US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[Miles]

I did this map for kicks and grins more than anything else.

My goals were:
-Create a super-packed VRA district with >75% minority
-Create 2 horizontal districts in the north
-Have 1 district span almost the entire coastine
-Split as few parishes as possible.



This is a closer look at the VRA district. Its 76% minority with 24% white. Note the deviation of zero; I know these numbers are older, but I thought that was pretty cool.

[Miles]

Boustany already has a Safe R district and even with redistricting , he'd be in pretty good shape anyway.

Oh well, I'll have more time to work on a plan. I have relations on the Legislature's Redistricting Committee. I've been wanting to send in a plan...

[Miles]

Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.

[Miles]

Yeah, I meant the 4th.

[Miles]

The 5th looks like it almost has touch-point contiguity.

[Miles]

The 5th looks like it almost has touch-point contiguity.

The southern tip of Concordia Parish comes just south of 31 degrees north (the boundary between Mississippi and Louisiana) and touches West Feliciana.  There is also a loop at Old River which is part of West Feliciana, but not contiguous to the main part.  No roads in the area, but you can come across at Natchez to get to Baton Rouge.

It still looks pretty awkward though.

The 6th looks like it cuts the 5th into 2 pieces.

[Miles]

They could have forced another VRA seat....

[Miles]

They could have forced another VRA seat....

I don't disagree, but the same census that La. is losing a seat, it would look bad and partisan for Obama and the DOJ to do so.

LA is about 33% black, so minorities should have another seat, IMO.

But yeah, I agree.

[Miles]

No.

[Miles]

I always wondered what the story behind that funky district was.

But surely a cleaner district could be drawn...

[Miles]

Something I did in my boredom as the hurricane passed through:

This would be as close to 3-3 as you could get in Louisiana.




CD1: R+27

Pretty similar to the district that Scalise actually got. He's one of the Republicans that I like the most in Congress (he's done some good work with Landrieu on local issues), so I kept his seat basically intact.

CD2: D+17

This is on 52% Black VAP, which should be enough for preclearance. Again, similar to the actual district.

CD3: R+27

The 3rd becomes one of the three votes sinks where McCain won by almost 3:1. Landry's odd's of winning a primary would slightly improve under this map, as this map keeps Terrebone in the 3rd, but I'd still expect Boustany to retain this seat. Maybe I could draw a district for Chris John in addition to the 3 others Democratic seats in this map. 4-2 would be nice...

CD4: R+7

This is about as D-friendly as I could make the Shreveport district. Its down to 53% McCain, thanks to the hooks into Monroe and Alexandria. Landrieu should have won with 57-58% here and Flemming should have lost the open-seat contest here by about 5 points in 2008. The Democrats would still need to do some work here, as this seat would have probably flipped in 2010; in any case, should be well within reach for a Blue Dog.

CD5: R+28

Alexander gets the third R vote sink. This is something of a "leftovers" seat; its keeps the  most the parishes along the MS border but gets the R parts of Rapides and Ouchita and then finally reaches south to absorb the horrendously red Livingston parish. 'Interesting to think that the district that Huey Long was born in has almost a 70% R average!

This is also the most racially polarized district in the state. The electorate here is 76.6% white VAP, 74.1% McCain; meaning McCain won 97% of the white vote. In terms of the polarization, the other 2 heavily R district weren't far behind; McCain got 96% of whites in CD1 and 92% in CD3.

CD6: R+2

This would be a fairly solid D seat by state standards; it even actually voted for Obama. The only threat would be Cassidy running, but it would even then be a tossup at best. The best candidate here would be State Representative Steven Ortego; he's 28 and I think he could be a fresh face for the LA Dems going forward.
I would have normally drawn this district up to Alexandria to pick up black voters, but I used that instead to bolster the 4th; this necessitated the hand into Lake Charles. This district is 41% black VAP, so Ortego would only need about 17-20% of the white vote to win, which should come pretty easily.

[Miles]

Yes, people are, thankfully, coming back to New Orleans after Katrina.

I doubt it will be enough to get a 7th CD back though; in New Orleans, we're not even back up to our pre-Katrina numbers. Even without the population loss from the storm, Louisiana was still on track to lose CD7, IIRC.

[Miles]

Not that I'm expecting much to come of this but Louisiana is being sued as CD2 is being called a racial gerrymander.

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[Miles]

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

[Miles]

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

CD1 is pretty safe if I recall- around 39% McCain (although I exited out of the App before I was able to save this map).

But what about CD2?

The McCain % in CD1 wouldn't be the problem for Scalise; it would be the potential of a Cajun Republican running.

[Miles]

If I recall, CD2 voted for McCain but had a D average.

With regards to Scalise, I know. This is simply a super-partisan map in that area.

Do you have any more screenshots of it? I'd say Republicans would concede a New Orleans district. Otherwise, something like your CD2 would practically be an invitation for Mitch Landrieu to run for Congress.

[Miles]

Given the swings in southeastern LA, CD2 could very well be a McCain -> Obama district. If not, Romney would definitely be under 50%.

Going for 6-0 would just be too risky for Republicans, IMO.

[Miles]

It isn't risky at all. The two main issues are that Scalise would throw a tantrum, and common decency. CD1 isn't threatened at all, and there's no harm in making CD2 a little friendlier for a Richmond-Cao rematch.

Even if Cao beats Richmond, a white Democrat, like Mitch Landrieu or John Georges, could beat him.

Scalise has too many allies in the legislature to a get district like that in the first place. 

[Miles]

My attempt at a clean 5-1 that the legislators might like:



CD1- About as good as its gets for Scalise. He keeps his homebase of Metairie as well as St/ Tammant/Tangipahoa parishes. The district picks up a few river parishes, which the residents (least least in LaPlace and eastward) there mostly consider themselves part of the NOLA area anyway.

CD2: 57% Obama but swung a few pointss towards him in 2012. This resolves the 'packing' issue in the current lawsuit as for the VAP, its 48% white, 40% black. There actually is some precedent for a district like this as Hale Boggs' seat was Orleans Parish plus some coastal parishes.

CD3: Of all the current Congressmen, King Rep. Boustany would be the one most averse to having his district changed. I changed a total of one precinct here.

CD4/CD5: There was only so much you could do to weaken McAllister, given Riser's poor showing. I moved McAllister's hometown, Swartz, into CD4 as well as some of his best precincts in Ouachita parish. I cut off all the districts northern parishes and swapped them for some in Acadiana, which at least should be better for Riser.

CD6: I just kinda tried to make this a clean, whole-parish district and work around it to accomplish my other goals. 57/42 McCain but probably 55/43-ish Romney. A Baton Rouge Republican should be good to hold it in most cases.

[Miles]

More on the lawsuit. They want a court-drawn map, so it may be out of the legislature's hands (if it goes through):

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[Miles]

Well, there goes that. The lawsuit against CD2 was withdrawn; no reason was cited.