If the election was held tomorrow between Obama and Palin

[redcommander]

How do you think they would do? How badly would Palin do? Would she win less than 10 states?

[Poundingtherock]

Well, given that she's up 15 in Texas (a larger margin than the margin by which her ticket defeated the other ticket in 2008) according to a pollster not affiliated with a left-wing blog, I think it's fair to say that your assessment is quite wrong.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2010-texas-governors-race/perry-leads-white-in-trade-group-poll/

Someone who's up 15 on Texas (a state that David Plouffe and howard dean hilariously claimed would go obama's way in 2012) is going to win a lot more than the number of states that you foolishly predicted.

[Phony Moderate]

Well, given that she's up 15 in Texas (a larger margin than the margin by which her ticket defeated the other ticket in 2008) according to a pollster not affiliated with a left-wing blog, I think it's fair to say that your assessment is quite wrong.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2010-texas-governors-race/perry-leads-white-in-trade-group-poll/

Someone who's up 15 on Texas (a state that David Plouffe and howard dean hilariously claimed would go obama's way in 2012) is going to win a lot more than the number of states that you foolishly predicted.

Oh shut the f**k up will you.

[Psychic Octopus]

Obama - 417 Electoral Votes
Palin - 121 Electoral Votes

This is essentially my prediction for should it be held next week, as well as should it be held in 2012. I don't think it's far off the mark, really. Give or take the Dakotas and SC. Obama would have the normal swing states locked down easily, so I assume he'd be able to expand the playing field.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Obama - 417 Electoral Votes
Palin - 121 Electoral Votes

This is essentially my prediction for should it be held next week, as well as should it be held in 2012. I don't think it's far off the mark, really. Give or take the Dakotas and SC. Obama would have the normal swing states locked down easily, so I assume he'd be able to expand the playing field.

^^^^^

[Liberalrocks]

Yes I agree with the above map. I believe Obama would easily hit 400 electoral votes against Palin. Palin may win South Carolina by a razor thin margin. I do believe Obama would pick up Georgia in such a landslide scenario. As discussed above he would have resources to devout to it if the playing field were expanded. Texas would go to Palin, but not by the comfortable margin republicans have been use to. I could see her narrowly carrying it. 52-48 or something like that.

[Badger]

Obama would likely carry NE-1 under this scenario.

On a straight PVI conversion from 08 he'd need about an 18.5% win nationally to carry Texas. And against Palin he just might do it.

[Poundingtherock]

Care to explain how that map is consistent with a 15-point lead in Texas for Palin according to a pollster not employed by a left-wing blog?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Because it's Palin, and since you seem to hold onto ONE single poll which says Palin is ahead of Obama in Texas by 15... so?

....and Obama is crushing her in pretty much EVERY SINGLE poll where the election will be decided.

And I'm being very kind to Palin

396 - 142

If Palin is the GOP nominee... Obama will... destroy her.

[opebo]

[Eraserhead]

Obama - 417 Electoral Votes
Palin - 121 Electoral Votes

This is essentially my prediction for should it be held next week, as well as should it be held in 2012. I don't think it's far off the mark, really. Give or take the Dakotas and SC. Obama would have the normal swing states locked down easily, so I assume he'd be able to expand the playing field.

I agree with this except I'd give Palin South Carolina, North Dakota and (maybe) Arizona.

[Yelnoc]

This is a National 5% shift from R to D.  It looks about right to me.

[pbrower2a]

This is a National 5% shift from R to D.  It looks about right to me.

Two changes, but one small one and a giant:

[Mehmentum]

I think Palin will keep the Dakotas, Texas, and South Carolina.  Missouri, Arizona, Montana, and Georgia will be Obama pickups.

Image Link

[exopolitician]

I think Palin will keep the Dakotas, Texas, and South Carolina.  Missouri, Arizona, Montana, and Georgia will be Obama pickups.

Image Link

This.

[Niemeyerite]

This is a National 5% shift from R to D.  It looks about right to me.

Two changes, but one small one and a giant:

This

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Honestly, who's going to vote for Palin now after the crosshairs stuff?

Wait, I forgot. The media likes her.

[DS0816]

John McCain didn't hold Texas by 15%. If Sarah Palin were to be elected president of the United States in 2012, she'd take McCain's margin in the Lone Star state of 11.76% and shoot it north by, say, 10%.

If Palin were to be the nominee and carry Tex. by 15%, while not unseating President Obama, it would be the result of a national shift between 2.50% to 5.00% for Obama. And Palin would play well in Tex.

The number doesn't jive.

[DS0816]

Because it’s Palin, and since you seem to hold onto ONE single poll which says Palin is ahead of Obama in Texas by 15... so?

....and Obama is crushing her in pretty much EVERY SINGLE poll where the election will be decided.

And I’m being very kind to Palin

396 - 142

If Palin is the GOP nominee... Obama will... destroy her.

Adjusting your map…

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Adjusting your map…

What's the yellow for? Palin would probably be crushed, but not that badly.

[Franzl]

Wait, I forgot. The media likes her.

Since when?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Wait, I forgot. The media likes her.

Since when?

Ever since anybody outside Alaska knew who she was.

[Liberalrocks]

Adjusting your map…

What's the yellow for? Palin would probably be crushed, but not that badly.

I agree the states in yellow would all go to the moose kiler in addition to Kansas and most of Nebraska. The Dakotas and Texas would also likely go to her or be tossups.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait, I forgot. The media likes her.

Since when?

Ever since anybody outside Alaska knew who she was.

I think that just naturally happens when you're picked as the running mate for a major party Presidential  nominee. Just a hunch though.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Wait, I forgot. The media likes her.

Since when?

Ever since anybody outside Alaska knew who she was.

I think that just naturally happens when you're picked as the running mate for a major party Presidential  nominee. Just a hunch though.

Then why does it only happen for Republicans?