US House Redistricting: Kentucky

[Torie]

I suppose here we have two issues. The first is whether the Pubbies think they will take it all in the 2011 election, and thus will stall and wait for the promise land. The second issue is assuming that they don't see that in the cards (taking everything), just how would a court draw the lines, which then becomes the "default" plan?  It would be against that backdrop, that the two parties would then bargain. And in that regard, it matters whether it ends up in federal or state court (and other than VRA challenges, I am confused in my mind, as a matter of legal procedure, just how and why these redistricting cases end up in federal court as opposed to state court, or visa versa. Does anyone know? Muon2 or Sam Spade)?

Federal versus state court matters, because if there is no map, the federal judges follow I think the least change rule, and try to make as few changes from the existing map for the prior decennial, as possible. State court judges however, for some reason follow no such rule, and just do their own thing. So whether a Kentucky map is drawn by a federal or state judge may matter, potentially a lot, although probably not in Kentucky's case. The existing map is pretty logical.

[Torie]

Yeah, unless it's a complaint based on federal law (like the VRA), redistricting cases would be filed in state court. Incidentally, are there any other significant federal laws regarding redistricting other than the VRA? I can't think of any offhand.

I think for some reason, a Texas case ended up in federal court in the 2001 cycle, not involving a VRA issue, but rather no map, but I could be wrong. Sam Spade would know.

[Torie]

Yeah, unless it's a complaint based on federal law (like the VRA), redistricting cases would be filed in state court. Incidentally, are there any other significant federal laws regarding redistricting other than the VRA? I can't think of any offhand.

I think for some reason, a Texas case ended up in federal court in the 2001 cycle, not involving a VRA issue, but rather no map, but I could be wrong. Sam Spade would know.

Plaintiff was registered to vote in Texas but was domiciled elsewhere (e.g., a college student from out of state)?

Ah, diversity jurisdiction!  So, then perhaps it is a game of race to the courthouse, with if you want a state court, you find a domestic domicile, and if you want federal court, you find a foreign state domicile, to sue. Just how you can be registered in one state, and domiciled in another for diversity jurisdiction purposes, is an interesting question, now isn't it? 

I wonder if this is how it all works. Darn, I am just so ignorant sometimes, and find over time  that the universe of my ignorance just keeps expanding, just like the universe itself. Fancy that.

[Torie]

Well, if I were the judge drawing the plan, because for whatever reason, the parties cannot cut a deal (perhaps because one party or the other thinks they will control the process after the 2011 election, and it turns out not, and then they still can't get their act together), this is the map I would draw. CD-03 expands to take in the rest of Jefferson County (except for the far western corner (surprising that CD-03 did not expand outside of Jeffco this time, but it didn't, and in this case intra county splits when the census numbers come in, will for obvious reasons, not make a wit of difference), and then fill in the county splits, and then switch counties to the extent necessary between CD's, while making the lines look less erose, or not more so at least, and then do whatever county splits are necessary, to make the lines look less erose still. I did do one small county switch out, to round out KY-02. You can see by the shade variations, where I made line changes.

In short, next to nothing happens.

[Torie]

Thanks Jimrtex for that most extensive tour de horizon of the legal scuffles. The do it different in Texas don't they - on just about everything it seems.

[Torie]

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Once upon a time, the coal mountain counties (Dem) dominated those mountain counties without (GOP). Those days are just so yesterday.

[Torie]

Nice Dem Gerry there. 

[Torie]

Since almost nothing really needs to be changed, it would be interesting to ask the Dems why they got a bit more ambitious, since it won't happen unless the GOP agrees.

[Torie]

Muon2, you chopped KY-06 to pieces, but your switch out of Dem Franklin County for that grab bag of Dem counties in the east left the partisan balance about the same - 54% McCain of the two party vote as compared to the 55% it is now. I would assume however, that they will just end up with the existing map, which requires only very minor changes. Why would they do otherwise?

[Torie]

It would appear that the Dems should be pleased that KY has 6 CD's, rather than 5. At 5, the geography vis a vis the population centers and regions (blue grass, mountains, burbs and two cities), seem to tend to screw them.  

[Torie]

Your map is more erose and uglier than mine, Vazdul. A clear gerrymander!   I tried to just go with the flow, and see where it ended up. It is interesting that a state losing one seat, causes, if things go "naturally," one party losing two seats. Who knew?

[Torie]

I got the mapping bug again this morning. My bad! Sorry.

KY won't be dropping down to five CD's in 2020 it seems, but if it did, I drew a couple of maps, with what I think are the two basic options - if done in a non partisan way.  I wonder which way the map makers would go. Combine Lexington with the Cincinnati burbs to reduce erosity, or keep Lexington in its own CD? Keeping Franklin County (Frankfort) with Lexington does not seem to be in the cards either way, in anything that would look non partisan (unless one were trying to draw swing CD's at the cost of erosity). Sorry Dems!

The Louisville CD has a GOP PVI based on 2008 numbers of about 0.7% - a true swing CD.  Granted by 2022 (actually more like 2032), it might not be. That is a loooong time away.

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[Torie]

Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.

[Torie]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below? It uses the 2010 census numbers, but the necessary adjustments would not be too major, so this concept would likely still be in play.

[Torie]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below?

There'd be some constitutional issues that are pretty specific to Kentucky and rulings by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

What might those be?

[Torie]

Given that the Pubs are quite likely to control the trifecta in KY in for the 2022 map, might they be tempted to go for a map like the one below?

There'd be some constitutional issues that are pretty specific to Kentucky and rulings by the Kentucky Supreme Court.

What might those be?

During the last redistricting, they said there were some guidelines that had to be followed. One of them was racial disparity. Blacks in Kentucky are more concentrated in Louisville, with very few in rural counties.

I would be most appreciative of a link discussing the above (I have trouble envisioning just what law the Court was referencing), but in any case, I was careful to keep the black community in Jeffco mostly in one district. In fact, I did the split in Jeffco first to accomplish that, and went from there.

[Torie]

Torie, how does your Blue district vote?

The map above has a Pub PVI circa 2008 of about 5% Pub. The map below, which more faithfully does one's best to keep the black community together in Jeffco, without being unduly erose, has a Pub PVI of about 3.5%, with in this zero sum game, the magenta CD moving up the same amount to about 9.5% Pub PVI.  The next most "Dem" is the red CD which clocks in at about 12.5% Pub.



And here's a psephological oddity. Is there some "edgy" art school there or something? Ah, and here's the answer. Does anybody here know more about the place? TJ?