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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Kentucky  (Read 23840 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #75 on: October 27, 2012, 09:30:09 pm »
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Let's suppose Republicans win complete control of the Kentucky legislature (and there's a good chance of this actually happening), in time for a do-over of redistricting of the legislature in accordance with the wishes of the state Supreme Court.

What would the maps look like for both houses?  

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Torie
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« Reply #76 on: April 16, 2013, 11:59:03 am »
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I got the mapping bug again this morning. My bad! Sorry.

KY won't be dropping down to five CD's in 2020 it seems, but if it did, I drew a couple of maps, with what I think are the two basic options - if done in a non partisan way.  I wonder which way the map makers would go. Combine Lexington with the Cincinnati burbs to reduce erosity, or keep Lexington in its own CD? Keeping Franklin County (Frankfort) with Lexington does not seem to be in the cards either way, in anything that would look non partisan (unless one were trying to draw swing CD's at the cost of erosity). Sorry Dems!

The Louisville CD has a GOP PVI based on 2008 numbers of about 0.7% - a true swing CD.  Granted by 2022 (actually more like 2032), it might not be. That is a loooong time away. Smiley

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #77 on: April 16, 2013, 05:16:03 pm »
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I got the mapping bug again this morning. My bad! Sorry.

KY won't be dropping down to five CD's in 2020 it seems, but if it did, I drew a couple of maps, with what I think are the two basic options - if done in a non partisan way.  I wonder which way the map makers would go. Combine Lexington with the Cincinnati burbs to reduce erosity, or keep Lexington in its own CD? Keeping Franklin County (Frankfurt) with Lexington does not seem to be in the cards either way, in anything that would look non partisan (unless one were trying to draw swing CD's at the cost of erosity). Sorry Dems!

The Louisville CD has a GOP PVI based on 2008 numbers of about 0.7% - a true swing CD.  Granted by 2022 (actually more like 2032), it might not be. That is a loooong time away. Smiley

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An R+1 seat in Kentucky means pretty safe dem.
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« Reply #78 on: April 16, 2013, 08:32:19 pm »
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Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #79 on: April 16, 2013, 08:38:48 pm »
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Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.

Northup was kind of a fluke.  She won in 1996 and was lucky to not have a really bad GOP year until she finally lost in 2006.
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muon2
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« Reply #80 on: April 17, 2013, 09:12:01 am »

Even with 6 CDs in 2020 there should be some shifts due to population loss or minimal change in much of the state. The growth is in the metro areas of the north and a pocket at Bowling Green. That should pull the large rural districts more to the north.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #81 on: April 17, 2013, 10:24:04 am »
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The GOP areas are essentially dying, with the exception of Boone County. The growth is in Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green.
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« Reply #82 on: April 17, 2013, 12:02:56 pm »
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Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.

Northup was kind of a fluke.  She won in 1996 and was lucky to not have a really bad GOP year until she finally lost in 2006.
Northup also had a personal machine in the Black parts of Louisville.
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« Reply #83 on: April 21, 2013, 07:19:42 pm »
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Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.

Northup was kind of a fluke.  She won in 1996 and was lucky to not have a really bad GOP year until she finally lost in 2006.
Northup also had a personal machine in the Black parts of Louisville.

She certainly did.  This is what almost certainly made the difference in her narrow 2002 victory against Jack Conway. 
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #84 on: April 23, 2013, 03:44:36 pm »
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Here is KY with whole counties
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muon2
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« Reply #85 on: April 24, 2013, 06:06:27 pm »

Here is KY with whole counties


That seems kind of yucky. Why the strips splitting the Cinci suburbs?
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« Reply #86 on: June 09, 2013, 12:38:33 am »
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This is from a couple of weeks ago, but thanks to a lawsuit filed by Northern Kentucky residents, legislators (even House Republicans) are finally moving to finish up redistricting:

Lawsuit Gets Lawmakers Moving on Redistricting

05/24/13 at 1:04pm by Scott Wartman

As state leaders begin to respond to the federal lawsuit filed by 12 Northern Kentucky residents over redistricting, lawmakers remain optimistic they can reach a solution before November.

Federal Judge William Bertelsman has sent to the chief district judge the request for three-judge panel that could draw the political boundaries if lawmakers cannot.

All states must do redistricting every 10 years so political boundaries match population shifts reflected in the U.S. Census, and Kentucky is one of only two states–the other being Maine–that doesn’t have an approved map for its state legislative districts.

Calls for the General Assembly to complete redistricting have increased since April 26 when Northern Kentucky residents filed suit against most of state leadership to finish redistricting.

They want redistricting done before November so potential candidates for the 2014 election can meet the one-year residency requirements to live in a district. The American Civil Liberties Union filed a similar suit a few weeks later.

At stake for Northern Kentucky is additional representation in the General Assembly for Boone County, which gained population in the past 10 years by 38 percent.



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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #87 on: June 09, 2013, 09:54:30 am »
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There's 2 lawsuits - one by the Tea Party and the other by the ACLU. The ACLU seeks to have a panel of judges do the redistricting, but the Tea Party seeks to have the Tea Party do the redistricting. Because it's the Tea Party's birthright, don't ya know.
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« Reply #88 on: June 09, 2013, 05:14:44 pm »
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There's 2 lawsuits - one by the Tea Party and the other by the ACLU. The ACLU seeks to have a panel of judges do the redistricting, but the Tea Party seeks to have the Tea Party do the redistricting. Because it's the Tea Party's birthright, don't ya know.
The two lawsuits are going to get combined, unless the ACLU suit is dismissed entirely.

You clearly have not read the original lawsuit. 

And if you think a federal court is going to unilaterally draw legislative districts, you are in LaLaLand.

Quote from: Greg Stumbo Speaker of the House of Representatives
There is nothing in the pending complaints that supports the federal court seizing control of the process and depriving the citizens of their right to act through the lawfully elected representatives.  This Court must recognize the right of the state to act through its elected representatives.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #89 on: June 09, 2013, 05:20:13 pm »
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And if you think a federal court is going to unilaterally draw legislative districts, you are in LaLaLand.

The panel of judges has already been selected.
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« Reply #90 on: June 09, 2013, 08:15:30 pm »
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And if you think a federal court is going to unilaterally draw legislative districts, you are in LaLaLand.

The panel of judges has already been selected.
The panel of judges is the same as has been selected to hear the real case, the one which have apparently not read the filings for.

There is a scheduling conference for both cases on the 20th in the same courtroom in Lexington at 1 pm, with the same judges.  The cases will be merged, or the ACLU case will be dismissed.

Repeat: If you think a federal court is going to unilaterally draw legislative districts, you are in LaLaLand
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #91 on: June 09, 2013, 08:18:24 pm »
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There is a scheduling conference for both cases on the 20th in the same courtroom in Lexington at 1 pm, with the same judges.  The cases will be merged, or the ACLU case will be dismissed.

Then why wouldn't the Tea Party case be dismissed?
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« Reply #92 on: June 09, 2013, 09:10:33 pm »
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There is a scheduling conference for both cases on the 20th in the same courtroom in Lexington at 1 pm, with the same judges.  The cases will be merged, or the ACLU case will be dismissed.

Then why wouldn't the Tea Party case be dismissed?

The lead plaintiff in the original case is the county clerk of Boone County.  They sued Beshear and the legislature to act.  It is only if they fail to pass a redistricting bill. that they asked that the court draw a map.  It is quite normal for a court to ask for input from the prevailing party if they are forced to craft a solution.

The case is pretty simple:

The Commonwealth is abridging the right to vote.  They gave Kentucky an opportunity to run one last election on unconstitutional boundaries, and they still haven't fixed the problem.  Kentucky is being put under a deadline to act.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #93 on: June 09, 2013, 09:12:32 pm »
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It still doesn't explain why the Tea Party's suit is more important than that of the ACLU.
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« Reply #94 on: June 09, 2013, 10:32:32 pm »

It still doesn't explain why the Tea Party's suit is more important than that of the ACLU.

A suit challenging the failure of the state to comply with their constitutional duty should not be dismissed. Consolidation of the suits is reasonable, and the county clerk's suit (Tea Party as you describe it) is directly to the need of the state to act. If the court doesn't consolidate then the focus should go to the suit that is most directly on point, and that's the one from the county clerk.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #95 on: June 09, 2013, 10:33:51 pm »
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The county clerk is suing on behalf of the Tea Party.

The Tea Party tries to sue its way into office.
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« Reply #96 on: June 10, 2013, 02:11:03 am »
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The county clerk is suing on behalf of the Tea Party.

The Tea Party tries to sue its way into office.

The governor now says he expects the issue will be resolved in a special session.   Before he had planned to wait until next January.

The ACLU filed two weeks after the suit in Covington, and left out the governor and the legislature.  The ACLU filed in a remote city that ordinary decent citizens rarely travel to.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #97 on: June 10, 2013, 10:29:30 am »
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The governor now says he expects the issue will be resolved in a special session.

The only people obstructing that are the Republicans who control the Kentucky Senate.

The Democratic-led Kentucky House has already approved a map. The GOP needs to get on board or get out of the way.
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« Reply #98 on: August 12, 2013, 10:57:49 pm »
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From a few days ago:

Kentucky House Republicans offer redistricting plan ahead of special session

Written by Joseph Gerth
The Courier-Journal
Aug. 8, 2013


FRANKFORT, KY. — The state House Republican Caucus on Thursday introduced its own redistricting plan in an effort to head off a Democratic proposal they say could be punitive to the GOP.

The GOP House plan “is constitutional, is legal, and is fairer for all involved than any that we have seen recently,” said Minority Floor Leader Jeff Hoover, R-Jamestown.

Additionally, he said the plan would save the state $1.5 million because it doesn’t split as many precincts as past Democratic plans, which he said is expensive for county clerks, who administer elections.
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« Reply #99 on: August 18, 2013, 12:08:49 am »
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Here is the Republican proposed Senate map:




Apparently, there are no pairings in the map.

http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wfpl/files/201308/Senate_map.jpg
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