Popular Democratic Governors in Red states aren't favored to move to the Senate. Same rule goes for many Blue states.
Evan Bayh and Joe Manchin?
On everything but the presidential level(usually, at that), Indiana is more of what I like to call a "burgundy state" than anything else - that is, it's way more friendly to Democrats than you'd think, this year obviously aside. West Virginia, on the other hand, is hardcore Democratic in every aspect except Presidential elections, so Manchin would have been pretty well favored to win no matter the year and no matter the candidate.
