And what happens if the next PPP poll gives Huck less then a 10 point lead or doesn't have him in the lead at all. Romney then leads by several points.
That's a big what if.
Its a side show related only to the current RCP tie nationally. Hucks position in the RCP average is largely dependent on local homeboys Politically Populist Polling.
My point is and has been that neither of these two flawed chaps can claim an advantage, contrary to your earlier point.
The polls do not show any frontrunner, Romney and Huckabee seem to be likely to split the early primaries (Huck in IA+NC, Romney in SC+NV). But the Cook rating and the Intrade betting has Romney as frontrunner because he has more mainstream appeal and more importantly Romney has shown a much greater ability at fund-raising (and lending his own campaign tens of millions). And even if both can equally share the current title of front runner, my point stands that it is Palin who can tip the balance in favor of Huckabee by freeing up her supporters and by helping Huck with fund-raising.
Palin is faced with three options:
1. Run and probably lose nomination (certainly general)
2. Not run and stay out of primary (where nominee could end up with a more moderate like Romney, Daniels, Huntsman, etc)
3. Not run and play kingmaker with Huckabee
It seems to me that the third option is more in line with her track record. The first option means a lot of work (and loss of income) with little chance of success and possible humiliation. Option 2 means that she would become less of a player in the process (and people would pay less attention to her...which she cant want). The entire primary process will elevate all the candidates to leading voices in the party, will she really stay out of it and cede that? By anointing and campaigning for Huckabee in the primaries she remains a player and potentially gets her the ear of the next POTUS.
Romney in SC? NC as an early state? No NH? I think your assesment of the early states has issues.
Poll
