US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[DINGO Joe]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/louisiana/#Dem

Eh you can make a reasonably compact 2nd black district.

On 2010 racial figures. I'm skeptical that will continue to be the case in 2020.

Why is that?

[Nyvin]

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

It's also possible to draw a black district with Lafayette+Baton Rouge and then draw a non-majority Black New Orleans district which would still very likely elect an African-American.

I think this is the much better option for Democrats long term.

[lfromnj]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

[Oryxslayer]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

Richmond has never been anything even remotely resembling a team player though (in contrast to someone like, say, G.K. Butterfield), so it's hard to say for sure what he'll do.

[lfromnj]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

Lucy Clay needed a D+25 to be happy, idk about Richmond

[morgieb]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

Lucy Clay needed a D+25 to be happy, idk about Richmond

O/c in St Louis far more whites are Democratic than in New Orleans. Plus he had Carnahan who was drawn out of a seat running against him in a primary too, Richmond doesn't have that problem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

[Skill and Chance]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

That's really interesting.  It seems like the main thing legislative Dems need is 3 or more separate cities that are significant vs. statewide?  LA has NOLA, Baton Rouge and Shreveport (plus smaller cities in Cajun country that are no longer Dem).  NC legislative Dems have held up better than GA legislative Dems in recent times despite the Biden/Warnock/Ossoff wins in GA, probably for the same regional distribution reasons?

I do strongly expect LA to trend Dem over the decade (continuing film industry/artsy migration to NOLA + Jefferson Parish finally gives out like the ATL suburbs did last year). 

[Gass3268]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

Troy Carter said he's cool with losing some strength for a second majority-minority district.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1440026653003063299?s=20

[Lognog]

Is it possible to make two compact black-majority seats or not?

I've made a bunch of non-compact ones but they don't look quite as good as I'd like

It's harder now than it was last decade

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1462566935200251905

JBE indicates he will veto unfair maps.

Does anyone know when the two Democrats elected to the state house in the November 13 special elections take office?

[Skill and Chance]

Note a rural Dem switched to Independent earlier this year, so there are now 3 I's.  R's would need 2 of the 3 I's to override a veto, 2 are rural, one represents part of New Orleans. 

Note there was a high profile culture war bill in July after her switch where the veto was sustained.  There were only 68 votes to override, all of the Republicans.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to make 2 safe Dem seats that are almost Black Majority. And proportionality wise, it's very fair.

District 5 is shaped like a seahorse lmao.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/54bca02c-e8c0-4ecf-bc2c-ddb071e179b1

[GALeftist]

A modest proposal. Yellow and green are both 50.1% black by CVAP. Hilariously, this got a 100 for Minority and Proportionality and below 20 for all other metrics

[patzer]

Just for fun I thought I'd see how much I could gerrymander Louisiana.



By 2016-20 average the districts are D+10.4, D+10.0, D+7.0, D+1.7, R+61.1, and R+69.8.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Just for fun I thought I'd see how much I could gerrymander Louisiana.



By 2016-20 average the districts are D+10.4, D+10.0, D+7.0, D+1.7, R+61.1, and R+69.8.

As god intended

[Biden his time]

Bumping in light of the Alabama decision

Louisiana has some 170K more Black people than Alabama does.
Any configurations you all have?

[Oryxslayer]

We don't know what the end result here would be yet, but I will note in preparation for maps that one can draw a 50% BVAP seat without using Shreveport or the counties adjacent to Vicksburg. BR + North Lafayette + some surrounding environs are all that is needed. This does push the New Orleans seat below 50% BVAP, but it doesn't need to be that high to perform.

Now why do I note this? Well, while these seats are compact and reflect Gingles, they give middle fingers to the R incumbents. Scalise and Grave's seats would see major overhauls, and cutting Lafayette is likely undesirable by Higgins. So, if there is to be a second AA seat, it would likely be less compact than ideal specifically to get the GOP incumbents that matter on board.

[BoiseBoy]

Louisiana is moving fast. House expects to pass a map by February 5.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1487140577061838854?s=20&t=MvTbTzS1ix6...

[Schiff for Senate]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

I was actually able to create a map in MS with 2 black districts, though both only have plurality, not majority-black VAPs and populations: https://districtr.org/plan/103583. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th aren't too compact, particularly not the 2nd and 3rd, but nonetheless, I think it could happen and could produce a 2-2 map.

Louisiana is moving fast. House expects to pass a map by February 5.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1487140577061838854?s=20&t=MvTbTzS1ix6...

Edwards should remember he has veto power and they don't have the votes to override. He can hold out for a 4-2, I think, or at least a 4-1 with one dicey seat.

[I’m not Stu]

Is this a decent map with two performing districts?

[BoiseBoy]

A bunch of bills have been filed today with congressional draft plans. There are a lot of 4-2 maps, but there are also least change 5-1 maps as well.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1488347068070510593?s=20&t=PDwhGI7iks5...

[ProgressiveModerate]

One map creates 2nd black seat and another keeps the LA-02 snake least change map (Dem vs R map)

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 5 maps. 1, 3 and 5 appear to make a 2nd black seat, while 2 and 4 don't. Things about to get heated.