US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming it doesn't end up being a VRA requirement as in the Alabama case, is there anything in Louisiana law that would stop Republicans from simply passing their preferred 5/1 gerrrymander in 2024 after they almost surely flip the governoroship?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

[Skill and Chance]

An independent and a Democrat voted for the 5R/1D map at the committee level in the House of Representatives.  This could be over, barring a successful VRA lawsuit.  Republicans are 2 seats below the veto override threshold.

[GALeftist]

An independent and a Democrat voted for the 5R/1D map at the committee level in the House of Representatives.  This could be over, barring a successful VRA lawsuit.  Republicans are 2 seats below the veto override threshold.

Ugh, gonna be sad if we get Missouri'd. Which Democrat was it?

[Torie]

An independent and a Democrat voted for the 5R/1D map at the committee level in the House of Representatives.  This could be over, barring a successful VRA lawsuit.  Republicans are 2 seats below the veto override threshold.

Ugh, gonna be sad if we get Missouri'd. Which Democrat was it?

Thr Dems have had just so much winning with redistricting cycle, winning just about everything that was not nailed down with a couple of very slight hiccups in MT, AZ, and CO that are worth maybe a half seat each for the Pubs, that Trump must be consumed with envy. But the winning stops in LA. The governor's veto will be be overridden 71-34, and team Elias will lose the claim that that line dance CD chopping into Baton Rouge and Shreveport to pick up the black neighborhoods is a second compact Gingles CD. So it is time to move on from this state. There is nothing more to see here. The apostate "Tory" Dem represents a Pub bastion, the independent that went Pub is also parked in a Pub bastion, and another independent represents a district Trump won by 18 points (district 62), whom I sure knows which way the wind is blowing.

The Dems will get the third independent to vote no, a trial lawyer in district 85 who represents accused criminals, that Biden won by 10 points that is trending Dem. He calls himself fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Whites make up 37% of the voting age population, a percentage that is dropping as they are being switched out with Hispanics, with blacks holding steady at about 35%. He is a pal of the governor.  This assumes that district 85 was not gutted in the proposed map. If it was made substantially more Pub, then maybe he would vote to override. He is highly respected by both parties. But I doubt his district was messed with.

[lfromnj]

Maybe Louisiana democrats could have used their situation to push for a swing seat similar to Arkansas 2nd instead of just nicely asking for the GOP to gerrymander them a free seat.  They could have perhaps offered unanimous support for said seat in exchange for no lawsuit worries and the like.

[Torie]

Maybe Louisiana democrats could have used their situation to push for a swing seat similar to Arkansas 2nd instead of just nicely asking for the GOP to gerrymander them a free seat.  They could have perhaps offered unanimous support for said seat in exchange for no lawsuit worries and the like.

Not sure how any process can preclude someone from suing (God bless America), and SCOTUS clearly wants to create more clarity on Gingles, so the practical aspect that courts give more deference to bipartisan maps, is not in play here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1491191458057302016?s=20&t=b0BZ_8Uo...

A 100% party line vote, though this isn't the chamber that matters - the GOP has the exact number of seats needed to override.

[Skill and Chance]

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

They def cut some sort of deal with this D; maybe shored up their legislative district or something?

Still kinda unfortunate though, small chance maybe Dems can pull someone back into their corner but I'm expecting the ugly snake to stay for at least 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

They def cut some sort of deal with this D; maybe shored up their legislative district or something?

Still kinda unfortunate though, small chance maybe Dems can pull someone back into their corner but I'm expecting the ugly snake to stay for at least 2022.

This could be the last chance LA Dems get for 30+ years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

They def cut some sort of deal with this D; maybe shored up their legislative district or something?

Still kinda unfortunate though, small chance maybe Dems can pull someone back into their corner but I'm expecting the ugly snake to stay for at least 2022.

This could be the last chance LA Dems get for 30+ years.

Ye and the thing that's unfortunate is if a 2nd Black district is created, it'll be harder for the GOP to get away with cracking in 2030, especially if Baton Rouge continues to grow rapidly.

Also interesting is that former Dem (now I) Melinda white voted to advance the maps in committee but appears to have voted against them on the House floor. She represents a deep red district and would largely fall into the group of "conservative rural/former Dem"

[lfromnj]

Again why was this always 2 black districts, or this absurd pack? Why was there no debate about creating a lean to likely R district in the region instead?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again why was this always 2 black districts, or this absurd pack? Why was there no debate about creating a lean to likely R district in the region instead?

Uh have you been living under a rock.

Neither side was ever going to agree on a compromise map, especially in a state like Louisiana where Republicans are extremely conservative, and Democrats are mostly African American

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden majority Louisiana:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b0da11e2-f771-49f7-b145-3ac5c248ee0c

As I always say, Louisiana Geography is quite surprising in how much it favors Ds, especially on the state House level

Could've prolly squeezed another seat or two out of BR if I really wanted to and another from New Orleans

[Skill and Chance]

Biden majority Louisiana:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b0da11e2-f771-49f7-b145-3ac5c248ee0c

As I always say, Louisiana Geography is quite surprising in how much it favors Ds, especially on the state House level

Could've prolly squeezed another seat or two out of BR if I really wanted to and another from New Orleans

That's incredible!  Distributed population centers at the scale that matters.  A surprising number of Southern-influenced states are natural R packs, Texas most clearly.  Virginia is probably heading this way as the VRA district margins narrow and the rural margins increase. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn’t JBE running out of time to veto?

[lfromnj]

Isn’t JBE running out of time to veto?

This is interesting… here’s why Edwards hasn’t vetoed the LA map yet. In short, there are weird procedural quirks of the legislative calendar that would cause a lot of procedural hassle if he vetoes now, that can be averted if he waits until Saturday. If he does it before Saturday, the legislature will have to end its session, call a special session in the middle of the regular session to attempt an override, and then resume its regular session, which will affect nothing but piss off a bunch of legislators. https://www.houmatoday.com/story/lifestyle/2022/03/03/when-gov-john-bel-edwards-veto-louisianas-redistricting-maps/9344576002/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Laws about legislative and election scheduling are kinda fascinating to me. There’s so much explicit prescription and proscription with (in general) such low stakes.

R, MD-7.

Quote from Shamlet on rrh

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

[Sol]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

I used to be a bit sympathetic to a compromise competitve seat based in Baton Rouge, but upon further reflection I agree with this--either put BR in a VRA district, which makes some sense, or do a district rooted in EBR+Livingston+Ascension, which are the obvious metro core of the Baton Rouge area and which naturally fall together if there's no VRA seat.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

If the seat won't be black majority either way, there's no legal requirement, and if there's no legal requirement it is best to respect communities of interest.

[Tintrlvr]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

If the seat won't be black majority either way, there's no legal requirement, and if there's no legal requirement it is best to respect communities of interest.

"Communities of interest" can mean all sorts of things. Surely black people in Baton Rouge have more of a community of interest with black people in Lafayette than with white people in Livingston Parish. Metro areas and county/parish lines are not the be-all, end-all of what makes a community have common interests, although they can and are relevant or even, in the absence of other countervailing considerations, determining.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

If the seat won't be black majority either way, there's no legal requirement, and if there's no legal requirement it is best to respect communities of interest.

"Communities of interest" can mean all sorts of things. Surely black people in Baton Rouge have more of a community of interest with black people in Lafayette than with white people in Livingston Parish. Metro areas and county/parish lines are not the be-all, end-all of what makes a community have common interests, although they can and are relevant or even, in the absence of other countervailing considerations, determining.

Black people in Baton Rouge have more in common with white people in Livingston Parish than black people in Lafayette from a congressional redistricting standpoint.