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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  US House Redistricting: Kentucky (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Kentucky  (Read 25446 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: April 23, 2011, 12:08:11 pm »

BUMP

Here's what I came up with yesterday.

Given the split redistricting control, I made very minor changes.

Basically, KY-02 trades out parts of 2 Paul counties (Scott and Lincoln) for 2 Conway counties (Bath and Montgomery).

Img

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2011, 09:27:32 pm »

I don't think Chandler would have to worry much about a challenge from the left. From what I can tell, most KY Democrats are still more conservative than the national party.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2011, 09:40:37 pm »
« Edited: April 24, 2011, 09:45:56 pm by MilesC56 »

This is probably the safest Democratic district that could be drawn (outside of Louisville).

Actually, neither Hal Rogers nor Geoff Davis would live in that district. If the Legislature draws an incumbent-protection plan, we could see a district that looks like this for Chandler.

Img

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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2011, 10:38:54 pm »

I was just putting that out there. I'm expecting a pretty status quo map.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2011, 05:23:32 pm »

Its sounds like the Legislature may actually pass an incumbent-protection map.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2011, 09:58:41 pm »

...I don't get it.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2011, 10:27:02 pm »

...I don't get it.

At a quick glance, it makes Chandler ever-so-slightly safer. It also makes the Whitfield and Rogers districts somewhat easier to target in the event of retirement and/or death.

I guess I was expecting them to give Chandler more coal/eastern counties
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2011, 12:26:21 am »

I could maybe see Grimes winning Torie's green district. Kinda depends; she'd have to hold strong in Lexington and not get blown out elsewhere.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2012, 04:22:20 pm »

Here we have it. This is going to Beshear's desk.

Img


Chandler would have won by between 6000 and 7000 votes in 2010.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2012, 04:23:48 pm »

Some partisan numbers.

Overall, KY-06 shifts about 1.5% more Democratic.

Old:
McCain- 56.2%
McConnell- 49.3%

New:
McCain- 54.7%
McConnell- 48.3%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2013, 12:54:32 am »

The Democratic House plan has eight pairings that affect both parties equally.

The House Republican leader seems to be warming up to it:

Quote
"I'm pleased that Speaker Stumbo is, at least on its face, moving toward a fairer plan for redistricting," House GOP Floor Leader Jeff Hoover said in a statement Friday.

"While we haven't reviewed the details of his plan, which will we do before the start of the special session on Monday, at least on its face we believe this proposal is moving toward a better approach on redistricting."
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