US House Redistricting: Kentucky

[Miles]

BUMP

Here's what I came up with yesterday.

Given the split redistricting control, I made very minor changes.

Basically, KY-02 trades out parts of 2 Paul counties (Scott and Lincoln) for 2 Conway counties (Bath and Montgomery).

[Miles]

I don't think Chandler would have to worry much about a challenge from the left. From what I can tell, most KY Democrats are still more conservative than the national party.

[Miles]

This is probably the safest Democratic district that could be drawn (outside of Louisville).

Actually, neither Hal Rogers nor Geoff Davis would live in that district. If the Legislature draws an incumbent-protection plan, we could see a district that looks like this for Chandler.

[Miles]

I was just putting that out there. I'm expecting a pretty status quo map.

[Miles]

Its sounds like the Legislature may actually pass an incumbent-protection map.

[Miles]

...I don't get it.

[Miles]

...I don't get it.

At a quick glance, it makes Chandler ever-so-slightly safer. It also makes the Whitfield and Rogers districts somewhat easier to target in the event of retirement and/or death.

I guess I was expecting them to give Chandler more coal/eastern counties

[Miles]

I could maybe see Grimes winning Torie's green district. Kinda depends; she'd have to hold strong in Lexington and not get blown out elsewhere.

[Miles]

Here we have it. This is going to Beshear's desk.



Chandler would have won by between 6000 and 7000 votes in 2010.

[Miles]

Some partisan numbers.

Overall, KY-06 shifts about 1.5% more Democratic.

Old:
McCain- 56.2%
McConnell- 49.3%

New:
McCain- 54.7%
McConnell- 48.3%

[Miles]

The Democratic House plan has eight pairings that affect both parties equally.

The House Republican leader seems to be warming up to it:

You must be logged in to read this quote.