US House Redistricting: Kentucky

[BigSkyBob]

The proposed Republican map can be found here:

http://media.kentucky.com/smedia/2013/08/08/17/14/iXt3C.So.79.pdf#storylink=relast

[BigSkyBob]

The proposed Democratic House map:

[Miles]

The Democratic House plan has eight pairings that affect both parties equally.

The House Republican leader seems to be warming up to it:

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[Bandit3 the Worker]

The House Republican leader seems to be warming up to it:

That's because it is essentially a Republican plan.

Another day, another cave-in by the Kentucky Democratic Party.

[BigSkyBob]

The House Republican leader seems to be warming up to it:

That's because it is essentially a Republican plan.

Another day, another cave-in by the Kentucky Democratic Party.

What real alternative did they have other than to lose in court?  When the courts decided not to defer to the legislature concerning the numbering of seats the GOP in the Senate lost much of the potential upside in passing an aggressive map. As a result, they have little incentive to enter into a deal with the House to rubber-stamp each others maps. Either the Democrats in the House were going to have to draw a map reasonably fair to its Republican members, or, they would have had to prepare to go to court. They could have gone to court to defend the notion that an impartial judge ought to pair a lot of Republicans and no Democrats while needlessly splitting counties in the process, but, apparently, they have decided to draw a map that conforms to allegedly "neutral" redistricting principles that is more favorable to themselves than other maps that also conform to those principles. By all means, consider that betrayal.

The Kentucky House is the last chamber in the South not to fall to the Republicans. The new map may very well be more favorable to them than the previous map. It now seems somewhat inevitable that the Kentucky House will join all their Southern peers.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It now seems somewhat inevitable that the Kentucky House will join all their Southern peers.

Only through dishonest elections. The type of thing the GOP is known for.

[Frodo]

The Kentucky House has passed the modified redistricting bill, and it is now on its way to the Senate for a vote on Friday.

How badly will Republicans be affected in the House?  It is currently split 55D:45R.   

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How badly will Republicans be affected in the House?

Not that badly, but they're complaining about it anyway.

The map helps Joe Fischer by expanding his district to the southern edge of the county. He has to go.

[Frodo]

With Governor Steve Beshear's signature, the redistricting plan is now law.  

[Torie]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below? It uses the 2010 census numbers, but the necessary adjustments would not be too major, so this concept would likely still be in play.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below?

There'd be some constitutional issues that are pretty specific to Kentucky and rulings by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

[Torie]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below?

There'd be some constitutional issues that are pretty specific to Kentucky and rulings by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

What might those be?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below?

There'd be some constitutional issues that are pretty specific to Kentucky and rulings by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

What might those be?

During the last redistricting, they said there were some guidelines that had to be followed. One of them was racial disparity. Blacks in Kentucky are more concentrated in Louisville, with very few in rural counties.

[Torie]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below?

There'd be some constitutional issues that are pretty specific to Kentucky and rulings by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

What might those be?

During the last redistricting, they said there were some guidelines that had to be followed. One of them was racial disparity. Blacks in Kentucky are more concentrated in Louisville, with very few in rural counties.

I would be most appreciative of a link discussing the above (I have trouble envisioning just what law the Court was referencing), but in any case, I was careful to keep the black community in Jeffco mostly in one district. In fact, I did the split in Jeffco first to accomplish that, and went from there.

[Sol]

Torie, how does your Blue district vote?

[Torie]

Torie, how does your Blue district vote?

The map above has a Pub PVI circa 2008 of about 5% Pub. The map below, which more faithfully does one's best to keep the black community together in Jeffco, without being unduly erose, has a Pub PVI of about 3.5%, with in this zero sum game, the magenta CD moving up the same amount to about 9.5% Pub PVI.  The next most "Dem" is the red CD which clocks in at about 12.5% Pub.



And here's a psephological oddity. Is there some "edgy" art school there or something? Ah, and here's the answer. Does anybody here know more about the place? TJ?