US House Redistricting: Kentucky

[Mr.Phips]

I got the mapping bug again this morning. My bad! Sorry.

KY won't be dropping down to five CD's in 2020 it seems, but if it did, I drew a couple of maps, with what I think are the two basic options - if done in a non partisan way.  I wonder which way the map makers would go. Combine Lexington with the Cincinnati burbs to reduce erosity, or keep Lexington in its own CD? Keeping Franklin County (Frankfurt) with Lexington does not seem to be in the cards either way, in anything that would look non partisan (unless one were trying to draw swing CD's at the cost of erosity). Sorry Dems!

The Louisville CD has a GOP PVI based on 2008 numbers of about 0.7% - a true swing CD.  Granted by 2022 (actually more like 2032), it might not be. That is a loooong time away.

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An R+1 seat in Kentucky means pretty safe dem.

[Mr.Phips]

Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.

Northup was kind of a fluke.  She won in 1996 and was lucky to not have a really bad GOP year until she finally lost in 2006.

[Mr.Phips]

Perhaps, although Northrup held on for a long time. Be that as it may, out of curiosity, because it was so easy to calculate, based on the 2012 numbers, the PVI was - you guessed it - 0.0% on the button. Well it was 0.1% Pub, but given that one must excise about 5 or so hyper Pub precincts from either Oldham or Bullitt counties, I figure it's at absolute zero. So it does seem that in 10 or 20 years, it would indeed take a talented Pub to win it.

Northup was kind of a fluke.  She won in 1996 and was lucky to not have a really bad GOP year until she finally lost in 2006.

Northup also had a personal machine in the Black parts of Louisville.

She certainly did.  This is what almost certainly made the difference in her narrow 2002 victory against Jack Conway.