Shreveport district. Its down to 53% McCain, thanks to the hooks into Monroe and Alexandria. Landrieu should have won with 57-58% here and Flemming should have lost the open-seat contest here by about 5 points in 2008. The Democrats would still need to do some work here, as this seat would have probably flipped in 2010; in any case, should be well within reach for a Blue Dog.

CD5: R+28

Alexander gets the third R vote sink. This is something of a "leftovers" seat; its keeps the  most the parishes along the MS border but gets the R parts of Rapides and Ouchita and then finally reaches south to absorb the horrendously red Livingston parish. 'Interesting to think that the district that Huey Long was born in has almost a 70% R average!

This is also the most racially polarized district in the state. The electorate here is 76.6% white VAP, 74.1% McCain; meaning McCain won 97% of the white vote. In terms of the polarization, the other 2 heavily R district weren't far behind; McCain got 96% of whites in CD1 and 92% in CD3.

CD6: R+2

This would be a fairly solid D seat by state standards; it even actually voted for Obama. The only threat would be Cassidy running, but it would even then be a tossup at best. The best candidate here would be State Representative Steven Ortego; he's 28 and I think he could be a fresh face for the LA Dems going forward.
I would have normally drawn this district up to Alexandria to pick up black voters, but I used that instead to bolster the 4th; this necessitated the hand into Lake Charles. This district is 41% black VAP, so Ortego would only need about 17-20% of the white vote to win, which should come pretty easily.

[krazen1211]

New Orleans is the fastest growing city in the nation. Does anyone know if they are on pace to regain the 7th district?

I am contemplating how the legislature can cleave New Orleans to create another Republican district.

[Miles]

Yes, people are, thankfully, coming back to New Orleans after Katrina.

I doubt it will be enough to get a 7th CD back though; in New Orleans, we're not even back up to our pre-Katrina numbers. Even without the population loss from the storm, Louisiana was still on track to lose CD7, IIRC.

[RBH]

Made this map out of boredom, taking on the concept of a borderline VRA seat, in a slightly unconventional way



LA1 (Scalise): 75.5W/16B/5H, 74M/24O, 68R/32D
LA2 (Richmond): 43W/44B/8H, 58O/40M, 63D/37R
LA3 (Landry or Boustany): 68W/23B, 66M/32O, 62R/38D
LA4 (Fleming): 73W/21B, 72M/27O, 67R/33D
LA5 (Alexander): 72W/22.5B, 68M/30.5O, 63R/37D
LA6 (open): 30W/65B, 69O/30M, 72D/28R

[Mr.Phips]

There was absolutely no reason not for the Obama DOJ to push for a new black majority seat here, in Alabama, and in South Carolina.  I guess he and black Bob Saget(Holder) love having a Republican House. 

[Bacon King]

There was absolutely no reason not for the Obama DOJ to push for a new black majority seat here, in Alabama, and in South Carolina.  I guess he and black Bob Saget(Holder) love having a Republican House. 

Because 201 to 204 Democratic Congressmen is the difference between whether there's a Republican House or not?

[Meeker]

My suspicion is the DOJ didn't want to press the boundaries of the VRA for fear that the whole thing could get thrown out. Of course, that may end up happening anyways.

[Mr.Phips]

There was absolutely no reason not for the Obama DOJ to push for a new black majority seat here, in Alabama, and in South Carolina.  I guess he and black Bob Saget(Holder) love having a Republican House. 

Because 201 to 204 Democratic Congressmen is the difference between whether there's a Republican House or not?

The more seats you have is always better.