Ukraine

[Angel of Death]

If there was any doubt Putin is pure scum, then his being in favor of the voter fraud in Ukraine should take it all away.

[jaichind]

Fraud it was.  On the other hand, what happend in Afgan elections was no better, as will be the Iraqi elections next year.  Should we put Bush in the same league as Putin ?

[Silent Hunter]

Afghanistan was a mess-up with the ink and the election monitors didn't call the result into question.

This, however, is getting the OSCE more vocal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

101% turnout in the region the President-Elect used to be Governer of...

[English]

Saw a fascinating bit on Newsnight about the Ukraine. Very divided nation it would seem. Pro-Euro, majority Ukrainian West and Pro-Commy, Russian majority East.

At times it's been close to civil war apparently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saw a fascinating bit on Newsnight about the Ukraine. Very divided nation it would seem. Pro-Euro, majority Ukrainian West and Pro-Commy, Russian majority East.

At times it's been close to civil war apparently.

The western bit used to be part of Poland-Lithuania, then Austria-Hungary.

[jaichind]

Well, the only cause for feeling that the results are in doubt is a US backed exit poll that shows Yushchenko with 54% while the official results showed him with 47%.  For one thing I trust the US no more than I trust the Ukrainian authorities.  Both are quite capable of fudging results.  Besides, I know of another recent election where the exit polls got it wrong.  Were there some cheating going on ? For sure, just like Afganistan.  Did such cheating affect the results?  Well in Afganistan most likely not while in Ukraine we cannot be sure.  Either way I view both elections as bogus but if the ruling clique has the political-military power to enforce the "results" of said "election" I would say that the results has to be accepted as a done deal.  The Russians for sure are acting that way with respect to Ukraine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um... the turnout figures in Eastern Ukraine look a little bit suspect to me (98% in one province, 101% in another...)

[jaichind]

Saw a fascinating bit on Newsnight about the Ukraine. Very divided nation it would seem. Pro-Euro, majority Ukrainian West and Pro-Commy, Russian majority East.

At times it's been close to civil war apparently.

This election really mirrored the 1994 election between Kuchma and Kravchuk.  Kuchma won 52-45 and swept the East while losing Kiev and the West.  Margins were massive.  Kuchma lost some Western Oblasts 97-3 and won some Eastern Oblasts 70-30 to 90-10.  Kuchma won 14 of the 27 Oblasts.   Yanukovich won only 10 of the 27 Oblasts but won the East with even greater margin and with massive (most likely artifical) turnout in the East.

[Erc]

As long as Yushchenko [sic?] won Kiev...

He's got the Mob (tm) on his side.


And now, a word of thanks to Yeltsin for forcing the Ukrainians to turn over their nukes when they did.

[minionofmidas]

Just get it over with and annex that accidental country...that is the real trouble with Ukraine and Belorus, you know: A majority (a vast majority in Belorus, small one in Ukraine) of the people would take reunification with Russia without a second thought. It was true of Kazakhstan at the time of Independence as well, but so many Russians and (Russian-speaking) Germans have left in the past 12 years that it's probably not true anymore.
Re: Regional polarization in Ukraine. When Kuchma was reelected (easily), he got 90% in the Western oblasts while the opposition's strongholds were in the East...not that those opposition candidates got any Western financial backing. The second-placed was some sort of hardcore Stalinist.

[jaichind]

Re: Regional polarization in Ukraine. When Kuchma was reelected (easily), he got 90% in the Western oblasts while the opposition's strongholds were in the East...not that those opposition candidates got any Western financial backing. The second-placed was some sort of hardcore Stalinist.

Lets be clear about this.  Kuchma's natural base is in the East where Russians dominate and Communists are strong.  In the first round of the 1999 election the Ukrainian nationalist were split so the Communist candidate came in second to Kuchma.  So the West voted for Kuchma in the second round is much like French Socialists voting for Chirac over Le Pen in the second round of the French Prez elections.  For Kuchma's true political base we should really look at the 1994 Prez elections results where Kuchma was much stronger in the East than West.

[jaichind]

I just this news item.

The Bush administration urged the Ukrainian government on Tuesday not to certify results of the disputed presidential election.

Ironic.  Is is not the same Bush that was in a real rush to certify the 2000 Florida election results ?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just this news item.

The Bush administration urged the Ukrainian government on Tuesday not to certify results of the disputed presidential election.

Ironic.  Is is not the same Bush that was in a real rush to certify the 2000 Florida election results ?

Exit polls are always flawless, except in the US. Didn't you know that?

[Gustaf]

I hope Yuschenko can emerge victorious and this election fraud can be overruled by the people.

Jfern, please stop spamming threads with your ridiculous conspiracy theories.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The current situation reminds me a bit of the Yugoslavian presidential election in 2000, when Milosevic was deposed by his own people after allegations of election fraud.

[jaichind]

The current situation reminds me a bit of the Yugoslavian presidential election in 2000, when Milosevic was deposed by his own people after allegations of election fraud.

But in 2000 Yugoslavia was in economic distress.  Not the case at all for Ukraine in 2004.  I could also assert that this is like Mexico 1988 where clear cheating brought home victory for the PRI.  After a long standoff, the results stood in Mexico in 1988.

[minionofmidas]

I hope Yuschenko can emerge victorious and this election fraud can be overruled by the people.

Jfern, please stop spamming threads with your ridiculous conspiracy theories.

Nothing ridiculous about his statement, actually. Although it wasn't exactly necessary. The point is, the Western-sponsored opposition's argument, in this election as in quite a few others of recent years (Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe,...), rests to a too-large-for-comfort extent upon exit polls they effectively did themselves. Who do you trust - your son of a bitch or the government sons-of-bitches? I don't trust either. Every American knows how little exit polls are worth in close elections. So does every Brit. Here in Germany too, some 2002 exit polls showed a razor thin victory for Stoiber.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But in 2000 Yugoslavia was in economic distress.  Not the case at all for Ukraine in 2004.  I could also assert that this is like Mexico 1988 where clear cheating brought home victory for the PRI.  After a long standoff, the results stood in Mexico in 1988.

Well, Ukraine isn´t exactly one of the leading industrialized countries either. ;-)

Perhaps I came to this conclusion because both are former communist countries in Eastern Europe facing a election fraud.

[jaichind]

I hope Yuschenko can emerge victorious and this election fraud can be overruled by the people.

Jfern, please stop spamming threads with your ridiculous conspiracy theories.

Nothing ridiculous about his statement, actually. Although it wasn't exactly necessary. The point is, the Western-sponsored opposition's argument, in this election as in quite a few others of recent years (Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe,...), rests to a too-large-for-comfort extent upon exit polls they effectively did themselves. Who do you trust - your son of a bitch or the government sons-of-bitches? I don't trust either. Every American knows how little exit polls are worth in close elections. So does every Brit. Here in Germany too, some 2002 exit polls showed a razor thin victory for Stoiber.

My point exactly.  Just because we know that the Ukrainian government cheated does not automatically mean that the opposition candidate MUST have won in a fair count of the vote.   That Yushchenko declares himself president and took an "oath of office" is highly irresponsible and US and EU should condem this act just as much as they should condem the various election fraud that took place.  As far as I am concerned I have no clue who really won this election and I am afraid we will never know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC Map:

[Middle-aged Europe]

BBC Map:

Now, this one actually reminds me a bit of the 2004 U.S. presidential election maps I´ve seen. ;-)

[Huckleberry Finn]

It seems that both USA and EU have taken tough line towards this fraud. This is probably first time that EU has taken tough line towards anything.

I fear that Ukraine is heading to the civil war. The West MUST send a clear message to Kiev and Moscow and threaten economic sanctions. But it should be done secretly not in the public, because otherwise they will never retreat. They don't want lose their credibility.

Personally I'm worried about my Eastern European investment funds. In fact it makes me rethink the sanction issue very seriously...

[ATFFL]

Lets just do this again, only this time we get 2 guys who don't have the same name.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Governers from both sides are reported to be thinking of secession