US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[lfromnj]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

[BoiseBoy]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

Oh shoot the 2nd map isn't a congressional map good catch

[ProgressiveModerate]

So basically we have 1 least change map that keeps the Snake and 3 that create a 2nd minority/Dem leaning seat.

The least change map was introduced by R and the 3 2nd Dem seat maps are introduced by Dems

[BoiseBoy]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

Oh shoot the 2nd map isn't a congressional map good catch

Yeah I double checked and it's for the Louisiana Public Service Commission.

[MillennialModerate]

So this is obviously going to just be 1 Dem seat right?

I feel like the play in states with split government is whoever has the majority on the court just runs out the clock and gets there way anyway. Dems have no chance with a court being split 5-1-1

[I’m not Stu]

So this is obviously going to just be 1 Dem seat right?

I feel like the play in states with split government is whoever has the majority on the court just runs out the clock and gets there way anyway. Dems have no chance with a court being split 5-1-1

Could a 5-1 map similar to this happen?

 

[BoiseBoy]

So this is obviously going to just be 1 Dem seat right?

I feel like the play in states with split government is whoever has the majority on the court just runs out the clock and gets there way anyway. Dems have no chance with a court being split 5-1-1

Probably going to be the least change map proposed by Sen. Hewitt or something very similar. As much as I would like to see a second black district (plurality or otherwise), the legislature will not pass it and JBE will not have enough leverage to push for a second seat.

[Skill and Chance]

So this is obviously going to just be 1 Dem seat right?

I feel like the play in states with split government is whoever has the majority on the court just runs out the clock and gets there way anyway. Dems have no chance with a court being split 5-1-1

Probably going to be the least change map proposed by Sen. Hewitt or something very similar. As much as I would like to see a second black district (plurality or otherwise), the legislature will not pass it and JBE will not have enough leverage to push for a second seat.

I mean, he would definitely veto and send it to court, which could be favorable-ish given the Alabama decision we just saw.

However, it's now in question whether JBE still has his job at the point it gets to the governor's desk.  Sadly, he may not be as ethical as he appeared, and if that issue has legs, the State Senate could remove him on a party line vote (though, given the allegations, it's unlikely to be a pure party line vote if it escalates to an impeachment trial). 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3bb395b3-c1e8-4885-96e0-ecfcfc5ccdd7
surprised that no one has proposed a map like this yet. Two pretty safe seats, both 49.7% black, the largest minority in both. Maybe could make them majority with a bit of shifting around

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PiperHutchBR/status/1488613266087723014?s=20&t=99XrPOz3B...

Note there is currently a suit against the supreme court map, both on OMOV grounds since it hasn't been updated in decades, and on the grounds that there should be a second AA seat. The leg has plans to actually remap the court lines this year unlike last cycle, but they may only end up addressing point 1 rather than both. However, as the map shows, if one considers it difficult but not hard to get two AA seats above 50% BVAP on a 6 seat map, it is incredibly easy on a 7 seat one.

[lfromnj]

IIRC Scotus has already ruled against OMOV for State supreme court districts. 7 districts is actually pretty nice for Lousiana. 6 is awkard af to deal with.

[Oryxslayer]

IIRC Scotus has already ruled against OMOV for State supreme court districts. 7 districts is actually pretty nice for Lousiana. 6 is awkard af to deal with.

Yeah though having one seat be 150K underpop and one 150K over - thank you Katrina - doesn't really pass the smell test, which is why the leg has put the court map on the schedule. Similar situation as IL earlier.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1488617615962558465

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1488617615962558465

Yeah that shows the "limits" of LA. In a state roughly 1/3 AA it is simple to get 1/3 of seats to be AA seats...but then you have to reach. Anyway, the GOP Leg will likely be giving JBE a least change plan to veto:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1488622417627037703?s=20&t=99XrPOz3...

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1488617615962558465

Yeah that shows the "limits" of LA. In a state roughly 1/3 AA it is simple to get 1/3 of seats to be AA seats...but then you have to reach. Anyway, the GOP Leg will likely be giving JBE a least change plan to veto:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1488622417627037703?s=20&t=99XrPOz3...

Least change is not surprising at all, It'll probably be closer to the Hewitt plan. Bel Edwards will veto, and then the LA House will fail to override it. I wonder what the court will do.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Have democrats considered bribing the cajuns?

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting thing is both maps make LA-06 noticeably less red, though not enough to be competitive. Wonder why considering the other seats are Uber safe and LA-02 isn’t severely overpopulated or anything.

Also interesting that all the Dem maps with the 2nd black seat make it extremely safe rather than some of the Biden + 6 or Biden + 10 configs I’ve seen here.

[Oryxslayer]

Also interesting that all the Dem maps with the 2nd black seat make it extremely safe rather than some of the Biden + 6 or Biden + 10 configs I’ve seen here.

That's the thing about redistricting in the deep south. You either get a mandated minority seat or a bleached white seat - zero sum. In a fair world there would be some more variation, bot not much. Either LA is found to be legally required to provide for a second AA seat, and therefore makes it performing so that there arn't time and money consuming MS SD-22 style cases, or it isn't and 5-1 remains.

Also, somewhat related, but the diagonal was submitted as a proposal seemingly for variations sake.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1488666890599907334?s=20&t=f_Xb32jL...

[patzer]

Surprising how ugly most of these maps are. I tried making a more compact one. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2e3ecff-2da9-42f2-b9bb-d467c78a4a52

In this map the 2nd district is plurality-black CVAP despite only staying in the New Orleans area- there's no need to expand it outwards any further. And the 6th is Biden+3 so would probably stay R in 2022 but would be competitive in general. 5th is Trump+16 so almost certainly safe but could conceivably fall with a strong candidate in a favourable midterm.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Surprising how ugly most of these maps are. I tried making a more compact one. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2e3ecff-2da9-42f2-b9bb-d467c78a4a52

In this map the 2nd district is plurality-black CVAP despite only staying in the New Orleans area- there's no need to expand it outwards any further. And the 6th is Biden+3 so would probably stay R in 2022 but would be competitive in general. 5th is Trump+16 so almost certainly safe but could conceivably fall with a strong candidate in a favourable midterm.

Part of me is immensely displeased by the fact your 2nd splits both Orleans and Jefferson parishes, while another part of me is pleased by the compactness.
I guess what I would have done is give it all of Orleans but otherwise leave the map unchanged.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Surprising how ugly most of these maps are. I tried making a more compact one. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2e3ecff-2da9-42f2-b9bb-d467c78a4a52

In this map the 2nd district is plurality-black CVAP despite only staying in the New Orleans area- there's no need to expand it outwards any further. And the 6th is Biden+3 so would probably stay R in 2022 but would be competitive in general. 5th is Trump+16 so almost certainly safe but could conceivably fall with a strong candidate in a favourable midterm.

Part of me is immensely displeased by the fact your 2nd splits both Orleans and Jefferson parishes, while another part of me is pleased by the compactness.
I guess what I would have done is give it all of Orleans but otherwise leave the map unchanged.

Louisiana Parishes, especially in the Southeast corner suck

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Louisiana Parishes, especially in the Southeast corner suck

Depends on the parish.
I will say the discontiguity of St. Martin Parish is something of an eyesore though.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate committee votes to advance only 5-1 maps, the the shock of nobody. Courts or compromise will only occur if the expected veto holds.

[soundchaser]

Senate committee votes to advance only 5-1 maps, the the shock of nobody. Courts or compromise will only occur if the expected veto holds.

Which it should, given the state of the House. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens in the courts - this hasn't shaken out like I expected so far, but I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high.