US House Redistricting: Louisiana (user search)
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  US House Redistricting: Louisiana (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Louisiana  (Read 35328 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: February 27, 2011, 10:03:36 PM »

You're playing with a lot of fire there, in that this map creates a decent possibility of a 6-0 GOP LA delegation (especially if Obama is reelected), since come 2012, we go back to the old system of jungle primary night on election day and runoff afterwards.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2011, 10:57:29 PM »

You're playing with a lot of fire there, in that this map creates a decent possibility of a 6-0 GOP LA delegation (especially if Obama is reelected), since come 2012, we go back to the old system of jungle primary night on election day and runoff afterwards.

So, how does the court handle a jungle primary with the requirement that the minority has the opportunity to elect a candidate of choice? The court has removed the threat of challenges for maps that provide rough proportionality for such opportunities, the lack of an available district that has a majority of the VAP for a single minority, or the lack of different voting behavior between the minority and the white majority. The court has held that a district need not guarantee the specific minority success - note that Cao won in LA-2. If a minority thwarts itself in an open primary by running multiple candidates, isn't that still an opportunity even if missed?

You seem to think that the DoJ will play hardball at every point, which is not that ridiculous of an assumption given who runs things.  So there.

However, one wonders whether they would push hard on weak cases, thus giving the USSC greater leeway to strike them down and deliver bad precedent.  After all, 32% is not 33%, last time I checked.  And last term, USSC indicated that section 5 preclearance is not long for this world.  Moreover, the "big" court has not exactly indicated hard and fast rules for everything (if much of anything), and has not exactly been inclined to strike down districts that made it past lower levels.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2011, 10:08:09 PM »


Instead of hiring a consultant, they should just have talked to muon2.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2011, 08:22:05 PM »

Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.

Really?  Because I'd think the 4th is the Democrat's best pickup opportunity, given that its probably ~40% black.  Both the 5th and 6th cover fairly Conservative white territory.

So, the gamble is going to be - let's create a district where there are so many blacks that only a black Dem will be nominated in a open seat jungle general election, and then said black Dem will get f-ed in the runoff.  Seems to me a little dangerous, but LA GOP must still be afraid of the white Dem and not afraid off the black Dem (which is not that unreasonable).  Of course, as long as there is a GOP incumbent, there won't be any problem until the wave, and maybe the silly jungle primary will be effective there to.  I'd still spread the blacks out, but that's a choice...

This makes the three other GOP CDs really safe though and Boustany will not lose that CD while he's around (so I guess he's planning on being around).
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