US House Redistricting: South Carolina

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wilson will not like splitting up Lexington County.  He'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he loses half of his base county.  People here think the GOP will be able to get away with providing for only a single minority-majority district, and they really have nothing to lose by trying.  If they get overruled and have a court-drawn plan with two minority-majority districts, it certainly will be a 5 GOP 2 Dem delegation no matter how it is drawn.

The conventional wisdom on this board has been that South Carolina would have to draw two majority-minority districts that would elect Democrats, but there was an article in The State today that indicates that both Clyburn and the GOP are thinking that the General Assembly will be able to draw only one such district and carve things up so that the other six would elect Republicans.

(link)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

For those who want to follow the official process here are the websites for the two subcommittees that will be handling redistricting:

http://redistricting.schouse.gov

http://redistricting.scsenate.gov

Incidentally, the Senate subcommittee does tell you how to go about making a submission if you want to.  Warning, a file from Dave's Redistricting App will not be sufficient.  You'll need access to GIS software, as they expect an ASCII file that lists for each of the 181,908 census blocks which district it is assigned to.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's the map Matt was talking about:




Not the most horrible gerrymander I've ever seen, but one that might leave SC with a 7-0 GOP delegation in an election such as we had in 2010.  Could well stay 6-1 if this map or a similar one were to put Tim Scott into the 7th district.  Far too clever for its own good.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It'll be up for a challenge I'm sure.  While it takes a horrible gerrymander to do it, it is possible to draw two minority majority districts.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here is a horrible gerrymander I've worked on, that does provide for two majority-minority districts.  While it can likely be improved on, it does show that it is doable.

CD	Pop	Dev	%W All	%B All	%W 18+	%B 18+	%Rep	%Dem
1	661,272	+506	75.5	14.8	78.3	14.6	65.4	34.6
2	661,383	+617	75.9	16.8	78.1	15.9	66.3	33.7
3	660,894	+128	75.5	15.8	78.0	14.8	66.0	34.0
4	661,498	+732	76.6	14.1	78.8	13.6	68.7	31.3
5	660,016	-750	69.2	23.2	71.8	21.9	62.7	37.3
6	660,204	-562	39.9	52.8	42.7	50.9	38.1	61.9
7	660,097	-669	35.8	56.2	38.8	54.1	33.2	66.8

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Clyburn realizes that he's safer with just 1 Maj-Min district. Also, given the heavy gerrymandering required to get 2 Maj-Min districts, getting it will be problematic, nd likely to do more long-term harm for a little short term harm.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The ACLU has set down a marker announcing they intend to sue.
(link - The State)

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In other news, the two redistricting committees met jointly yesterday and approved the plans each had already made.  They should get approved later this month when the General Assembly comes back for a few days to override the Governor's line item vetoes of parts of the budget.

(One year Sanford was so piqued at the GA for always overriding his budget vetoes, he only did one line item veto, but it was of the entire budget. )

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What is needed is ugly, but not anywhere near that ugly.

I admit I was going for maximum minority stuffing.

wouldn't it actually make far more sense, CoI wise, to draw one wholly rural/smalltown Black seat and one urban Black seat that's in two noncontiguous parts, half in Columbia and half in Charleston?

Not really. The divide between the low country and the rest of the state is far more significant than urban/rural as far as CoI.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not really. The divide between the low country and the rest of the state is far more significant than urban/rural as far as CoI.

Is that why you drew the areas by the Savannah River into the Columbia seat? It makes the map very ugly. Where exactly would you say the Low Country ends?

At its core, the Low Country is the seven counties of Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, Hampton, and Jasper.  More broadly I'd include the whole coastal plain between the Savannah and Santee Rivers, which adds Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Orangeburg and most of Calhoun.

The Pee Dee region shares some similarity with the Low Country.

However my choice of where to split the 6th and 7th CDs was because of a desire to avoid splitting counties if possible.  If one were willing to accept a split of Orangeburg county, then swapping Allendale, Barnwell, and Bamberg for eastern Orangeburg makes more sense from a CoI and media market POV.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As much as I admire what you've done to Joe Wilson, neither plan would never pass the General assembly because of that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Congressional redistricting debate splinters Senate

(link - The State)

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As mentioned later in the article, the GOP will do its best to find a plan to agree to so as to avoid having a three-judge Federal panel draw the lines and possibly giving the Democrats the chance to elect a second Representative.

The Senate will resume debate on redistricting on Monday.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder if part of the public fight stems from a private recognition that any 6-1 plan will be vulnerable to a challenge. Black statewide VAP is 26.3%, which is equivalent to 1.84 congressional districts. The standard is "rough proportionality", but there's no clear guidance as to whether 1 district is roughly proportional to 1.84. Perhaps the lawyers internally are suggesting that it would be unlikely to be viewed that way.

It would be bad politically to have the SC GOP appear to give away their new seat to the Dems. If there is no agreement and federal judges give that seat away, then perhaps the political blame is on the judges, not the SC Senate.

Doubtful.  Clyburn had already given the SC GOP the political cover they needed to pass a 6-1 plan which would as a side effect ensure he has a super-safe district to run in for the next decade.  To the degree that politics rather than regional pride is involved, it is more likely due to internal GOP differences than VRA worries.  The upstate is a bastion of social conservatives while the midlands and coast is more fiscal conservative/libertarian in nature. If the new 7th district contains Horry County then it will be significantly less socially conservative than it would be if it did not.  In other words, without Horry the 7th would be likely to elect someone like DeMint and with Horry it would be likely to elect someone like Graham.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Senate passes surprise plan
Beaufort would anchor new congressional district

The State

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[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's so hard to imagine these goings on in SC. It is inconceivable to think that a split among Dems in IL would result in a rogue group banding with the GOP to pass an alternate plan.

Then again, maybe I should be prepared to submit my credentials to the federal court in SC.

I can believe it.  A couple decades we had a similar squabble over reapportioning the General Assembly. The then minority Republicans and Black Democrats worked together to pass a plans that created more GOP districts and more Black majority districts. It worked, but with a couple of white Democrats who switched parties, the Republicans took control of the Assembly and have never relinquished it since. Ooops!

I don't think any three-judge panel plan is likely to create two safe Democratic seats, maybe one safe Dem and one lean Dem seat, but as I posted earlier, for most Republicans, this is about which Republican will be elected from the 7th district, especially since the area the 7th covers will determine who can run and what type of Republican will be likely to win. I haven't checked, but I'm willing to bet that some Republican State Senator from Beaufort County is hoping to run for Congress in 2012.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The way population trends are going right now, a plan with two minority-barely majority districts could end up being a 7-0 GOP plan by the end of the decade.  Why do you think Clyburn hasn't been pushing for minority majority districts?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

General Assembly has set July 26th as the date they'll come back for a special session and try to finish up redistricting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You've angered the county that must not be named, for it is very Republican and very large, by splitting it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Other than I'd split Anderson instead of Laurens and try to get at least one of Chesterfield, Cherokee, Fairfield, or Newberry counties be whole, and straighten out the Wilson/Clyburn district line that looks like a doable 1 MM district map.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

General Assembly has set July 26th as the date they'll come back for a special session and try to finish up redistricting.

Senate, as I predicted, just fell in line behind the house plan that creates a 6-1 majority.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/07/26/1912392/senate-oks-pee-dee-horry-congressional.html

Not quite, as they did have to tweak the House plan to get it passed, but it does add a Horry-centric 7th district.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's link to the amended plan the House passed this morning:

http://www.scstatehouse.gov/php/amendments.php?KEY=22629

If anyone is interested in figuring out what they changed or drawing up the final version, I'll gladly let them have that pleasure.  I'm interested, but not enough to do the work myself.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At least we won't have to worry about a useless third round of Rob Miller v. Joe Wilson, since Rob now lives in the 1st District.